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Future Scenarios (future + scenario)
Selected AbstractsRobust Transportation Network Design Under Demand UncertaintyCOMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING, Issue 1 2007Satish V. Ukkusuri The origin,destination trip matrices are taken as random variables with known probability distributions. Instead of finding optimal network design solutions for a given future scenario, we are concerned with solutions that are in some sense "good" for a variety of demand realizations. We introduce a definition of robustness accounting for the planner's required degree of robustness. We propose a formulation of the robust network design problem (RNDP) and develop a methodology based on genetic algorithm (GA) to solve the RNDP. The proposed model generates globally near-optimal network design solutions, f, based on the planner's input for robustness. The study makes two important contributions to the network design literature. First, robust network design solutions are significantly different from the deterministic NDPs and not accounting for them could potentially underestimate the network-wide impacts. Second, systematic evaluation of the performance of the model and solution algorithm is conducted on different test networks and budget levels to explore the efficacy of this approach. The results highlight the importance of accounting for robustness in transportation planning and the proposed approach is capable of producing high-quality solutions. [source] Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its rangeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2010JAMES W. PEARCE-HIGGINS Abstract Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority. [source] Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate-driven range dynamics of Laurus since the PlioceneGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez ABSTRACT Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio-Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum-entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO2 -doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long-term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re-open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress. [source] A simple model of the eco-hydrodynamics of the epilimnion of Lake TanganyikaFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2007JAYA NAITHANI Summary 1. The ecosystem response of Lake Tanganyika was studied using a four-component, nutrient,phytoplankton,zooplankton,detritus, phosphorus-based ecosystem model coupled to a nonlinear, reduced-gravity, circulation model. The ecosystem model, an improved version of the earlier eco-hydrodynamics model developed for Lake Tanganyika, was used to estimate the annual primary production of Lake Tanganyika and its spatial and temporal variability. The simulations were driven with the National Centres for Environmental Protection (NCEP) records for winds and solar radiation forcing. 2. The simulated annual cycles of the four ecosystem variables and the daily net primary production were compared with the observations. The comparison showed that simulations reproduced realistically the general features of the annual cycles of epilimnial phosphate, net primary production and plankton dynamics. 3. The climatic simulations for the years 1970,2006 yielded a daily averaged integrated upper layer net production ranging from 0.11 to 1.78 g C m,2 day,1 and daily averaged chlorophyll- a (chl- a) from 0.16 to 4.3 mg m,3. Although the nutrient concentrations in the epilimnion during the strong wind years were high, the net production was low, which is partly because of the greater vertical mixing, produced by strong winds, exposing the phytoplankton to low light conditions in deeper waters. The simulated annual net production and chl- a agreed quite well with observed production available in the literature. 4. We envisage using this model to predict the future scenarios of primary productivity in the lake. [source] Downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grapevine under climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2006SALINARI FRANCESCA Abstract As climate is a key agro-ecosystem driving force, climate change could have a severe impact on agriculture. Many assessments have been carried out to date on the possible effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration changes) on plant physiology. At present however, likely effects on plant pathogens have not been investigated deeply. The aim of this work was to simulate future scenarios of downy mildew (Plasmopara viticola) epidemics on grape under climate change, by combining a disease model to output from two general circulation models (GCMs). Model runs corresponding to the SRES-A2 emissions scenario, characterized by high projections of both population and greenhouse gas emissions from present to 2100, were chosen in order to investigate impacts of worst-case scenarios, among those currently available from IPCC. Three future decades were simulated (2030, 2050, 2080), using as baseline historical series of meteorological data collected from 1955 to 2001 in Acqui Terme, an important grape-growing area in the north-west of Italy. Both GCMs predicted increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in this region. The simulations obtained by combining the disease model to the two GCM outputs predicted an increase of the disease pressure in each decade: more severe epidemics were a direct consequence of more favourable temperature conditions during the months of May and June. These negative effects of increasing temperatures more than counterbalanced the effects of precipitation reductions, which alone would have diminished disease pressure. Results suggested that, as adaptation response to future climate change, more attention would have to be paid in the management of early downy mildew infections; two more fungicide sprays were necessary under the most negative climate scenario, compared with present management regimes. At the same time, increased knowledge on the effects of climate change on host,pathogen interactions will be necessary to improve current predictions. [source] Assessment of climate-change impacts on alpine discharge regimes with climate model uncertaintyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 10 2006Pascal Horton Abstract This study analyses the uncertainty induced by the use of different state-of-the-art climate models on the prediction of climate-change impacts on the runoff regimes of 11 mountainous catchments in the Swiss Alps having current proportions of glacier cover between 0 and 50%. The climate-change scenarios analysed are the result of 19 regional climate model (RCM) runs obtained for the period 2070,2099 based on two different greenhouse-gas emission scenarios (the A2 and B2 scenarios defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and on three different coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), namely HadCM3, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and ARPEGE/OPA. The hydrological response of the study catchments to the climate scenarios is simulated through a conceptual reservoir-based precipitation-runoff transformation model called GSM-SOCONT. For the glacierized catchments, the glacier surface corresponding to these future scenarios is updated through a conceptual glacier surface evolution model. The results obtained show that all climate-change scenarios induce, in all catchments, an earlier start of the snowmelt period, leading to a shift of the hydrological regimes and of the maximum monthly discharges. The mean annual runoff decreases significantly in most cases. For the glacierized catchments, the simulated regime modifications are mainly due to an increase of the mean temperature and the corresponding impacts on the snow accumulation and melting processes. The hydrological regime of the catchments located at lower altitudes is more strongly affected by the changes of the seasonal precipitation. For a given emission scenario, the simulated regime modifications of all catchments are highly variable for the different RCM runs. This variability is induced by the driving AOGCM, but also in large part by the inter-RCM variability. The differences between the different RCM runs are so important that the predicted climate-change impacts for the two emission scenarios A2 and B2 are overlapping. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Agricultural land use and Skylark Alauda arvensis: a case study linking a habitat association model to spatially explicit change scenariosIBIS, Issue 1 2010NIGEL D. BOATMAN The development of forward scenarios is a useful method of envisaging the environmental implications of potential changes in land use, as a tool for policy development. In this paper, a spatially explicit case study is used to provide insight into the environmental impacts of Common Agricultural Policy reform on Skylark Alauda arvensis, a species which is widespread on arable farmland, breeds in crops and has declined in recent decades. A generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate Skylark breeding population densities in different crops, using survey data collected from farms in the east of England, supplemented by the literature. Model outputs were then used to predict Skylark densities in an East Anglian Joint Character Area dominated by arable cropping. Predicted densities were mapped at field level using GIS, based on actual cropping derived from Integrated Administration and Control System data collected for the administration of subsidy payments. Three future scenarios were then created, based on expert opinion of potential changes in cropping over the next 5 years, and potential changes in Skylark density mapped on the basis of the predicted changes in cropping patterns. Overall, Skylark densities were predicted to decrease on average by 11,14% under ,market-led' (increasing wheat and oilseed rape, reduced set-aside) and ,energy crop' (5% area under short rotation coppice) scenarios, but remained virtually unchanged under an ,environment-led' (diverse cropping) scenario. The ,market-led' scenario is closest to short-term agricultural trajectories, but wider cultivation of biomass energy crops as modelled under the ,energy crop' scenario could occur in the medium term if energy policies are favourable. Appropriate mitigation strategies therefore need to be implemented if a continued decline in the Skylark population on lowland arable farmland is to be averted. The results provide a readily accessible visualization of the potential impacts of land-use change for policy-makers; similar techniques could be applied to visualize effects of changes arising through other drivers, including climate change. [source] The story of socio-technical design: reflections on its successes, failures and potentialINFORMATION SYSTEMS JOURNAL, Issue 4 2006Enid Mumford Abstract., This paper traces the history of socio-technical design, emphasizing the set of values it embraces, the people espousing its theory and the organizations that practise it. Its role in the implementation of computer systems and its impact in a number of different countries are stressed. It also shows its relationship with action research, as a humanistic set of principles aimed at increasing human knowledge while improving practice in work situations. Its evolution in the 1960s and 1970s evidencing improved working practices and joint agreements between workers and management are contrasted with the much harsher economic climate of the 1980s and 1990s when such principled practices, with one or two notable exceptions, gave way to lean production, downsizing and cost cutting in a global economy, partly reflecting the impact of information and communications technology. Different future scenarios are discussed where socio-technical principles might return in a different guise to humanize the potential impact of technology in a world of work where consistent organizational and economic change are the norm. [source] Statistical downscaling of extremes of daily precipitation and temperature and construction of their future scenariosINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2008Yeshewatesfa Hundecha Abstract Two statistical downscaling methods have been tested in terms of their ability to construct indices of extremes of daily precipitation and temperatures from large-scale atmospheric variables with the aim of developing a tool for the construction of future scenarios of the extremes. One of the methods implements an approach for constructing seasonal indices of extremes of precipitation and temperature from seasonal measures of large-scale variables, while the other method implements a stochastic model for generating daily series of precipitation and temperature whose parameters are conditioned on large-scale circulation patterns. While both models generally tend to perform fairly well in reproducing indices of precipitation in winter, their performance for the summer season is not attractive. For indices of temperature, the performance of both models is better than the corresponding performance for indices of precipitation and the seasonal variation in performance is less prominent. The models were applied to construct scenarios of the extremes for the end of the 21st century using predictor sets simulated by the Hadley Centre GCM (HadAM3P) forced by two of the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios. Both models project an increase in both the mean daily minimum and mean daily maximum temperatures for future climate change scenarios in all seasons. The summer increase is accompanied by an increase in the inter-annual variability of the temperatures. On the other hand, they show consistency in the direction of the projected changes in indices of precipitation only in winter, where they projected an increase in both the magnitude and frequency of extremes as well as the mean precipitation. The disparity in the changes simulated by the two models revealed the existence of considerable inter-model uncertainty in predicting changes for future climate. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Spatial viability analysis of Amur tiger Panthera tigris altaica in the Russian Far East: the role of protected areas and landscape matrix in population persistenceJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2006CARLOS CARROLL Summary 1The Amur or Siberian tiger Panthera tigris altaica forms a relatively small and disjunct population of less than 600 individuals in the Russian Far East. Because tigers in this region require large territories to acquire sufficient prey, current strictly protected areas, comprising 3·4% (10 300 km2) of the region, are unlikely to prevent extirpation of the subspecies in the face of expanding forestry and external demand for tiger parts. 2We used resource selection function models and spatially explicit population models to analyse the distribution and predict the demographic structure of the population to identify policy options that may enhance population viability. 3A resource selection function model developed from track distribution data predicted that tigers were most likely to occur in lower altitude valley bottoms with Korean pine forest and low human impacts. 4The results from the spatially explicit population model suggested that current tiger distribution is highly dependent on de facto refugia with low human impacts but without statutory protection, and that small increases in mortality in these areas will result in range fragmentation. Although an expanded reserve network only marginally increases tiger viability under current conditions, it dramatically enhances distribution under potential future scenarios, preventing regional extirpation despite a more hostile landscape matrix. 5The portion of tiger range most resistant to extirpation connects a large coastal reserve in the central portion of the region with largely unprotected watersheds to the north. A southern block of habitat is also important but more severely threatened with anthropogenic disturbances. The results suggest that preserving source habitat in these two zones and ensuring linkages are retained between blocks of habitat in the north and south will be critical to the survival of the tiger population. 6Synthesis and applications. Conservation priorities identified in this analysis differ from those suggested by a conservation paradigm focusing only on sustaining and connecting existing protected areas that has been applied to tiger conservation in more developed landscapes with higher prey densities. An alternative paradigm that assesses population viability in a whole-landscape context and develops priorities for both protected area expansion and increasing survival rates in the landscape matrix may be more appropriate in areas where tigers and other large carnivores coexist with low-density human populations. Although landscape connectivity merits increased emphasis in conservation planning, identification of landscape linkages should be tied to broad-scale recommendations resulting from spatial viability analyses in order to prevent misdirection of resources towards protecting corridors that add little to population persistence. [source] Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practiceJOURNAL OF MULTI CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS, Issue 1-3 2006Gilberto Montibeller Abstract The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright, suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma: the contribution of aerobiologyALLERGY, Issue 9 2010L. Cecchi To cite this article: Cecchi L, D'Amato G, Ayres JG, Galan C, Forastiere F, Forsberg B, Gerritsen J, Nunes C, Behrendt H, Akdis C, Dahl R, Annesi-Maesano I. Projections of the effects of climate change on allergic asthma: the contribution of aerobiology. Allergy 2010; 65: 1073,1081. Abstract Climate change is unequivocal and represents a possible threat for patients affected by allergic conditions. It has already had an impact on living organisms, including plants and fungi with current scenarios projecting further effects by the end of the century. Over the last three decades, studies have shown changes in production, dispersion and allergen content of pollen and spores, which may be region- and species-specific. In addition, these changes may have been influenced by urban air pollutants interacting directly with pollen. Data suggest an increasing effect of aeroallergens on allergic patients over this period, which may also imply a greater likelihood of the development of an allergic respiratory disease in sensitized subjects and exacerbation of symptomatic patients. There are a number of limitations that make predictions uncertain, and further and specifically designed studies are needed to clarify current effects and future scenarios. We recommend: More stress on pollen/spore exposure in the diagnosis and treatment guidelines of respiratory and allergic diseases; collection of aerobiological data in a structured way at the European level; creation, promotion and support of multidisciplinary research teams in this area; lobbying the European Union and other funders to finance this research. [source] The ,-reliable mean-excess regret model for stochastic facility location modelingNAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS: AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 7 2006Gang Chen Abstract In this paper, we study a strategic facility location problem under uncertainty. The uncertainty associated with future events is modeled by defining alternative future scenarios with probabilities. We present a new model called the ,-reliable mean-excess model that minimizes the expected regret with respect to an endogenously selected subset of worst-case scenarios whose collective probability of occurrence is no more than 1 , ,. Our mean-excess risk measure is coherent and computationally efficient. Computational experiments also show that the ,-reliable mean-excess criterion matches the ,-reliable minimax criterion closely. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2006 [source] A Motivational Model of Authoritarianism: Integrating Personal and Situational DeterminantsPOLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Philipp Jugert We describe and test a collective security model of authoritarianism. This model sees Right Wing Authoritarianism (RWA) as directly caused by collective security motivation (CSM), which is in turn influenced jointly by personality (with its effects mediated through group identification and dangerous world beliefs) and social threat (with its effects mediated through dangerous world beliefs). Two studies tested this model using student samples,one was correlational (N = 218), while the other included an experimental manipulation of threat using future scenarios (N = 136). Structural equation analyses partially supported the model suggesting that CSM fully mediated the effects of threat and group identification on RWA, but only partially mediated the effect of personality, which also had important direct effects. [source] Lifetime Net Average Tax Rates in Australia Since Federation,A Generational Accounting StudyTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 233 2000JOHN ABLETT This paper presents estimates of average net payments to government, as a per cent of average lifetime labour earnings, for generations born in Australia since Federation (1901), based on historical data combined with several reasonable future scenarios covering fiscal policy, growth and demographic change. The results shed light on whether certain generations have been treated more favorably by the public sector than others this century. The main conclusion is that the average lifetime net tax rate will, under reasonable,assumptions, be of the order of 37,39 per cent for all currently living generations born since the mid-1930s. [source] The galectin family and digestive disease,THE JOURNAL OF PATHOLOGY, Issue 1 2008P Demetter Abstract The soluble-type lectins or galectins constitute a family of proteins defined by shared consensus amino acid sequence and affinity for beta-galactose-containing oligosaccharides. These molecules are widely distributed in the animal kingdom; to date, 15 mammalian galectins have been described but more are likely to be discovered. These proteins are involved in many biological processes including cell,cell and cell,matrix adhesion, growth regulation, signaling, and cytokine secretion. Over the last decade, a vast amount of reports has shown the importance of several galectins in the development and progression of malignancies in the digestive tract, mainly colorectal cancers. More recent data indicate that some of these molecules are also involved in inflammatory bowel diseases. This review focuses on the current knowledge of galectin expression and putative functions in the oesophagus, stomach, small intestine, and colon. It also highlights that the rapid accumulation of research data promises future scenarios in which individual members of the galectin family and/or their ligands will be used as diagnostic and therapeutic modalities for neoplastic as well as inflammatory disorders. However, the concretization of these potential modalities requires substantial improvements in terms of standardization of galectin expression evaluation together with prospective validation of the present data. Copyright © 2008 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends, forecasts, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue, QuébecAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 3 2009C. Ronnie Drever Abstract Questions: What climate variables best explain fire occurrence and area burned in the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest of Canada? How will climate change influence these climate variables and thereby affect the occurrence of fire and area burned in a deciduous forest landscape in Témiscamingue, Québec, Canada? Location: West central Québec and the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We first used an information-theoretic framework to evaluate the relative role of different weather variables in explaining occurrence and area burned of large fires (>200 ha, 1959-1999) across the Great Lakes-St Lawrence forest region. Second, we examined how these weather variables varied historically in Témiscamingue and, third, how they may change between the present and 2100 according to different scenarios of climate change based on two Global Circulation Models. Results: Mean monthly temperature maxima during the fire season (Apr-Oct) and weighted sequences of dry spells best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Between 1910 and 2004, mean monthly temperature maxima in Témiscamingue showed no apparent temporal trend, while dry spell sequences decreased in frequency and length. All future scenarios show an increase in mean monthly temperature maxima, and one model scenario forecasts an increase in dry spell sequences, resulting in a slight increase in forecasted annual area burned. Conclusion: Despite the forecasted increase in fire activity, effects of climate change on fire will not likely affect forest structure and composition as much as natural succession or harvesting and other disturbances, principally because of the large relative difference in area affected by these processes. [source] A conceptual framework for siting biorefineries in the Canadian PrairiesBIOFUELS, BIOPRODUCTS AND BIOREFINING, Issue 4 2010Jason Luk Abstract Ethanol is increasingly used as a means to reduce gasoline consumption. As a result, it has also attracted analysis of its economic, social, and environmental merit. In order for the ethanol production industry to continue to expand, these issues must be confronted in future development. Although technological development is often relied upon, carefully considered ethanol refinery siting also mitigates some of these concerns. Five alternative siting locations were selected in the western Canadian Prairies. These were evaluated using 12 criteria which represent regional resources, economic conditions, government support, or social indicators. The criteria were weighted to represent the perspectives of two stakeholders. The Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment and Evaluations (PROMETHEE) method was applied to this data, ranking the alternative sites. Several future scenarios were created to analyze the sensitivity of the results to both statistical data and subjective inputs. The rankings proved to be robust, and varied little in the different scenarios. Southern Alberta had an advantage with a high ethanol byproduct demand, education level, and ethanol demand. Southern Manitoba benefitted from the lowest labor and miscellaneous costs, due to higher unemployment. Saskatchewan suffers from low byproduct demand and a decrease in water availability while having a heated economy which increases costs. In addition, Saskatchewan as a whole is currently the leader in ethanol production, resulting in less net demand, reduced access to government incentives, and more local competition. Southern Alberta and Southern Manitoba are the optimal regions for future ethanol biorefinery, where as the Saskatchewan locations are the least attractive. © 2010 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [source] Verbund-Simulation , Strategic Planning and Optimization of Integrated Production NetworksCHEMICAL ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY (CET), Issue 4 2010T. Viere Abstract Strategic analysis and optimization of highly integrated production networks is an essential requirement for cost-effective and resource-efficient production. This paper presents a comprehensive software-based concept for modeling, simulation, optimization, and visualization of an integrated silicone production network of Wacker Chemie AG. A Verbund-Model was implemented in a step-by-step approach, starting with primary material streams in one business unit up to the modeling of all energy, waste, and cost streams in several business units. The system's flexibility enables different levels of detail for modeling processes and parts of the network: from simple input-output relations to complex, nonlinear equations and specifications. The proactive implementation of technical measures and projects based on the assessment of future scenarios is an important outcome of the Verbund-simulation. [source] What is Changing in Academic Research?EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF EDUCATION, Issue 2 2006Futures Scenarios, Trends What is changing in academic research? What has changed over the past decades and what might change in the coming ones? Could the research mission of universities be carried out in slightly or radically different ways in the medium term? This article aims to cast light on the trends and driving forces that can be observed in academic research over the past two decades in the OECD area. It gives an outlook of the main current characteristics of academic research at a macro level in terms of funding and activities in comparison with research performed by other sectors. It also highlights future challenges and sketches a few possible futures scenarios in a 20-year time frame. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||