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External Shocks (external + shock)
Selected AbstractsA Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs.BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2004Fiscal Approaches F3 Abstract This paper develops a model for balance-of-payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis. [source] Dormant ascospores of Talaromyces macrosporus are activated to germinate after treatment with ultra high pressureJOURNAL OF APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 1 2004J. Dijksterhuis Abstract Aims:, Ascospores of Talaromyces macrosporus are constitutively dormant and germinate after a strong external shock, classically a heat treatment. This fungus is used as a model system to study heat resistance leading to food spoilage after pasteurization. This study evaluates the effect of high pressure on the germination behaviour of these spores. Methods and Results:, Ascospore containing bags were subjected to ultra high pressure and spores were plated out on agar surfaces. Untreated suspensions showed invariably very low germination. Increased germination of ascospores occurred after short treatments at very high pressure (between 400 and 800 MPa). Activation is partial compared with heat activation and did not exceed 6·9% (65 times that of untreated suspensions) of the spore population. Maximum activation was attained shortly (10 s,3 min) after the pressure was applied and accompanied by cell wall deformations as judged by scanning electron microscopy. The spores observed in this study were harvested from cultures that were 39,58 days old. The maturity of spores at similar developmental stages was measured by assessing the heat resistance of ascospores. Between 20 and 40 days heat resistance increased 2·4-fold, but only an additional increase of 1·3-fold was observed at later stages (40,67 days). Conclusions:, Our investigations show that high pressure constitutes a second type of shock that can activate heat-resistant ascospores to germinate. Activation is maximal after very short treatments and accompanied with changes in the cell wall structure. High-pressure activation is not the result of immaturity of the ascospores. Significance and Impact of the Study: These observations are relevant for the application of high pressure as a novel pasteurization method. [source] Presidential Power and Congressional Acquiescence in the "War" on Terrorism: A New Constitutional Equilibrium?POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 2 2006John E. Owens U.S. presidents have expanded executive power in times of war and emergency, sometimes aggressively so. This article builds on Burnham's application of punctuated equilibria theory to suggest that the combination of President George W. Bush's presidentialist doctrine, the external shock of the 9/11 atrocities and the president's "war" on terror has consolidated a new, constitutional equilibrium between the president and the Congress. While some members of Congress contest the new order, the Congress collectively has acquiesced in its own marginalization. The article surveys a wide range of executive power assertions and legislative retreats AND argues that power assertions and consolidations generally draw on historical precedent and operate nonincrementally within a punctuated pattern. [source] Comparison of the myoplasmic calcium transient elicited by an action potential in intact fibres of mdx and normal miceTHE JOURNAL OF PHYSIOLOGY, Issue 21 2008Stephen Hollingworth The myoplasmic free [Ca2+] transient elicited by an action potential (,[Ca2+]) was compared in fast-twitch fibres of mdx (dystrophin null) and normal mice. Methods were used that maximized the likelihood that any detected differences apply in vivo. Small bundles of fibres were manually dissected from extensor digitorum longus muscles of 7- to 14-week-old mice. One fibre within a bundle was microinjected with furaptra, a low-affinity rapidly responding fluorescent calcium indicator. A fibre was accepted for study if it gave a stable, all-or-nothing fluorescence response to an external shock. In 18 normal fibres, the peak amplitude and the full-duration at half-maximum (FDHM) of ,[Ca2+] were 18.4 ± 0.5 ,m and 4.9 ± 0.2 ms, respectively (mean ±s.e.m.; 16°C). In 13 mdx fibres, the corresponding values were 14.5 ± 0.6 ,m and 4.7 ± 0.2 ms. The difference in amplitude is statistically highly significant (P= 0.0001; two-tailed t test), whereas the difference in FDHM is not (P= 0.3). A multi-compartment computer model was used to estimate the amplitude and time course of the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) calcium release flux underlying ,[Ca2+]. Estimates were made based on several differing assumptions: (i) that the resting myoplasmic free Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]R) and the total concentration of parvalbumin ([ParvT]) are the same in mdx and normal fibres, (ii) that [Ca2+]R is larger in mdx fibres, (iii) that [ParvT] is smaller in mdx fibres, and (iv) that [Ca2+]R is larger and [ParvT] is smaller in mdx fibres. According to the simulations, the 21% smaller amplitude of ,[Ca2+] in mdx fibres in combination with the unchanged FDHM of ,[Ca2+] is consistent with mdx fibres having a ,25% smaller flux amplitude, a 6,23% larger FDHM of the flux, and a 9,20% smaller total amount of released Ca2+ than normal fibres. The changes in flux are probably due to a change in the gating of the SR Ca2+ -release channels and/or in their single channel flux. The link between these changes and the absence of dystrophin remains to be elucidated. [source] A Passive Magnetically and Hydrodynamically Suspended Rotary Blood PumpARTIFICIAL ORGANS, Issue 3 2009Martin Stoiber Abstract A combined hydrodynamic,magnetic bearing allows the design of rotary blood pumps that are not encumbered with mechanical bearings and magnets requiring sensors or electrical power. However, such pumps have so far needed very small and accurately manufactured gaps between rotor and housing to assure effective hydromagnetic bearing behavior. In order to use this concept in disposable pump heads, a design that allows larger rotor-housing gaps, and thus larger manufacturing tolerances, is needed. A pump with passive magnetic bearings and a gap between rotor and housing in the range of 0.5 mm was designed. Numerical simulations were performed to optimize the rotor geometry at low levels of shear stress. An experimental test stand was used to find a range of speeds and gap settings that resulted in low levels of vibration and useful pressure,flow relationships. Three different rotor geometries were tested using a viscosity-adjusted test fluid. Blood damage tests were conducted within the desirable range of speeds and gap settings. In this study stable pump performance was demonstrated at total gap widths between 0.3 and 0.7 mm at flows of 0,10 L/min, with afterloads up to 230 mm Hg. Best performance was achieved with rotors sliding on a fluid pillow between the rotor and the outer housing at a gap distance of 50 to 250 µm. The inner gap distance, between the rotor and the inner housing, could be as great as 500 µm. Hemolysis tests on the prototype within the chosen operating range showed lower values (NIH = 0.0029 ± 0.0012 g/100 L) than the Biomedicus BP-80 pump (NIH = 0.0033 ± 0.0011 g/100 L). In conclusion, it is possible to build rotary blood pumps with passive hydromagnetic bearings that have large gaps between their rotors and housings. Rotor behavior is sensitive to the position of the permanent magnetic drive unit. To minimize vibration and blood damage, the fluid gaps and the rotational speed have to be adjusted according to the desired operating point of the pump. Further study is needed to optimize the magnetic drive unit and to ascertain its ability to withstand inertial loads imposed by sudden movements and external shock. [source] A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises due to External Shocks: Monetary vs.BULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2004Fiscal Approaches F3 Abstract This paper develops a model for balance-of-payments (BOP) crises triggered by an external shock. Whether an external shock induces a BOP crisis depends crucially on the sequence of policy actions taken by the government's monetary and fiscal authorities. If the fiscal authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the monetary authority, an external shock can lead to a BOP crisis. However, if the monetary authority moves first and imposes an exogenous constraint on the fiscal authority, the same shock does not cause a BOP crisis. [source] Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in ChinaCHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 3 2009Jie Chen E21; E32 Abstract The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model, we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent,transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory. [source] The Regulatory State and Turkish Banking Reforms in the Age of Post-Washington ConsensusDEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2010Caner Bakir ABSTRACT The new era of the Post-Washington Consensus (PWC), promoted under the auspices of International Financial Institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, centres on the need to develop sound financial regulation and strong regulatory institutions, especially in the realm of banking and finance in post-financial crisis developing countries. This article uses an examination of the Turkish banking sector experience with the PWC in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis to show its considerable strengths and weaknesses. The authors argue that the emergent regulatory state in the bank-based financial system has a narrow focus on strengthening prudential regulation, whilst ignoring the increased ,financialization' of the Turkish economy. They identify the positive features of the new era of the PWC in terms of prudential regulation, which has become much more robust in its ability to withstand external shocks. At the same time, however, the article highlights some of the limitations of the new era which resemble the limitations of the PWC. These include the distributional impact of the regulatory reforms within the banking sector, and notably the emergence of foreign banks as the major beneficiaries of this process; weaknesses in promoting productive bank intermediation that finance the real economy and economic growth, leading to poverty reduction via growth of employment whilst stimulating financialization within the economy; and finally, the exclusive focus on prudential regulation, whilst ignoring regulatory costs, consumer protection and competition regulation. [source] How sustainable is the Japanese recovery?ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2004Article first published online: 14 OCT 200 For nearly two years the Japanese economy has grown significantly faster than commentators expected, raising the question of whether the country has finally broken out of its long economic malaise. This article by Simon Knapp examines recent developments to see whether this recovery is sustainable. It argues that over the last year the recovery has broadened out beyond merely the export sector, although there are good reasons to believe that growth as measured by GDP has been overstated and that many serious structural problems remain. Business investment has surged on the back of rising profitability and an improved labour market has helped lift consumer confidence. At the same time the paper recognises the importance of China's boom in stimulating the Japanese economy over the last two years, and estimates that this factor may have boosted the level of GDP by between 1 to 2%. With Chinese growth now moderating to more sustainable levels, export growth will slow over the next year or so. However, domestic demand should now be strong enough, in the absence of major external shocks, to generate GDP growth of around 1.5 to 2% per annum in the medium term; a respectable figure given the country's falling population. [source] Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing CountriesECONOMICA, Issue 295 2007MATHIAS HOFFMANN This paper investigates the hypothesis that in a small open economy flexible exchange rates act as a ,shock absorber' and mitigate the effects of external shocks more effectively than fixed exchange rate regimes. Using a sample of 42 developing countries, the paper assesses whether the responses of real GDP, the trade balance and the real exchange rate to world output and world real interest rate shocks differ across exchange rate regimes. The paper shows that there are significant differences in the variability of macroeconomic aggregates under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. [source] Governing long-term social,ecological change: what can the adaptive management and transition management approaches learn from each other?ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 1 2009Timothy J. Foxon Abstract Maintaining social welfare and opportunity in the face of severe ecological pressures requires frameworks for managing and governing long-term social,ecological change. In this paper we analyse two recent frameworks, adaptive management and transition management, outlining what they could learn from each other. Though usually applied in different domains, the two conceptual frameworks aim to integrate bottom-up and top-down approaches, and share a focus on the ability of systems to learn and develop adaptive capacity whilst facing external shocks and long-term pressures. Both also emphasize learning from experimentation in complex systems, but transition management focuses more on the ability to steer long-term changes in system functions, whilst adaptive management emphasizes the maintenance of system functions in the face of external change. The combination of iterative learning and stakeholder participation from adaptive management has the potential to incorporate vital feedbacks into transition management, which in turn offers a longer-term perspective from which to learn about and manage socio-technical and social,ecological change. It is argued that by combining insights from both frameworks it may be possible to foster more robust and resilient governance of social,ecological systems than could be achieved by either approach alone. The paper concludes by critically reflecting upon the challenges and benefits of combining elements of each approach, as has been attempted in the methodology of a research project investigating social,ecological change in UK uplands. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source] Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Markets: A Non-Crisis Setting,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2010Uluc Aysun The literature has established that emerging market economies are better insulated from large external shocks during a financial crisis when they adopt a flexible exchange rate regime. Looking at the strength of firms' balance sheets, this paper shows that the opposite holds true in non-crisis periods. The reason is that balance sheets and thus spending decisions are less affected by external shocks under fixed regimes. This result is obtained through several theoretical and empirical methodologies that are useful for identifying balance sheet effects in a non-crisis setting. Simulations reveal a larger (smaller) output response under flexible regimes when these effects are included (excluded). Although the transmission of foreign interest rate shocks to domestic interest rates is stronger under fixed regimes, it appears the limited effects on balance sheets generate a more muted output response. [source] The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2007Steven B. Kamin Abstract In this paper, a modified ,early warning system' (EWS) approach is developed to identify the roles of domestic and external factors in emerging market crises. Several probit models of currency crises were estimated for 26 emerging market countries. These models were used to identify the separate contributions to the probabilities of crisis of domestic and external variables. We found that, relative to domestic factors, adverse external shocks and large external imbalances contributed little to the average estimated probability of crisis in emerging market countries, but accounted for much more of the spikes in the probability of crisis estimated to occur during actual crisis years. We interpret these results to suggest that while, on average over time, domestic factors have tended to contribute to much of the underlying vulnerability of emerging market countries, adverse swings in external factors may have been important in pushing economies ,over the edge' and into currency crisis. In consequence, the costs of giving up exchange rate flexibility through adoption of strongly fixed exchange rate regimes,e.g. currency boards or dollarization,may be quite high for some countries. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysisJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 1 2007Stephane Dees This paper presents a quarterly global model combining individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific foreign variables. The global VAR (GVAR) model is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy, over the period 1979,2003. It advances research in this area in a number of directions. In particular, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Using average pair-wise cross-section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international co-movements of business cycles. It develops a sieve bootstrap procedure for simulation of the GVAR as a whole, which is then used in testing the structural stability of the parameters, and for establishing bootstrap confidence bounds for the impulse responses. Finally, in addition to generalized impulse responses, the current paper considers the use of the GVAR for ,structural' impulse response analysis with focus on external shocks for the euro area economy, particularly in response to shocks to the US. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Buying peace or fuelling war: the role of corruption in armed conflictsJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2003Philippe Le Billon Although corruption may have a corrosive effect on economies and rule-based institutions, it also forms part of the fabric of social and political relationships. This endogenous character means that conflict may be engendered more by changes in the pattern of corruption than by the existence of corruption itself. Such changes, frequently associated with domestic or external shocks, can lead to armed conflict as increasingly violent forms of competitive corruption between factions ,fuel war' by rewarding belligerents. Controversially, ,buying-off' belligerents can facilitate a transition to peace; but ,sticks' such as economic sanctions, rather than ,carrots', have dominated international conflict resolution instruments. While ,buying peace' can present a short-term solution, the key challenge for peace-building initiatives and fiscal reforms is to shift individual incentives and rewards away from the competition for immediate corrupt gains. This may be facilitated by placing public revenues under international supervision during peace processes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Rural market imperfections and the role of institutions in collective action to improve markets for the poorNATURAL RESOURCES FORUM, Issue 1 2008Bekele Shiferaw Abstract Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have liberalized markets to improve efficiency and enhance market linkages for smallholder farmers. The expected positive response by the private sector in areas with limited market infrastructure has however been very limited. The functioning of markets is constrained by high transaction costs and coordination problems along the production-to-consumption value chain. New kinds of institutional arrangements are needed to reduce these costs and fill the vacuum left when governments withdrew from markets in the era of structural adjustments. One of these institutional innovations has been the strengthening of producer organizations and formation of collective marketing groups as instruments to remedy pervasive market failures in rural economies. The analysis presented here with a case study from eastern Kenya has shown that marketing groups pay 20,25% higher prices than other buyers to farmers while participation was also positively correlated with adoption of improved dryland legume varieties, crops not targeted by the formal extension system. However the effectiveness of marketing groups is undermined by external shocks and structural constraints that limit the volume of trade and access to capital and information, and require investments in complementary institutions and coordination mechanisms to exploit scale economies. Successful groups have shown high levels of collective action in the form of increased participatory decision making, member contributions and initial start-up capital. Failure to pay on delivery, resulting from lack of capital credit, is a major constraint that stifles competitiveness of marketing groups relative to other buyers. These findings call for interventions that improve governance and participation; mechanisms for improving access to operating capital; and effective strategies for risk management and enhancing the business skills of farmer marketing groups. [source] The Declining Talent Pool of GovernmentAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2010Torun Dewan We consider a government for which success requires high performance by talented ministers. A leader provides incentives to her ministers by firing those who fail. However, the consequent turnover drains a finite talent pool of potential appointees. The severity of the optimal firing rule and ministerial performances decline over time: the lifetime of an effective government is limited. We relate this lifetime to various factors, including external shocks, the replenishment of the talent pool, and the leader's reputation. Some results are surprising: an increase in the stability of government and the exogenous imposition of stricter performance standards can both shorten the era of effective government, and an increase in the replenishment of the talent pool can reduce incumbent ministers' performance. [source] Growth versus Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What It WantsTHE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 3 2008PHILIPPE AGHION ABSTRACT We develop a model in which a firm can devote effort either to increasing sales growth, or to improving per-unit profit margins. If the firm's manager cares about the current stock price, she will favor the growth strategy when the market pays more attention to growth numbers. Conversely, it can be rational for the market to weight growth measures more heavily when it is known that the firm is following a growth strategy. This two-way feedback between firms' strategies and the market's pricing rule can lead to excess volatility in real variables, even absent any external shocks. [source] MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING WITH A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE,THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2006M. HASHEM PESARAN This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran et al. (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol. 22 (2004), pp. 129,162), where country-specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts, , and then consistently combined to form a global vector autoregression. It is shown that the VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where overidentifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. This gives the system a transparent long-run theoretical structure. Similarly, short-run overidentifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. Alternatively, if one has less confidence in the short-run theory the dynamics can be left unrestricted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where variables can be interpreted as proxies for regional and global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated. The paper also provides some new results on the relative importance of external shocks for the UK and the Euro area economies. 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