Forcing Mechanisms (forcing + mechanism)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Oceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of Venezuela

ENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 3 2002
Lelys Guenni
Abstract The Caroní catchment located in the south-east of Venezuela accounts for 70 per cent of the total hydropower energy of the country. On a year to year basis, it has been shown that low frequency large scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena are highly coupled to the hydroclimatology of the region, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) being a major forcing mechanism of climatic and hydrological anomalies. Regional differences in amplitude and timing are due to complex orographic interactions, land surface-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and the evolution of dominant synoptic meteorological conditions. A detailed analysis of the relationship between rainfall and several large scale ocean-atmospheric variables was carried out to determine the potential use of large scale climatic information as predictors of the rainfall anomalies over the region. The problem was tackled in two ways: (a) first a seasonal dynamic rainfall model was fitted to monthly rainfall for different locations. In this case rainfall is assumed as a normal variate w which has been transformed to account for its departure from normality and truncated to account for the positive probability mass of zero values, which corresponds to negative values of the normal variable. The time series of the model parameters and the macroclimatic variables are inspected for their potential relationship with local rainfall via the stochastic model. (b) Second, dynamic linear regression models between the macroclimatic variables as predictors and the rainfall anomalies as predictant were fitted to evaluate and quantify the significance of these dependencies. Consistent patterns are observed with the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperature anomalies, in which a significant negative relationship has been present since 1976, indicating an overall decrease (increase) in rainfall when the Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic are warmer (colder) than normal. In all cases the results suggest that the relationships between rainfall anomalies and the macroclimatic variables are not constant with time. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Trend and variability of China precipitation in spring and summer: linkage to sea-surface temperatures

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2004
Fanglin Yang
Abstract Observational records in the past 50 years show an upward trend of boreal-summer precipitation over central eastern China and a downward trend over northern China. During boreal spring, the trend is upward over southeastern China and downward over central eastern China. This study explores the forcing mechanism of these trends in association with the global sea-surface temperature (SST) variations on the interannual and interdecadal time scales. Results based on singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses show that the interannual variability of China precipitation in boreal spring and summer can be well defined by two centres of action for each season, which are covarying with two interannual modes of SSTs. The first SVD modes of precipitation in spring and summer, which are centred in southeastern China and northern China respectively, are linked to an El Niño,southern oscillation (ENSO)-like mode of SSTs. The second SVD modes of precipitation in both seasons are confined to central eastern China, and are primarily linked to SST variations over the warm pool and the Indian Ocean. Features of the anomalous 850 hPa winds and 700 hPa geopotential height corresponding to these modes support a physical mechanism that explains the causal links between the modal variations of precipitation and SSTs. On the decadal and longer time scale, similar causal links are found between the same modes of precipitation and SSTs, except for the case of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For this case, while the interannual mode of precipitation is positively correlated with the interannual variations of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean, the interdecadal mode is negatively correlated with a different SST mode, i.e. the North Pacific mode. The latter is responsible for the observed downward trend of springtime precipitation over central eastern China. For all other cases, both the interannual and interdecadal variations of precipitation can be explained by the same mode of SSTs. The upward trend of springtime precipitation over southeastern China and downward trend of summertime precipitation over northern China are attributable to the warming trend of the ENSO-like mode. The recent frequent summertime floods over central eastern China are linked to the warming trend of SSTs over the warm pool and Indian Ocean. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 602 2004
G. M. Miles
Abstract A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter,the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere,the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


Remote weather associated with South Pacific subtropical sea-level high properties

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2004
Richard Grotjahn
Abstract The subtropical highs in sea-level pressure (SLP) are little studied and incompletely understood. In recent years, three groups of theories, i.e. tropical divergent circulations, subtropical Rossby wavetrains, and midlatitude frontal cyclone interactions, have been proposed for remote maintenance of these highs. The latter is presented here as a remote forcing of these highs for the first time in the reviewed literature. The focus of the study is upon illuminating associations between these mechanisms and the South Pacific subtropical high in SLP (SP high). Precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, velocity potential, and divergent winds are used as proxy markers for the remote forcing mechanisms. The tools used include composites, one-point correlations, autocorrelations, cross-correlations, and cross-spectra. Observational evidence, in monthly and daily data, is examined that appears to support each mechanism. Associations seen in monthly data are better understood in daily data at various lags. Convection over Amazonia, coordinated with suppressed convection in the western tropical Pacific, leads to enhanced SLP on the tropical side of the high. Midlatitude weather systems are the strongest influence upon the maximum SLP and the SLP on the higher latitude side of the high. The western side is associated with both middle-and lower-latitude phenomena, such as the South Pacific convergence zone. Various properties of the high have a strong period around 45 days. Associations to the Madden,Julian oscillation and El Niño,southern oscillation are explored and are strong only for the tropical side of the SP high. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


A synoptic-scale climate analysis of anomalous snow water equivalent over the Northern Great Plains of the USA

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2003
Andrew Grundstein
Abstract The Northern Great Plains is a region where variations in seasonal snow accumulation can have a dramatic affect on regional hydrology. In the past, one of the problems in studying snow hydrology has been obtaining information of sufficiently high temporal and spatial resolution on the water content of the snowpack. This project used a hybrid climatology of snow water equivalent (SWE) that incorporated both model and observed data. This climatology has a long time series (49 years) and a high spatial resolution (1° × 1°) sufficient for use in a climatic analysis. The long and complete time series of SWE generated in this project allowed for a comprehensive analysis of the meteorological and climate forcing mechanisms that influence the amount of SWE. The five largest (high SWE) and five smallest SWE (low SWE) accumulations on 1 March were examined. High SWE years received greater snowfall and fewer accumulated melting degree days throughout the season. Large SWE accumulations at the end of the season, however, were not always associated with deep snowpacks early in the season. Also, all five high SWE years had above normal snowfall in February. Years with small or no SWE had below-average snowfall but greater than average accumulated melting degree days. A synoptic analysis examined both atmospheric circulation and air mass frequencies to assess impacts on ablation and snowfall. A distinct difference in the frequency of different air mass during high SWE versus low SWE years was evident. High SWE years were characterized by substantially greater intrusions of the coldest and driest air mass type (dry polar). Low SWE years, in contrast, had a greater frequency of more moderate air masses (dry moderate and moist moderate). In years with above average SWE, negative departures in November,December,January,February composite 700 hPa field were evident across the continental USA and indicate a greater frequency of troughing across the study area. Low SWE years were characterized by a ridging pattern that reduced the likelihood of precipitation and may have aided in the intrusion of more moderate air masses. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source]


A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability,

JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 7 2007
Graeme T. Swindles
Abstract A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850,cal.,yr,BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and 14C dating, including a wiggle-match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae-derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy-specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510,cal.,yr,BC, 750,cal.,yr,BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380,cal.,yr,BC, 150,cal.,yr,BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423,373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Relationships between morphological and sedimentological parameters in source-to-sink systems: a basis for predicting semi-quantitative characteristics in subsurface systems

BASIN RESEARCH, Issue 4 2009
Tor O. Sømme
ABSTRACT The study of source-to-sink systems relates long-term variations in sediment flux to morphogenic evolution of erosional,depositional systems. These variations are caused by an intricate combination of autogenic and allogenic forcing mechanisms that operate on multiple time scales , from individual transport events to large-scale filling of basins. In order to achieve a better understanding of how these mechanisms influence morphological characteristics on different scales, 29 submodern source-to-sink systems have been investigated. The study is based on measurements of morphological parameters from catchments, shelves and slopes derived from a ,1 km global digital elevation model dataset, in combination with data on basin floor fans, sediment supply, water discharge and deposition rates derived from published literature. By comparing various morphological and sedimentological parameters within and between individual systems, a number of relationships governing system evolution and behaviour are identified. The results suggest that the amount of low-gradient floodplain area and river channel gradient are good indicators for catchment storage potential. Catchment area and river channel length is also related to shelf area and shelf width, respectively. Similarly to the floodplain area, these parameters are important for long-term storage of sediment on the shelf platform. Additionally, the basin floor fan area is correlative to the long-term deposition rate and the slope length. The slope length thus proves to be a useful parameter linking proximal and distal segments in source-to-sink systems. The relationships observed in this study provide insight into segment scale development of source-to-sink systems, and an understanding of these relationships in modern systems may result in improved knowledge on internal and external development of source-to-sink systems over geological time scales. They also allow for the development of a set of semi-quantitative guidelines that can be used to predict similar relationships in other systems where data from individual system segments are missing or lacking. [source]