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Future Years (future + year)
Selected AbstractsCLIMATE CHANGE AND FISHERIES: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACT IN ICELAND AND GREENLANDNATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 2 2007RAGNAR ARNASON ABSTRACT. . Climate changes in the 21st century are expected to significantly increase ocean temperatures and modify other oceanographic conditions in the North Atlantic. Marine biological research suggests that the impacts on the commercially most important fish stocks in the Icelandic-Greenland ecosystem may well be quite substantial. This will obviously lead to a corresponding impact on the economies of these two countries. However, the timing, extent and biological impact of global warming is quite uncertain. As a result the economic impact is similarly uncertain. This paper attempts to provide estimates of the impact of altered fish stocks due to global warming on the Icelandic and Greenland economies. The approach is one of stochastic simulations. This involves essentially three steps. The first is to obtain predictions of the impact of global warming on fish stocks and the associated probability distribution. For this we rely on recent marine biological predictions. The second step is to estimate the role of the fisheries sector in the two economies. This is done with the help of modern econometric techniques based on economic growth theory and historical data. Obviously these estimates are also subject to stochastic errors and uncertainty. The third step is to carry out Monte Carlo simulations on the basis of the above model and the associated uncertainties. The result of the Monte Carlo simulations consists of a set of dynamic paths for GDP over time with an expected value and a probability distribution for each future year. On this basis it is possible to calculate confidence intervals for the most likely path of GDP over time. The results indicate that the fisheries impact of global warming on the Icelandic GDP is more likely to be positive than negative but unlikely to be of significant magnitude compared to historical economic growth rates and fluctuations. The uncertainty of this prediction, however, is large. For Greenland, the impact on fish stocks and the GDP is highly likely to be positive and quite substantial relative to the current GDP. Due to less knowledge of the relationship between the fisheries sector and the Greenland economy, however, the confidence interval of this prediction is even wider than in the case of Iceland. [source] Meshing noise effect in design of experiments using computer experimentsENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 5-6 2002J. P. Caire Abstract This work is intended to show the influence of grid length and meshing technique on the empirical modeling of current distribution in an industrial electroplating reactor. This study confirms the interest of usual DOEs for computer experiments. Any 2D mesh generator induced, in this sensitive case, a significant noise representing only less than 5 per cent of the response. The ,experimental error' obeys a normal distribution and the associated replicate SDs represents 20 per cent of the global residual standard deviation. The geometry seems also to influence the corresponding noise. If the current density uniformity could be considered as a severe test, it is obvious that the noise generated by meshing would be amplified for 3D grids that will be in common use in future years. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Risk Segmentation Related to the Offering of a Consumer-Directed Health Plan: A Case Study of Humana Inc.HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH, Issue 4p2 2004Laura A. Tollen Objective. To determine whether the offering of a consumer-directed health plan (CDHP) is likely to cause risk segmentation in an employer group. Study Setting and Data Source. The study population comprises the approximately 10,000 people (employees and dependents) enrolled as members of the employee health benefit program of Humana Inc. at its headquarters in Louisville, Kentucky, during the benefit years starting July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2001. This analysis is based on primary collection of claims, enrollment, and employment data for those employees and dependents. Study Design. This is a case study of the experience of a single employer in offering two consumer-directed health plan options ("Coverage First 1" and "Coverage First 2") to its employees. We assessed the risk profile of those choosing the Coverage First plans and those remaining in more traditional health maintenance organization (HMO) and preferred provider organization (PPO) coverage. Risk was measured using prior claims (in dollars per member per month), prior utilization (admissions/1,000; average length of stay; prescriptions/1,000; physician office visit services/1,000), a pharmacy-based risk assessment tool (developed by Ingenix), and demographics. Data Collection/Extraction Methods. Complete claims and administrative data were provided by Humana Inc. for the two-year study period. Unique identifiers enabled us to track subscribers' individual enrollment and utilization over this period. Principal Findings. Based on demographic data alone, there did not appear to be a difference in the risk profiles of those choosing versus not choosing Coverage First. However, based on prior claims and prior use data, it appeared that those who chose Coverage First were healthier than those electing to remain in more traditional coverage. For each of five services, prior-year usage by people who subsequently enrolled in Coverage First 1 (CF1) was below 60 percent of the average for the whole group. Hospital and maternity admissions per thousand were less than 30 percent of the overall average; length of stay per hospital admission, physician office services per thousand, and prescriptions per thousand were all between 50 and 60 percent of the overall average. Coverage First 2 (CF2) subscribers' prior use of services was somewhat higher than CF1 subscribers', but it was still below average in every category. As with prior use, prior claims data indicated that Coverage First subscribers were healthier than average, with prior total claims less than 50 percent of average. Conclusions. In this case, the offering of high-deductible or consumer-directed health plan options alongside more traditional options caused risk segmentation within an employer group. The extent to which these findings are applicable to other cases will depend on many factors, including the employer premium contribution policies and employees' perception of the value of the various plan options. Further research is needed to determine whether risk segmentation will worsen in future years for this employer and if so, whether it will cause premiums for more traditional health plans to increase. [source] Mass Higher Education and the English: Wherein the Colleges?HIGHER EDUCATION QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2003Gareth Parry One of the distinctive features of the English encounter with mass higher education has been the uncertain and ambiguous role of further education colleges as providers of undergraduate education. Both before and during the major expansion that marked the shift to a mass scale of higher education in England, the higher education offered by colleges in the further education sector was commonly regarded as a residual or ancillary activity; its courses mostly at levels below the first degree and its growth in numbers among the slowest in higher education. In the period that followed, these same colleges were accorded a special mission in the delivery of short-cycle undergraduate education and, through their involvement in foundation degrees, were expected to lead a large part of the expansion in future years. The elevation of this provision, from a zone of ,low' or no policy to one of ,high' policy, has coincided with a radical reform of the planning, funding and quality arrangements for post-compulsory education. Under conditions less than favourable to the achievement of their higher education goals, colleges remain the responsibility of one administrative sector and higher education institutions the responsibility of another. [source] Social security pensionable ages in OECD countries: 1949-2035INTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY REVIEW, Issue 1 2007John Turner This paper examines the pensionable or early retirement age in social security in 23 OECD countries over the years 1949-2035. The policies for future years are those in current law, with some not being fully effective until 2035. The paper documents a pattern of decreasing pensionable ages that reversed in the 1990s, with many countries raising pensionable ages since the beginning of that decade, though generally with future effective dates. Pensionable-age policy provides insight into broader issues in social policy, such as whether social policies across countries have converged over time. The paper also examines the time pattern in the movement toward gender equality in social programmes. [source] Experiences of U.S. Military Nurses in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, 2003,2009JOURNAL OF NURSING SCHOLARSHIP, Issue 1 2010Elizabeth Scannell-Desch RN Abstract Purpose: The purpose of this study is to describe the lived experience of U.S. military nurses who served in Iraq or Afghanistan during the war years 2003 to 2009, and life after returning from war. Methods: Colaizzi's phenomenological method guided discovery. This method includes elements of both descriptive and interpretive phenomenology. The sample consisted of 37 military nurses who served in the Army, Navy, or Air Force in the Iraq or Afghanistan wars. Four data-generating questions guided the interview process. Most interviews were face-to-face and conducted in naturalistic settings chosen by the participants. Several interviews were conducted telephonically due to geographic constraints. Data analysis followed Colaizzi's method of analysis. Seven themes emerged from the data, including "deploying to war;""remembrance of war: most chaotic scene;""nurses in harm's way: more than I bargained for;""kinship and bonding: my military family;""my war stress: I'm a different person now;""professional growth: expanding my skills;" and "listen to me: advice to deploying nurses." Analysis continued until data saturation was achieved. Results: Results indicated that wartime deployment was a difficult challenge, lessons learned should be shared with nurses deploying in future years, homecoming was more difficult than most nurses anticipated, and reintegration after coming home takes time and effort. Conclusions: Nursing in war is a unique experience regardless of education, preparation and training. There are a myriad of variables that enter into the experience and effect outcomes, both personal and professional. Clinical Relevance: Wartime nursing is a reality in the current clinical practice arena. War takes its toll on everyone involved, including the caregivers. Nurses returning from war can provide valuable insights to those that follow. [source] Demographic Issues in Longevity Risk AnalysisJOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 4 2006Eric Stallard Fundamental to the modeling of longevity risk is the specification of the assumptions used in demographic forecasting models that are designed to project past experience into future years, with or without modifications based on expert opinion about influential factors not represented in the historical data. Stochastic forecasts are required to explicitly quantify the uncertainty of forecasted cohort survival functions, including uncertainty due to process variance, parameter errors, and model misspecification errors. Current applications typically ignore the latter two sources although the potential impact of model misspecification errors is substantial. Such errors arise from a lack of understanding of the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and the implications of these factors for the future. This article reviews the literature on the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and recent efforts at deterministic and stochastic forecasting based on these data. The review reveals that plausible alternative sets of forecasting assumptions have been derived from the same sets of historical data, implying that further methodological development will be needed to integrate the various assumptions into a single coherent forecasting model. Illustrative calculations based on existing forecasts indicate that the ranges of uncertainty for older cohorts' survival functions will be at a manageable level. Uncertainty ranges for younger cohorts will be larger and the need for greater precision will likely motivate further model development. [source] Demography and reproductive strategies of a polycarpic perennial, Trillium apetalon (Trilliaceae)PLANT SPECIES BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2001MASASHI OHARA Abstract To investigate the connection between demographic strategies and reproductive strategies of a polycarpic perennial herb, Trillium apetalon Makino, we conducted three studies. First, we monitored the fate of individuals and the flowering behavior of T. apetalon for 12 years and used a transition matrix model to analyze the demography of the population. The analysis revealed that it takes a long time for individuals to go through one-leaf stage in juveniles. Elasticity analysis showed that the survival of flowering individuals was a decisive factor in the dynamics of the population. Furthermore, we found that the average remaining lifetime of flowering individuals was high relative to the other three stages. Second, to elucidate the demographic consequences of organ preformation, we investigated the development of flower buds for future years. We observed three to six flower buds per rhizome, suggesting that flower buds for the next 3,6 years were ready in advance in this plant. Third, the results of breeding experiments clarified that although this species appears to have a substantial capacity for both inbreeding and outbreeding, inbreeding plays an important role in seed production, and that crossing experiments (direct cross-pollination and self pollination) yielded similar seed-ovule ratios to those obtained from open-pollinated individuals. Our three studies suggest that the adult survival and continuous flowering strategies of T. apetalon obtained from demographic analysis are closely interlinked with breeding systems and preformation of flower buds. [source] RoboNet-II: Follow-up observations of microlensing events with a robotic network of telescopesASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 1 2009Y. Tsapras Abstract RoboNet-II uses a global network of robotic telescopes to perform follow-up observations of microlensing events in the Galactic Bulge. The current network consists of three 2 m telescopes located in Hawaii and Australia (owned by Las Cumbres Observatory) and the Canary Islands (owned by Liverpool John Moores University). In future years the network will be expanded by deploying clusters of 1 m telescopes in other suitable locations. A principal scientific aim of the RoboNet-II project is the detection of cool extra-solar planets by the method of gravitational microlensing. These detections will provide crucial constraints to models of planetary formation and orbital migration. RoboNet-II acts in coordination with the PLANET microlensing follow-up network and uses an optimization algorithm ("web-PLOP") to select the targets and a distributed scheduling paradigm (eSTAR) to execute the observations. Continuous automated assessment of the observations and anomaly detection is provided by the ARTEMiS system (© 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] Farm-level impacts of prolonged drought: is a multiyear event more than the sum of its parts?AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2010Dannele E. Peck A multiyear discrete stochastic programming model with uncertain water supplies and inter-year crop dynamics is developed to determine: (i) whether a multiyear drought's impact can be more than the sum of its parts, and (ii) whether optimal response to 1 year of drought can increase a producer's vulnerability in subsequent years of drought. A farm system that has inter-year crop dynamics, but lacks inter-annual water storage capabilities, is used as a case study to demonstrate that dynamics unrelated to large reservoirs or groundwater can necessitate a multiyear model to estimate drought's impact. Results demonstrate the importance of analysing individual years of drought in the context of previous and future years of drought. [source] Retirement: What will you do?AUSTRALIAN OCCUPATIONAL THERAPY JOURNAL, Issue 1 2010A narrative inquiry of occupation-based planning for retirement: Implications for practice Aim:,To examine, using a retrospective narrative study, the factors influencing four older people's decision to plan for the activities they would undertake once retired, the planning process undertaken and their subsequent experience of retirement. Method:,Semi-structured interviews were conducted to examine the factors influencing older people's decision to commence pre-retirement planning, the planning process undertaken and their experience of retirement. In keeping with narrative inquiry, paradigmatic-type narrative analysis led to the development of categories and subsequent themes to reveal the participants' experiences of these issues. Results:,Three themes: environmental influences, the planning process and retirement experiences: the outcome of planning, were derived from the participants' narratives. Overall, retirement activities that were continued or initiated led to a positive experience even when these planned activities were temporarily interrupted or altered. Planning for future years in retirement and older age also continued. Conclusion:,Occupational therapists have a unique understanding of the centrality of occupation to health and wellbeing. Thus occupational therapists are well-positioned to assist people identify, plan and engage in meaningful occupations outside work in retirement. [source] | ||||||||||||||||