Future Outcomes (future + outcome)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

The relationship between education and health behavior: some empirical evidence

Alexander J. Cowell
Abstract Although researchers agree that more educated people typically engage in healthier behaviors, they have not uncovered the reason why. This paper considers several explanations, including future opportunity costs. Future opportunity costs represent any utility-improving future outcome that is affected by currently engaging in health-related behavior. This paper also examines whether there are degree effects in the health behaviors of binge drinking and smoking. Results suggest that future opportunity costs may affect smoking, although other interpretations cannot be ruled out. The results also find degree effects with regard to binge drinking. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Measuring Physical and Social Environments in Nursing Homes for People with Middle- to Late-Stage Dementia

MSc(A), Susan Slaughter RN
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate measures of dementia care environments by comparing a special care facility (SCF) with traditional institutional facilities (TIFs). DESIGN: A cross-sectional comparative study of nursing home environments conducted as part of a longitudinal study on quality of life for residents with dementia. SETTING: Twenty-four traditional nursing homes and one special care facility. PARTICIPANTS: One SCF with six distinct environments, 24 TIFs with 45 distinct environments, and 88 family members. MEASUREMENTS: Therapeutic Environment Screening Scale,2+ (TESS-2+); Special Care Unit Environmental Quality Scale (SCUEQS), a subset of the TESS-2+ items; Composite Above Average Quality Score (CAAQS), a composite score of all items on the TESS-2+; and Models of Care Instrument (MOCI). RESULTS: The SCUEQS did not detect a significant difference between the SCF and the TIFs (30.0 vs 27.2, P=.28). The CAAQS detected a significant difference between the SCF and the TIFs, whereby the SCF environments were rated as having above-average quality in 71.4% of the domains, compared with 57.3% for the TIF environments (95% confidence interval (CI) for difference=2.6,25.6%, P=.02). Using the MOCI, SCF families were 1.8 times as likely to rate the SCF as a home or resort versus a hospital as TIF families rating TIFs (95% CI for odds ratio=1.5,2.1, P<.001). CONCLUSION: The TESS-2+ CAAQS differentiated between physical environments better than the more established SCUQES. The MOCI distinguished between environments using a more holistic approach to measurement. The availability of environmental measures that are able to discriminate between specialized and traditional long-term care settings will facilitate future outcome-based research. [source]

The discounting of ambiguous information in economic decision making

Eric van Dijk
Abstract In three experimental studies we investigated how decision makers respond to ambiguous information about costs and benefits. In Experiment 1, we studied the effect of ambiguity about prior costs. Experiments 2 and 3 focused on the effect of ambiguity about future outcomes. The collective results of the three studies suggest that decision makers discount ambiguous information. The findings are related to insights on the disjunction effect, the sunk cost effect, transaction decoupling, and ambiguity aversion. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Refining the measurement of exposure to violence (ETV) in urban youth

Robert T. Brennan
Correlational analysis, classical test theory, confirmatory factor analysis, and multilevel Rasch modeling were used to refine a measure of adolescents' exposure to violence (ETV). Interpersonal violence could be distinguished from other potentially traumatic events; it was also possible to distinguish three routes of exposure (victimization, witnessing, and learning of). Correlations confirmed that ETV subscales are related to measures of aggression, delinquency, and depression/anxiety. Reliability was improved by combining ETV subscales and/or caregiver and youth reports. Valid and reliable measures of ETV are critical to future research in associating violence exposure with common mental health and behavioral outcomes and disorders, and tracking how early violence exposure may affect future outcomes for adolescents. 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comm Psychol 35: 603,618, 2007. [source]

Alfred Marshall and the Concept of Class

Patrik Aspers
The purpose of this article is to analyze Alfred Marshall's concept of class. Marshall's concept of class is not well-studied. His idea of class is different from what Weber and Marx have proposed. In contrast to many other economists, he has a discussion of class that is developed. It is shown that Marshall sees classes as made up of people whose work offers similar chances of developing their higher faculties. An integrated idea is that different class positions are associated with different discount rates of future outcomes. Marshall's class theory combines physical and mental components. [source]

Potential utility of actuarial methods for identifying specific learning disabilities

Nicholas Benson
This article describes how actuarial methods can supplant discrepancy models and augment problem solving and Response to Intervention (RTI) efforts by guiding the process of identifying specific learning disabilities (SLD). Actuarial methods use routinized selection and execution of formulas derived from empirically established relationships to make predictions that fall within a plausible range of possible future outcomes. In the case of SLD identification, the extent to which predictions are reasonable can be evaluated by their ability to categorize large segments of the population into subgroups that vary considerably along a spectrum of risk for academic failure. Although empirical comparisons of actuarial methods to clinical judgment reveal that actuarial methods consistently outperform clinical judgment, multidisciplinary teams charged with identifying SLD currently rely on clinical judgment. Actuarial methods provide educators with an empirically verifiable indicator of student need for special education and related services that could be used to estimate the relative effects of exclusionary criteria. This indicator would provide a defensible endpoint in the process of identifying SLD as well as a means of informing and improving the SLD identification process. 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source]

Perspectives on Australian Retirement Incomes

Anthony King
With important developments over the past two decades in Australian retirement income policy, projected future outcomes,for the public purse, for the national economy and for the future retired,have received considerable attention. This focus on the future should not, however, cause us to lose sight of the present. While the major changes in retirement income policy outcomes will not occur for some decades, the picture for current and recent cohorts of retired people is not static. This article begins with an account of the important policy developments since the 1980s in the Australian retirement income arena,the Australian retirement income system still differs radically from that in most other countries, in relying heavily on a means-tested income maintenance system, rather than on social insurance. The outcomes for current and recent cohorts of retired people are then examined from two perspectives. The first perspective is an examination of the incomes of the aged in the mid 1990s and of trends over the 1980s and 1990s,including consideration of changes in the level, composition and distribution of aged incomes. The second perspective is an international comparison of the incomes of the aged. [source]

Regularized Estimation for the Accelerated Failure Time Model

BIOMETRICS, Issue 2 2009
T. Cai
Summary In the presence of high-dimensional predictors, it is challenging to develop reliable regression models that can be used to accurately predict future outcomes. Further complications arise when the outcome of interest is an event time, which is often not fully observed due to censoring. In this article, we develop robust prediction models for event time outcomes by regularizing the Gehan's estimator for the accelerated failure time (AFT) model (Tsiatis, 1996, Annals of Statistics18, 305,328) with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty. Unlike existing methods based on the inverse probability weighting and the Buckley and James estimator (Buckley and James, 1979, Biometrika66, 429,436), the proposed approach does not require additional assumptions about the censoring and always yields a solution that is convergent. Furthermore, the proposed estimator leads to a stable regression model for prediction even if the AFT model fails to hold. To facilitate the adaptive selection of the tuning parameter, we detail an efficient numerical algorithm for obtaining the entire regularization path. The proposed procedures are applied to a breast cancer dataset to derive a reliable regression model for predicting patient survival based on a set of clinical prognostic factors and gene signatures. Finite sample performances of the procedures are evaluated through a simulation study. [source]

Quantifying the Predictive Performance of Prognostic Models for Censored Survival Data with Time-Dependent Covariates

BIOMETRICS, Issue 2 2008
R. Schoop
Summary Prognostic models in survival analysis typically aim to describe the association between patient covariates and future outcomes. More recently, efforts have been made to include covariate information that is updated over time. However, there exists as yet no standard approach to assess the predictive accuracy of such updated predictions. In this article, proposals from the literature are discussed and a conditional loss function approach is suggested, illustrated by a publicly available data set. [source]

Accessibility of causal explanations for future positive and negative events in adolescents with anxiety and depression

Lisa J. Kagan
Anxious and depressed adults' pessimism about future events has been shown to be underpinned by their ability to think of reasons why future events would or would not happen (see, e.g., Byrne and MacLeod, 1997). This study sought to extend this finding to adolescents by investigating the accessibility of explanations given for future events in adolescents with elevated anxiety and depression scores. A school sample of 11,17 year olds (N = 123) participated. Participants completed self-report measures of anxiety, depression and positive and negative affect. In addition they were given a set of potential future positive and negative events and asked to provide reasons as to why the events would (pro reasons) or would not (con reasons) happen. Anxious participants, relative to controls, generated significantly more pro relative to con reasons for negative events happening and showed a non-significant trend towards the opposite pattern for positive events. Depressed participants showed clear differences from controls in their pattern of accessible explanations for both negative events and positive events. Correlational analysis showed that positive and negative affect had differential relationships to positive and negative cognitions concerning future outcomes. The results suggest that the processes that underlie pessimism in depressed and anxious adults also operate in relatively depressed and anxious adolescents.,Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]