Forest Distributions (forest + distribution)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


55 Ice age kelp forests: climate-driven changes in kelp forest distribution since the last glacial maximum

JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2003
M. H. Graham
Kelp forest distributions are constrained by the availability of rocky substrate within the depth range tolerable for growth and reproduction, which can vary over relatively short geological timescales (millennia) due to interactions between coastal bathymetry and climate-driven changes in eustatic sea level. Using GIS, a digital bathymetric map, sea level curves, and published kelp depth tolerances, I reconstructed changes in the size and distribution of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in the Southern California Bight since the last glacial maximum. Reconstructions predicted that the total area of available kelp forest habitat for the California Channel Islands during the last glacial maximum (18.5 kyr BP; 628 square km) was greater than at present (382 square km) but less than at 16.5 kyr BP (1130 square km). Available kelp forest habitat along the southern California mainland also increased rapidly from 18.5 to 16.5 kyr BP but continued to increase with sea level rise. Differences in the effects of sea level rise on coastal geomorphology between the islands and mainland further constrained the extent of rocky substrate available to kelps. Given biomass and productivity estimates from present-day kelp forests, these reconstructions suggest more productive and spatially extensive island kelp forests near the last glacial maximum than at present, but the opposite pattern for the mainland. These climate-driven changes in kelp forest distribution and productivity likely had important historical impacts on the ecology and evolution of the present-day kelp ecosystem including kelp forest exploitation by early human inhabitants of southern California. [source]


Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 2 2002
David W. Williams
Abstract 1,One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large-scale disturbances to pine forests in the south-eastern and western United States, respectively. 2,Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them. 3,To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables. 4,Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests. 5,Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study. 6,Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation. 7,Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long-term distributional shifts of their host forests. [source]


55 Ice age kelp forests: climate-driven changes in kelp forest distribution since the last glacial maximum

JOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2003
M. H. Graham
Kelp forest distributions are constrained by the availability of rocky substrate within the depth range tolerable for growth and reproduction, which can vary over relatively short geological timescales (millennia) due to interactions between coastal bathymetry and climate-driven changes in eustatic sea level. Using GIS, a digital bathymetric map, sea level curves, and published kelp depth tolerances, I reconstructed changes in the size and distribution of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests in the Southern California Bight since the last glacial maximum. Reconstructions predicted that the total area of available kelp forest habitat for the California Channel Islands during the last glacial maximum (18.5 kyr BP; 628 square km) was greater than at present (382 square km) but less than at 16.5 kyr BP (1130 square km). Available kelp forest habitat along the southern California mainland also increased rapidly from 18.5 to 16.5 kyr BP but continued to increase with sea level rise. Differences in the effects of sea level rise on coastal geomorphology between the islands and mainland further constrained the extent of rocky substrate available to kelps. Given biomass and productivity estimates from present-day kelp forests, these reconstructions suggest more productive and spatially extensive island kelp forests near the last glacial maximum than at present, but the opposite pattern for the mainland. These climate-driven changes in kelp forest distribution and productivity likely had important historical impacts on the ecology and evolution of the present-day kelp ecosystem including kelp forest exploitation by early human inhabitants of southern California. [source]


Probability distributions, vulnerability and sensitivity in Fagus crenata forests following predicted climate changes in Japan

JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 5 2004
Tetsuya Matsui
Question: How much is the probability distribution of Fagus crenata forests predicted to change under a climate change scenario by the 2090s, and what are the potential impacts on these forests? What are the main factors inducing such changes? Location: The major islands of Japan. Methods: A predictive distribution model was developed with four climatic factors (summer precipitation, PRS; winter precipitation, PRW; minimum temperature of the coldest month, TMC; and warmth index, WI) and five non-climatic factors (topography, surface geology, soil, slope aspect and inclination). A climate change scenario was applied to the model. Results: Areas with high probability (> 0.5) were predicted to decrease by 91%, retreating from the southwest, shrinking in central regions, and expanding northeastwards beyond their current northern limits. A vulnerability index (the reciprocal of the predicted probability) suggests that Kyushu, Shikoku, the Pacific Ocean side of Honshu and southwest Hokkaido will have high numbers of many vulnerable F. crenata forests. The forests with high negative sensitivity indices (the difference between simulated probabilities of occurrence under current and predicted climates) mainly occur in southwest Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan side of northern Honshu. Conclusion: F. crenata forest distributions may retreat from some islands due to a high WI. The predicted northeastward shift in northern Hokkaido is associated with increased TMC and PRS. High vulnerability and negative sensitivity of the forests in southern Hokkaido are due to increased WI. [source]


Sensitivity of tropical forests to climate change in the humid tropics of north Queensland

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2001
David W. Hilbert
Abstract An analysis using an artificial neural network model suggests that the tropical forests of north Queensland are highly sensitive to climate change within the range that is likely to occur in the next 50,100 years. The distribution and extent of environments suitable for 15 structural forest types were estimated, using the model, in 10 climate scenarios that include warming up to 1C and altered precipitation from ,10% to +20%. Large changes in the distribution of forest environments are predicted with even minor climate change. Increased precipitation favours some rainforest types, whereas decreased rainfall increases the area suitable for forests dominated by sclerophyllous genera such as Eucalyptus and Allocasuarina. Rainforest environments respond differentially to increased temperature. The area of lowland mesophyll vine forest environments increases with warming, whereas upland complex notophyll vine forest environments respond either positively or negatively to temperature, depending on precipitation. Highland rainforest environments (simple notophyll and simple microphyll vine fern forests and thickets), the habitat for many of the region's endemic vertebrates, decrease by 50% with only a 1C warming. Estimates of the stress to present forests resulting from spatial shifts of forest environments (assuming no change in the present forest distributions) indicate that several forest types would be highly stressed by a 1C warming and most are sensitive to any change in rainfall. Most forests will experience climates in the near future that are more appropriate to some other structural forest type. Thus, the propensity for ecological change in the region is high and, in the long term, significant shifts in the extent and spatial distribution of forests are likely. A detailed spatial analysis of the sensitivity to climate change indicates that the strongest effects of climate change will be experienced at boundaries between forest classes and in ecotonal communities between rainforest and open woodland. [source]