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Extreme Scenario (extreme + scenario)
Selected AbstractsPotential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2002Linda J. Beaumont Abstract This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8,1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1,3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future. [source] Industrial energy policy: a case study of demand in KuwaitOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2006M. Nagy Eltony The purpose behind building the industrial energy demand model was to enable assessment of the impact of potential policy options and to forecast future energy demand under various assumptions, including the impact of the possible removal of energy subsidies in accordance with the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement. The results of the model, based on three scenarios, underline several important issues: With nominal energy prices staying the same (the status quo) and with inflation and economic growth continuing to expand (i.e. baseline scenario), it is expected that industrial demand will grow. In this sector, energy consumption is projected to grow at an annual growth rate of about 3.5 per cent throughout the forecast period. In the moderate scenario, however, this drops to 1.9 per cent and when all energy subsidies are removed as in the case of the extreme scenario, the energy consumption is projected to grow by only 1.5 per cent annually throughout the same period. Moreover, with regards to inter-fuel substitution, the model forecast indicates that electricity and natural gas consumption will decline, while the consumption of oil products will increase in all scenarios. The results of the model also indicate that the changing price structure of energy resources should be done in a comprehensive manner. In other words, electricity prices should be adjusted upwards instantly with the adjustment of oil products' prices and natural gas otherwise, a massive inter-fuel substitution will occur within the various consuming industries. [source] Short-lived bromine compounds in the lower stratosphere; impact of climate change on ozoneATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 3 2009Olivier Dessens Abstract We consider how future changes in the circulation of the troposphere might change the delivery of short-lived brominated species to the stratosphere and study the impact of this change on stratospheric ozone. Changes in stratospheric bromine are potentially significant, amounting, under an extreme scenario of all short-lived species having a tropical source, to an increase of perhaps 10% above current levels. This must be set against the slow removal of anthropogenic halogens from the stratosphere. These changes lead to modest, but non-negligible decreases in ozone in the lower stratosphere, reaching about 8% at the tropopause, where changes in ozone have important climate consequences. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Reducing runoff by managing crop location at the catchment level, considering agronomic constraints at farm levelLAND DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 5 2006A. Joannon Abstract Runoff and erosion cause frequent damage through muddy floods in the loess belt of Northern Europe. One possibility for reducing damage is to lower runoff on agricultural land by spatially alternating different crops at the catchment level. But crop location results from decisions taken at the farm level. This study aimed to assess the existing leeway to modify crop location in the farms of a catchment, in order to reduce runoff at the catchment's outlet. The case study was the Bourville catchment (1086,ha), cultivated by 28 farmers and located in Pays de Caux, France. First, crop location rules in the 14 main farms of the catchment were analysed on the basis of surveys carried out with farmers, distinguishing spatial constraints from temporal ones. These rules made it possible to simulate crop location on each farm territory for the 2001,2002 crop year. Each field of the catchment was classified depending on whether one or several crops could be sown, taking into account both field history and farmer decision rules. Then two extreme scenarios of crop location in the Bourville catchment were built. Runoff simulation at the outlet with the STREAM model showed that runoff could be reduced while sticking to current farmer decision rules in terms of crop location. Depending on rainfall event characteristics, runoff reduction varied between 13·5,per,cent and 4·5,per,cent. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||