Future Impact (future + impact)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

Human papillomavirus type distribution in invasive cervical cancer and high-grade cervical lesions: A meta-analysis update

Jennifer S. Smith
Abstract Data on human papillomavirus (HPV) type distribution in invasive and pre-invasive cervical cancer is essential to predict the future impact of HPV16/18 vaccines and HPV-based screening tests. A meta-analyses of HPV type distribution in invasive cervical cancer (ICC) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) identified a total of 14,595 and 7,094 cases, respectively. In ICC, HPV16 was the most common, and HPV18 the second most common, type in all continents. Combined HPV16/18 prevalence among ICC cases was slightly higher in Europe, North America and Australia (74,77%) than in Africa, Asia and South/Central America (65,70%). The next most common HPV types were the same in each continent, namely HPV31, 33, 35, 45, 52 and 58, although their relative importance differed somewhat by region. HPV18 was significantly more prevalent in adeno/adenosquamous carcinoma than in squamous cell carcinoma, with the reverse being true for HPV16, 31, 33, 52 and 58. Among HSIL cases, HPV16/18 prevalence was 52%. However, HPV 16, 18 and 45 were significantly under-represented, and other high-risk HPV types significantly over-represented in HSIL compared to ICC, suggesting differences in type-specific risks for progression. Data on HPV-typed ICC and HSIL cases were particularly scarce from large regions of Africa and Central Asia. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source]

Prenatal diagnosis of genodermatoses: current scope and future capabilities

Minnelly Luu MD
The genodermatoses encompass a range of inheritable skin diseases that may be associated with significant mortality and long-term morbidity. In the past, options for prenatal diagnosis of these diseases were limited to fetal skin biopsy. As a result of recent leaps made in genetics and molecular biology, DNA-based prenatal diagnosis is now available for an increasing number of genodermatoses, and newer non-invasive methods are being developed that have the potential for tremendous future impact in dermatology. Dermatologists caring for patients with genodermatoses should be aware of the options for screening and prenatal testing and partake in a multi-disciplinary approach to patient care. [source]

Asking the Right Questions: Utilizing a Judicial Checklist to Track the Educational Success of Youth in Foster Care

ABSTRACT Asking about the educational objectives for children in foster care has not been a priority in most juvenile and family courts. Research has shown that compared to the general school population, children in foster care have lower grade point averages, change schools more frequently, earn fewer credits toward graduation, and are more likely to be placed in special education programs. In response, Casey Family Programs, in collaboration with the National Council of Juvenile and Family Court Judges' Permanency Planning for Children Department, developed a Judicial Checklist with key educational questions to be asked from the bench. The Checklist has become a useful tool for juvenile and family court judges when assessing the effectiveness of current educational placements of the children who come before their courts, tracking their performance, and in making a positive future impact on their educational outcomes. [source]

Land under pressure: soil conservation concerns and opportunities for Ethiopia

B. G. J. S. Sonneveld
Abstract This paper evaluates the future impact of soil degradation on national food security and land occupation in Ethiopia. It applies a spatial optimization model that maximizes national agricultural revenues under alternative scenarios of soil conservation, land accessibility and technology. The constraints in the model determine whether people remain on their original site, migrate within their ethnically defined areas or are allowed a transregional migration. Key to this model is the combination of a water erosion model with a spatial yield function that gives an estimate of the agricultural yield in its geographical dependence of natural resources and population distribution. A comparison of simulated land productivity values with historical patterns shows that results are interpretable and yield more accurate outcomes than postulating straightforward reductions in yield or land area for each geographic entity. The results of the optimization model show that in absence of soil erosion control, the future agricultural production stagnates and results in distressing food shortages, while rural incomes drop dramatically below the poverty line. Soil conservation and migration support a slow growth, but do not suffice to meet the expected food demand. In a transregional migration scenario, the highly degraded areas are exchanged for less affected sites, whereas cultivation on already substantially degraded soils largely continues when resettlement is confined to the original ethnic,administrative entity. A shift to modern technology offers better prospects and moderates the migration, but soil conservation remains indispensable, especially in the long term. Finally, an accelerated growth of non-agricultural sectors further alleviates poverty in the countryside, contributing to higher income levels of the total population and, simultaneously, relieving the pressure on the land through rural,urban migration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Joseph M. Juran, a perspective on past contributions and future impact

A. Blanton Godfrey
Abstract This paper combines presentations by the authors in a special session dedicated to the work of Joseph M. Juran at the sixth annual conference of the European Network for Business and Industrial Statistics in Wroclaw, Poland. The paper offers an historical perspective of the contributions of J. M. Juran to management science emphasizing aspects of cause and effect relationships and Integrated Models. Specifically, the paper presents the Juran concepts of Management Breakthrough, the Pareto Principle, the Juran Trilogy® and Six Sigma. The impact of these contributions, put in an historical perspective of key thinkers who investigated cause and effect relationships, is then discussed. The impact of these contributions to modern Integrated Models is then assessed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Construction of a permeable reactive barrier in a residential neighborhood

REMEDIATION, Issue 4 2002
Peter Richards
In June 2001, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) installed a permeable reactive barrier (PRB) within a roadway in Needham, Massachusetts, to treat a plume of chlorinated solvents migrating toward two public water-supply wells located in the adjacent town of Wellesley, Massachusetts. The solvents originated from an electronics manufacturer located approximately 2,300 feet upgradient of the roadway and 5,200 feet upgradient of the public supply wells. Chlorinated solvents, primarily trichloroethene (TCE), had migrated past the roadway to within 300 feet of the public supply wells. Two contaminant transport models prepared by the DEP's design contractor and the EPA indicated that the plume would reach the well field if no response actions were taken. To mitigate the future impact to the municipal well field, the DEP decided to install a PRB composed of zero-valent granular iron across the path of the plume along Central Avenue in Needham. Though several dozen PRBs have been installed at sites worldwide and the technology is no longer considered innovative, the application of the technology in a roadway that receives 17,000 vehicles per day within a residential neighborhood is unique and presented difficulties not typically associated with PRB installations. The Needham PRB was also one of the first zero-valent iron PRBs installed using the slurry trench method to treat chlorinated compounds. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source]

Lung Transplantation in the United States, 1998,2007

K. R. McCurry
This article highlights trends and changes in lung and heart-lung transplantation in the United States from 1998 to 2007. The most significant change over the last decade was implementation of the Lung Allocation Score (LAS) allocation system in May 2005. Subsequently, the number of active wait-listed lung candidates declined 54% from pre-LAS (2004) levels to the end of 2007; there was also a reduction in median waiting time, from 792 days in 2004 to 141 days in 2007. The number of lung transplants performed yearly increased through the decade to a peak of 1 465 in 2007; the greatest single year increase occurred in 2005. Despite candidates with increasingly higher LAS scores being transplanted in the LAS era, recipient death rates have remained relatively stable since 2003 and better than in previous years. Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis became the most common diagnosis group to receive a lung transplant in 2007 while emphysema was the most common diagnosis in previous years. The number of retransplants and transplants in those aged ,65 performed yearly have increased significantly since 1998, up 295% and 643%, respectively. A decreasing percentage of lung transplant recipients are children (3.5% in 2007, n = 51). With LAS refinement ongoing, monitoring of future impact is warranted. [source]

Social Capital, Collective Action, and Adaptation to Climate Change

W. Neil Adger
Abstract: Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. [source]

Climate change and bet-hedging: interactions between increased soil temperatures and seed bank persistence

Abstract In order to predict the long-term consequences of climate change, it is necessary to link future environmental changes to mechanisms that control plant population processes. This information can then be incorporated into strategies to more accurately model climate change impacts on species or to estimate future extinction risks. We examined the impact of increased temperatures on the longevity and dynamics of the persistent soil seed banks of eight ephemeral species from arid Australia. We found that the predicted global temperature increases under climate change will be reflected in increased soil temperatures, and that seeds in the soil seed bank will be exposed to long durations of high temperatures over the summer months. Three of the eight species studied had significantly greater levels of germination after exposure to predicted increased soil temperatures. Another species displayed a dramatic decrease in seed viability after such exposure. The capacity of such species to use the seed bank to bet hedge against rainfall events that cause germination but are insufficient to allow plant maturation, is compromised by increased germinability and subsequent loss or reduction of seed bank persistence. These predicted changes in the dynamics of soil seed banks increase the risk of local extinctions of these species, while the composition of the community may be altered by changes in species abundance. Our results show that the risk spreading mechanism provided by persistent seed banks could be compromised by the mechanistic impact of forecast temperature increases in arid habitats, and highlight the need to understand mechanisms that control population dynamics when attempting to address likely future impacts of climate change on biodiversity. [source]

Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter

Abstract Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long-term studies. Here, using counts of waders (Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest-scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ,weighted centroids' of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year-to-year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas. [source]

Analysis of energy technology changes and associated costs

P. D. Lund
Abstract An integrated mathematical model constituting of interlinked submodels on technology costs, progress and market penetration has been developed. The model was applied to a few new energy technologies to investigate the economic boundary conditions for a full market breakthrough and corresponding market impact on a 50 years time scale. The model shows that public subsidies amounting to slightly over 220 billion , in total worldwide would be necessary over the next 30,40 years to bring wind and photovoltaics to a cost breakthrough in the market and to reach a 20 and 5% share of all electricity at t = 50 years, respectively. These up-front learning investments would be partly amortized toward the end of the interval as the new technologies become cost competitive but could be fully paid off earlier if CO2 emission trading schemes emerge even with modest CO2 price levels. The findings are sensitive to changes in the parameter assumptions used. For example, a 2% uncertainty in the main parameters of the model could lead to a spread of tens of per cents in the future energy impact and subsidy needs, or when related to the above subsidy estimate, 155,325 billion ,. This underlines the overall uncertainty in predicting future impacts and resource needs for new energy technologies. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges

Abstract Increasing evidence shows that anthropogenic climate change is affecting biodiversity. Reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions may slow global warming, but past emissions will continue to contribute to further unavoidable warming for more than a century. With obvious signs of difficulties in achieving effective mitigation worldwide in the short term at least, sound scientific predictions of future impacts on biodiversity will be required to guide conservation planning and adaptation. This is especially true in Mediterranean type ecosystems that are projected to be among the most significantly affected by anthropogenic climate change, and show the highest levels of confidence in rainfall projections. Multiple methods are available for projecting the consequences of climate change on the main unit of interest , the species , with each method having strengths and weaknesses. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied for forecasting climate change impacts on species geographic ranges. Aggregation of models for different species allows inferences of impacts on biodiversity, though excluding the effects of species interactions. The modelling approach is based on several further assumptions and projections and should be treated cautiously. In the absence of comparable approaches that address large numbers of species, SDMs remain valuable in estimating the vulnerability of species. In this review we discuss the application of SDMs in predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with special reference to the species-rich South West Australian Floristic Region and South African Cape Floristic Region. We discuss the advantages and challenges in applying SDMs in biodiverse regions with high levels of endemicity, and how a similar biogeographical history in both regions may assist us in understanding their vulnerability to climate change. We suggest how the process of predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity with SDMs can be improved and emphasize the role of field monitoring and experiments in validating the predictions of SDMs. [source]

Detecting Tropical Forests' Responses to Global Climatic and Atmospheric Change: Current Challenges and a Way Forward

BIOTROPICA, Issue 1 2007
Deborah A. ClarkArticle first published online: 21 DEC 200
ABSTRACT Because of tropical forests' disproportionate importance for world biodiversity and for the global carbon cycle, we urgently need to understand any effects on these ecosystems from the ongoing changes in climate and atmosphere. This review, intended to complement existing data reviews on this topic, focuses on three major classes of challenges that we currently face when trying to detect and interpret directional changes in tropical forests. One is the very limited existing information on the historical context of study sites. Lasting effects from past climate, natural disturbances, and/or human activities could be significantly affecting current-day processes in tropical forests and need to be investigated for all active field sites. Second, while progress has been made in recent years on standardizing and refining research approaches, a number of methods- and data-limitations continue to affect efforts both to detect within-forest changes and to relate them to ongoing environmental change. Important outstanding needs are improved sampling designs, longer time-series of observations, filling key data gaps, and data access. Finally, forest responses to ongoing environmental change are complex. The effects of many simultaneously changing environmental factors are integrated by the plants, and their responses can involve significant lags, carryovers, and non-linearities. Specifying effects of individual environmental changes, however, is required for accurate ecosystem-process models and thus for projecting future impacts on these forests. After discussing these several types of challenges and ways to address them, I conclude with a priority agenda for this critical area of research. Abstract in Spanish is available at http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/btp. RESUMEN Debido a la importancia desproporcionada de los bosques tropicales para la biodiversidad mundial y para el ciclo global del carbono, es urgente identificar los impactos sobre estos ecosistemas provocados por los cambios actuales en el clima y en la atmósfera. Este artículo de revisión, escrito con el propósito de complementar otras revisiones recientes, se enfoca en tres principales clases de retos que enfrentamos actualmente en la detección e interpretación de cambios direccionales en los bosques tropicales. Primero es la gran escasez de información histórica acerca de los sitios de estudio. Los procesos actuales en los bosques tropicales pueden reflejar los efectos prolongados del pasado climático, las perturbaciones naturales y/o las actividades humanas, por lo que deben de ser investigados en todos los sitios actuales de estudio. Segundo, a pesar de avances recientes en la estandarización y el refinamiento de los métodos de investigación, nuestra habilidad para detectar cambios en los bosques y ligarlos a los grandes cambios ambientales sigue siendo limitada. Para garantizar avances en el área se requiere mejorar los diseños de muestreo, extender las series de observación en el tiempo a plazos mayores, llenar ciertos vacíos claves en el conocimiento, y facilitar el acceso a los datos existentes. Por último, se requiere de enfoques que tomen en cuenta la complejidad de las respuestas de los bosques a los cambios ambientales. Las plantas integran los efectos de cambios simultáneos en múltiples factores ambientales, y sus respuestas pueden ser no lineales e incluir efectos de retraso y acarreo. No obstante, es importante también especificar los efectos individuales de los diferentes cambios ambientales para afinar los modelos de procesos a nivel del ecosistema, y así poder proyectar los impactos futuros sobre estos bosques. Después de discutir dichos retos y estrategias para enfrentarlos, concluyo con una agenda de prioridades para esta área crítica de investigación. [source]