Global Climate Models (global + climate_models)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Avifauna response to hurricanes: regional changes in community similarity

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2010
CHADWICK D. RITTENHOUSE
Abstract Global climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as hurricanes, which may abruptly alter ecological processes in forests and thus affect avian diversity. Developing appropriate conservation measures necessitates identifying patterns of avifauna response to hurricanes. We sought to answer two questions: (1) does avian diversity, measured as community similarity, abundance, and species richness, change in areas affected by hurricane compared with unaffected areas, and (2) what factors are associated with the change(s) in avian diversity? We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data, hurricane track information, and a time series of Landsat images in a repeated measures framework to answer these questions. Our results show a decrease in community similarity in the first posthurricane breeding season for all species as a group, and for species that nest in the midstory and canopy. We also found significant effects of hurricanes on abundance for species that breed in urban and woodland habitats, but not on the richness of any guild. In total, hurricanes produced regional changes in community similarity largely without significant loss of richness or overall avian abundance. We identified several potential mechanisms for these changes in avian diversity, including hurricane-induced changes in forest habitat and the use of refugia by birds displaced from hurricane-damaged forests. The prospect of increasing frequency and intensity of hurricanes is not likely to invoke a conservation crisis for birds provided we maintain sufficient forest habitat so that avifauna can respond to hurricanes by shifting to areas of suitable habitat. [source]


The sensitivity of annual grassland carbon cycling to the quantity and timing of rainfall

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2008
WENDY W. CHOU
Abstract Global climate models predict significant changes to the rainfall regimes of the grassland biome, where C cycling is particularly sensitive to the amount and timing of precipitation. We explored the effects of both natural interannual rainfall variability and experimental rainfall additions on net C storage and loss in annual grasslands. Soil respiration and net primary productivity (NPP) were measured in treatment and control plots over four growing seasons (water years, or WYs) that varied in wet-season length and the quantity of rainfall. In treatment plots, we increased total rainfall by 50% above ambient levels and simulated one early- and one late-season storm. The early- and late-season rain events significantly increased soil respiration for 2,4 weeks after wetting, while augmentation of wet-season rainfall had no significant effect. Interannual variability in precipitation had large and significant effects on C cycling. We observed a significant positive relationship between annual rainfall and aboveground NPP across the study (P=0.01, r2=0.69). Changes in the seasonal timing of rainfall significantly affected soil respiration. Abundant rainfall late in the wet season in WY 2004, a year with average total rainfall, led to greater net ecosystem C losses due to a ,50% increase in soil respiration relative to other years. Our results suggest that C cycling in annual grasslands will be less sensitive to changes in rainfall quantity and more affected by altered seasonal timing of rainfall, with a longer or later wet season resulting in significant C losses from annual grasslands. [source]


Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of Recent Modeling Strategies

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 7 2010
Claudia Teutschbein
This article reviews recent applications of regional climate model (RCM) output for hydrological impact studies. Traditionally, simulations of global climate models (GCMs) have been the basis of impact studies in hydrology. Progress in regional climate modeling has recently made the use of RCM data more attractive, although the application of RCM simulations is challenging due to often considerable biases. The main modeling strategies used in recent studies can be classified into (i) very simple constructed modeling chains with a single RCM (S-RCM approach) and (ii) highly complex and computing-power intensive model systems based on RCM ensembles (E-RCM approach). In the literature many examples for S-RCM can be found, while comprehensive E-RCM studies with consideration of several sources of uncertainties such as different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, GCMs, RCMs and hydrological models are less common. Based on a case study using control-run simulations of fourteen different RCMs for five Swedish catchments, the biases of and the variability between different RCMs are demonstrated. We provide a short overview of possible bias-correction methods and show that inter-RCM variability also has substantial consequences for hydrological impact studies in addition to other sources of uncertainties in the modeling chain. We propose that due to model bias and inter-model variability, the S-RCM approach is not advised and ensembles of RCM simulations (E-RCM) should be used. The application of bias-correction methods is recommended, although one should also be aware that the need for bias corrections adds significantly to uncertainties in modeling climate change impacts. [source]


Connecting Atmosphere and Wetland: Energy and Water Vapour Exchange

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 4 2008
Peter M. Lafleur
Wetlands are ubiquitous over the globe, comprise a vast array of ecosystem types and are of great ecological and social importance. Their functioning is intimately tied to the atmosphere by the energy and mass exchanges that take place across the wetland,atmosphere boundary. This article examines recent research into these exchanges, with an emphasis on the water vapour exchange. Although broad classes of wetland type, such as fen, bog and marsh, can be defined using ecological or hydrologic metrics, distinct difference in energy exchanges between the classes cannot be found. This arises because there are many factors that control the energy exchanges and interplay of these factors is unique to every wetland ecosystem. Wetlands are more similar in their radiation balances than in the partitioning of this energy into conductive and turbulent heat fluxes. This is especially true of evapotranspiration (ET) rates, which vary considerably among and within wetland classes. A global survey of wetland ET studies shows that location has little to do with ET rates and that variation in rates is largely determined by local climate and wetland characteristics. Recent modelling studies suggest that although wetlands occupy a small portion of the global land surface, their water and energy exchanges may be important in regional and global climates. Although the number of studies of wetland,atmosphere interactions has increased in recent years more research is needed. Five key areas of study are identified: (i) the importance of moss covers, (ii) lack of study in tropical systems, (iii) inclusion of wetlands in global climate models, (iv) importance of microforms in wetlands and their scaling to the whole ecosystem, and (v) the paucity of annual ET measurements. [source]


Analysis of snow cover variability and change in Québec, 1948,2005

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2010
Ross D. Brown
Abstract The spatial and temporal characteristics of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and fall and spring snow cover duration (SCD) were analysed over Québec and adjacent area for snow seasons 1948/1949,2004/2005 using reconstructed daily snow depth and SWE. Snow cover variability in Québec was found to be significantly correlated with most of the major atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the climate of eastern North America but the influence was characterized by strong multidecadal-scale variability. The strongest and most consistent relationship was observed between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and fall SCD variability over western Québec. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a limited impact on Québec snow cover. Evidence was found for a shift in circulation over the study region around 1980 associated with an abrupt increase in sea level pressure (SLP) and decreases in winter precipitation, snow depth and SWE over much of southern Québec, as well as changes in the atmospheric patterns with significant links to snow cover variability. Trend analysis of the reconstructed snow cover over 1948,2005 provided evidence of a clear north,south gradient in SWEmax and spring SCD with significant local decreases over southern Québec and significant local increases over north-central Québec. The increase in SWEmax over northern Québec is consistent with proxy data (lake levels, tree growth forms, permafrost temperatures), with hemispheric-wide trends of increasing precipitation over higher latitudes, and with projections of global climate models (GCMs). Copyright © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons. Ltd [source]


Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 7 2009
Jennifer C. Adam
Abstract For most of the global land area poleward of about 40° latitude, snow plays an important role in the water cycle. The (seasonal) timing of runoff in these areas is especially sensitive to projected losses of snowpack associated with warming trends, whereas projected (annual) runoff volume changes are primarily associated with precipitation changes, and to a lesser extent, with changes in evapotranspiration (ET). Regional studies in the USA (and especially the western USA) suggest that hydrologic adjustments to a warming climate have been ongoing since the mid-twentieth century. We extend the insights extracted from the western USA to the global scale using a physically based hydrologic model to assess the effects of systematic changes in precipitation and temperature on snow-affected portions of the global land area as projected by a suite of global climate models. While annual (and in some cases seasonal) changes in precipitation are a key driver of projected changes in annual runoff, we find, as in the western USA, that projected warming produces strong decreases in winter snow accumulation and spring snowmelt over much of the affected area regardless of precipitation change. Decreased snowpack produces decreases in warm-season runoff in many mid- to high-latitude areas where precipitation changes are either moderately positive or negative in the future projections. Exceptions, however, occur in some high-latitude areas, particular in Eurasia, where changes in projected precipitation are large enough to result in increased, rather than decreased, snow accumulation. Overall, projected changes in snowpack and the timing of snowmelt-derived runoff are largest near the boundaries of the areas that currently experience substantial snowfall, and at least qualitatively, they mirror the character of observed changes in the western USA. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis: where are we now?

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2002
Christel Prudhomme
Abstract The issues of downscaling the results from global climate models (GCMs) to a scale relevant for hydrological impact studies are examined. GCM outputs, typically at a spatial resolution of around 3° latitude and 4° longitude, are currently not considered reliable at time scales shorter than 1 month. Continuous rainfall-runoff modelling for flood regime assessment requires input at the daily or even hourly time-step. A review of the different methodologies suggested in the literature to downscale GCM results at smaller spatial and temporal resolutions is presented. The methods, from simple interpolation to more sophisticated dynamical modelling, through multiple regression and weather generators, are, however, mostly based directly on GCM outputs, sometimes at daily time-step. The approach adopted is a simple, empirical methodology based on modelled monthly changes from the HadCM2 greenhouse gases experiment for the time horizon 2050s. Three daily rainfall scenarios are derived from the same set of monthly changes, representing different possible changes in the rainfall regime. The first scenario represents an increase of the occurrence of frontal systems, corresponding to a decrease in the rainfall intensity; the second corresponds to an increase in convective storm-type rainfall, characterized by extreme events with higher intensity; the third one assumes an increase in the monthly rainfall without any change in rainfall variability. A continuous daily rainfall-runoff model, calibrated for the Severn catchment, was used to generate daily flow series for the 1961,90 baseline period and the 2050s, and a peaks-over-threshold analysis was undertaken to produce flood frequency distributions for the two time horizons. Though the three scenarios lead to an increase in the magnitude and the frequency of the extreme flood events, the impact is strongly influenced by the type of daily rainfall scenario applied. We conclude that if the next generation of GCMs produce more reliable rainfall variance estimates, then more appropriate ways of deriving rainfall scenarios could be developed using weather generators rather than empirical methods. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Simple radiative models for surface warming and upper-troposphere cooling

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 11 2009
P. N. Keating
Abstract A simple model of greenhouse-gas radiative processes intended to make the surface-warming effect of water-vapour and CO2 absorption more readily understandable leads to a conclusion that the greenhouse gases also cool the upper troposphere. The results from the simple model are compared with experimental observations, and a functional form for the decline of vertical convection and water-vapour radiation near the tropopause is derived from previously unexplained high-altitude cooling-trend data. A possible reason why global climate models do not show the observed upper-troposphere cooling trend is tentatively suggested. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Possible impacts of anthropogenic and natural aerosols on Australian climate: a review

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2009
Leon D. Rotstayn
Abstract A review is presented of the aerosol,climate interaction with specific focus on the Australian region. The uncertainties associated with this interaction are much larger than those associated with greenhouse gases or other forcing agents, and are currently a major obstacle in climate-change research. However, new research suggests that aerosol effects are of comparable importance to greenhouse gases as a driver of recent climate trends in the Southern Hemisphere, including Australia. A significant new result from climate modelling is that anthropogenic aerosol over Asia affects meridional temperature gradients and atmospheric circulation, and may have caused an increase in rainfall over north-western Australia. Global ocean circulation provides another mechanism whereby aerosol changes in the Northern Hemisphere can affect climate in the Southern Hemisphere, suggesting an urgent need for further targeted studies using coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate models. To better model climate variability and climate change in the Australian region, more research is needed into the sources of aerosol and their precursors, their atmospheric distributions and transformations, and how to incorporate these processes robustly in global climate models (GCMs). The following priorities are suggested for further research in Australia linking aerosol observations and modelling: natural aerosol over the Southern Ocean, tropical biomass-burning aerosol in Indonesia and Australia, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from volatile organic compounds (VOCs), wind-blown dust and modulation of rainfall by anthropogenic aerosol. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Sensitivity of Alpine snow cover to European temperature

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2007
Michael Hantel
Abstract The number of days with snow cover at 268 Alpine climate stations in the winters of 1961,2000 has been investigated with respect to the mean winter temperature over Europe. The corresponding description, originally developed for Austria and recently applied to Switzerland, consists in fitting a logistic curve to the observed data. The slope of this curve, originally the hyperbolic tangent function, is interpreted as the sensitivity of the snow duration-temperature relationship. Here we first demonstrate with a physical-statistical model that the proper logistic curve is not the hyperbolic tangent, but the error function, generated through the pdf of the fluctuating temperature; the slope of this curve is inversely proportional to the standard deviation of temperature. Since the station temperature used for this local model is on a scale much too small for global climate models, we simulate, secondly, the temperature with the concept of the Alpine temperature: It is the spatial Taylor expansion of the seasonal European temperature in vertical and horizontal directions. This improved model yields, for the same Austrian and Swiss data, both a better fit and a slightly smaller sensitivity of the snow-temperature curve than the original hyperbolic model. Thirdly we apply our improved model to a considerably larger Alpine data set comprising also data from France, Germany, Italy and Slovenia and find a sensitivity of about , 0.33 ( ± 0.03) per degree warming. It is representative for the entire Alpine region and corresponds to a maximum reduction of the snow cover of 30 days in winter at a height of 700 m for 1° European warming. The implication is that the relation between the natural fluctuations of winter snow duration and European temperature may be an estimate for a trend of snow duration in case of a future European temperature trend. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Simulated changes in active/break spells during the Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: assessment from selected coupled atmosphere,ocean global climate models

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2007
Sujata K. Mandke
Abstract The simulations by ten coupled GCMs under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report-4 are used to study the implication of possible global climate change on active/break spells of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The validation of the mean daily cycle of the summer monsoon precipitation over the Indian core region and the spatial pattern of the ISM precipitation climatology with observation suggest that six models simulate fairly well, whereas four models differ from observation. Thus, the identification of active/break spells is confined to six models. The sensitivity to climate change has been assessed from two experiments, namely, 1% per year CO2 increase to doubling and 1% per year CO2 increase to quadrupling. The changes in the daily mean cycle and the standard deviation of precipitation, frequency, and duration of active/break spells in future climate change are uncertain among the models and at times among two experiments. The break composite precipitation anomalies strengthen and spread moderately (significantly) in the doubled (quadrupled) CO2 experiment. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2006
B. C. Hewitson
Abstract This paper discusses issues that surround the development of empirical downscaling techniques as context for presenting a new approach based on self-organizing maps (SOMs). The technique is applied to the downscaling of daily precipitation over South Africa. SOMs are used to characterize the state of the atmosphere on a localized domain surrounding each target location on the basis of NCEP 6-hourly reanalysis data from 1979 to 2002, and using surface and 700-hPa u and v wind vectors, specific and relative humidities, and surface temperature. Each unique atmospheric state is associated with an observed precipitation probability density function (PDF). Future climate states are derived from three global climate models (GCMs): HadAM3, ECHAM4.5, CSIRO Mk2. In each case, the GCM data are mapped to the NCEP SOMs for each target location and a precipitation value is drawn at random from the associated precipitation PDF. The downscaling approach combines the advantages of a direct transfer function and a stochastic weather generator, and provides an indication of the strength of the regional versus stochastic forcing, as well as a measure of stationarity in the atmosphere,precipitation relationship. The methodology is applied to South Africa. The downscaling reveals a similarity in the projected climate change between the models. Each GCM projects similar changes in atmospheric state and they converge on a downscaled solution that points to increased summer rainfall in the interior and the eastern part of the country, and a decrease in winter rainfall in the Western Cape. The actual GCM precipitation projections from the three models show large areas of intermodel disagreement, suggesting that the model differences may be due to their precipitation parameterization schemes, rather than to basic disagreements in their projections of the changing atmospheric state over South Africa. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]


Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run magnitude and severity

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2005
Murray C. Peel
Abstract Fluctuations of wet and dry years have long been investigated in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the second of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the magnitude, also known as the intensity, and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs are investigated. In the first paper the length of dry runs was investigated. Periods of consecutive dry years are associated with drought and the attendant physical and economic stresses that are placed on society. Run magnitudes of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. For both annual precipitation and runoff, run magnitude was found to be predominately related to interannual variability and to a lesser extent skewness. Run magnitude of annual runoff was observed to be greater than that for annual precipitation, due to annual runoff having a higher coefficient of variation than annual precipitation. Continental differences in run magnitude of annual runoff were observed and were consistent with continental differences in interannual variability reported previously. Annual run severity was also investigated and found to be independent of run length and strongly related to run magnitude. These findings differ from previously published work; this difference is primarily due to the methodology of comparing run metrics between stations (used in this paper) rather than at a station (previous research). The relationships between run magnitude, severity and interannual variability highlight the importance of adequately reproducing interannual variability within global climate models for future modelling of drought scenarios, as well as having economic implications for drought relief and management policy-making. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]


Modelling climate change in West African Sahel rainfall (1931,90) as an artifact of changing station locations

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2004
Adrian Chappell
Abstract Since the major droughts in the West African Sahel during the 1970s, it has been widely asserted that mean annual summer rainfall has declined since the late 1960s. Explanation of this persistent regional drying trend was important for famine early-warning and global climate models. However, the network of rainfall stations changed considerably during that recent period of desiccation. Furthermore, it was difficult to reconcile the calculation of a simple mean value for a region known to have a complex spatial and temporal rainfall pattern. A simple model separated the Sahel into ,wet' and ,dry' regions. This model was inverted against mean annual summer rainfall for the Sahel between 1931 and 1990. Model predictions were found to be insensitive to initial starting conditions. The optimized parameters explained 87% of the variation in observed mean annual summer rainfall. The model predicted the mean annual rainfall in the wet ,coastal' and dry ,continental' regions of the Sahel to be 973 mm and 142 mm respectively. Consequently, the predicted long-term mean annual summer rainfall was 558 mm, 15% greater than that of the observed long-term mean (417 mm). The mean annual summer rainfall for the region was corrected by removing the influence of changing station locations over the study period. No persistent decline was found in mean annual summer rainfall, which suggested that the perceived drying trend was an artifact of the crude statistical aggregation of the data and historical changes in the climate station networks. The absence of a decline in rainfall questioned the validity of the hypotheses and speculations for the causes of the drying trend in the region and its effects on global climate change. It also increased the likelihood that changes over time in other regional and global climate station networks have influenced the performance and interpretation of global climate models. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Evaluating Antarctic sea ice variability and its teleconnections in global climate models

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2002
Jiping Liu
Abstract This study evaluates simulated Antarctic sea ice edge (SIE) variability and its teleconnections in three global coupled climate models (GISS, NCAR and GFDL) against the observations. All models do a reasonable job in simulating the seasonal advance and retreat of the Antarctic sea ice fields. The simulated GISS and NCAR SIE distributions are in agreement with observations in summer and autumn, whereas the GFDL model does best in spring and winter. A common problem is the poor simulation of the observed SIE in the Weddell Sea. All models are not particularly good at simulating the observed regionally varying SIE trends. A comparison of dominant empirical orthogonal function modes of surface air temperature (SAT) variability in each model associated with observed modes show that the models generally capture features of the more prominent covarying spatial patterns such as an El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern in the tropical Pacific. The simulated teleconnection patterns between detrended Antarctic SIE anomalies and detrended global SAT anomalies in each model are evaluated for comparison with observed teleconnection patterns. All models capture the ENSO-like phenomenon to some degree. Also, the GISS and NCAR models capture the Antarctic dipole pattern and meridional banding structure through the Pacific. The Antarctic SIE regions showing the strongest extrapolar teleconnections differ among the models and between the models and observations. Almost all models miss the observed polar,extrapolar teleconnections in the central Indian, western extreme of the tropical and southern Pacific, and over the tropical continents. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]


From bobolinks to bears: interjecting geographical history into ecological studies, environmental interpretation, and conservation planning

JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2000
David R. Foster
Abstract In these days of supercomputer-based global climate models, large ecosystem experiments including Biosphere II, and aircraft-borne sensors of ozone holes it is often overlooked that many fundamental insights into ecological processes and major environmental issues come not through reductionist or high-tech studies of modern conditions but from thoughtful consideration of nature's history. In fact, it is foolhardy to make any ecological interpretation of modern landscapes or environments or to formulate policy in conservation or natural resource management without an historical context that extends back decades, at least, but preferably centuries or millennia. Oftentimes, the ecological and conservation communities, in their search for more detail on the present and simulation of the future, appear to have forgotten the value of a deep historical perspective in research and application. However, the willingness of the geographical sciences to embrace broad temporal and spatial perspectives and to consider cultural as well as natural processes is worth emulating as we address environmental subjects in the new millennium. [source]


A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models,

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2009
Paul J. Block
Abstract:, Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974-1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi-model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast. [source]


Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

MOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 17 2010
VICTORIA L. SORK
Abstract Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971,2000) and future (2070,2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. [source]


Effects of Altered Temperature and Precipitation on Desert Protozoa Associated with Biological Soil Crusts

THE JOURNAL OF EUKARYOTIC MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 6 2006
BRIAN J. DARBY
ABSTRACT. Biological soil crusts are diverse assemblages of bacteria, cyanobacteria, algae, fungi, lichens, and mosses that cover much of arid land soils. The objective of this study was to quantify protozoa associated with biological soil crusts and test the response of protozoa to increased temperature and precipitation as is predicted by some global climate models. Protozoa were more abundant when associated with cyanobacteria/lichen crusts than with cyanobacteria crusts alone. Amoebae, flagellates, and ciliates originating from the Colorado Plateau desert (cool desert, primarily winter precipitation) declined 50-, 10-, and 100-fold, respectively, when moved in field mesocosms to the Chihuahuan Desert (hot desert, primarily summer rain). However, this was not observed in protozoa collected from the Chihuahuan Desert and moved to the Sonoran desert (hot desert, also summer rain, but warmer than Chihuahuan Desert). Protozoa in culture began to encyst at 37°C. Cysts survived the upper end of daily temperatures (37,55°C), and could be stimulated to excyst if temperatures were reduced to 15°C or lower. Results from this study suggest that cool desert protozoa are influenced negatively by increased summer precipitation during excessive summer temperatures, and that desert protozoa may be adapted to a specific desert's temperature and precipitation regime. [source]


Infrared properties of cirrus clouds in climate models

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 623 2007
Ruben Rodriguez De Leon
Abstract The representation in global climate models of the infrared radiative properties of cirrus clouds is assessed by comparing their radiative forcing calculated using airborne in-situ -measured size distributions and retrievals from combined lidar and Doppler-radar data. The latter are fitted to a bimodal function, allowing the inclusion of the size distribution's shape, normally omitted in the characterization of cirrus. The impact of the particle size distribution's shape on the atmosphere's radiation fields is evaluated using a two-stream radiative code. The comparisons show that the effect of the shape of the size distributions used to calculate the radiative forcing of a cirrus layer composed of hexagonal cylinders is not negligible, evidencing the ambiguity linked to the commonly used two-parameter (effective radius and ice water content) characterization of cirrus, and showing that the inclusion of a simple measure of the relative concentration of small particles improves its radiative parameterization. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Sensitivity of moist convection to environmental humidity

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 604 2004
S. H. Derbyshire
Abstract As part of the EUROCS (EUROpean Cloud Systems study) project, cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and parallel single-column model (SCM) tests of the sensitivity of moist atmospheric convection to midtropospheric humidity are presented. This sensitivity is broadly supported by observations and some previous model studies, but is still poorly quantified. Mixing between clouds and environment is a key mechanism, central to many of the fundamental differences between convection schemes. Here, we define an idealized quasi-steady ,testbed', in which the large-scale environment is assumed to adjust the local mean profiles on a timescale of one hour. We then test sensitivity to the target profiles at heights above 2 km. Two independent CRMs agree reasonably well in their response to the different background profiles and both show strong deep precipitating convection in the more moist cases, but only shallow convection in the driest case. The CRM results also appear to be numerically robust. All the SCMs, most of which are one-dimensional versions of global climate models (GCMs), show sensitivity to humidity but differ in various ways from the CRMs. Some of the SCMs are improved in the light of these comparisons, with GCM improvements documented elsewhere. © Crown copyright, 2004. [source]


Antarctic winter tropospheric warming,the potential role of polar stratospheric clouds, a sensitivity study

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 4 2009
T. A. Lachlan-Cope
Abstract Over the last 30 years, Antarctic mid-tropospheric temperatures in winter have increased by 0.5 K per decade, the largest regional tropospheric warming observed. Over this period, amounts of polar stratospheric cloud(PSC) have also increased, as rising CO2 concentrations cooled the stratosphere. By imposing an idealisation of these increases in PSC within the radiation scheme of an atmosphere-only general circulation model, we find that they could have contributed to the observed warming. The present generation of global climate models do not properly represent PSCs, and so these results demonstrate the need to improve the representation of PSCs. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright [source]