Extinction Probability (extinction + probability)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Population viability and perturbation analyses in remnant populations of the Andean catfish Astroblepus ubidiai

ECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH, Issue 2 2005
L. A. Vélez-Espino
Abstract ,Astroblepus ubidiai (Actinopterygii; Siluriformes), which is the only native fish of the highlands of the Province of Imbabura, Ecuador, was abundant in the past in the Imbakucha watershed and adjacent drainages but currently it is restricted to a few isolated refuges. Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to detect critical aspects in the ecology and conservation biology of this unique fish. The annual population growth rate (,) was estimated for six remnant populations of this Andean catfish using a deterministic matrix population model. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses complemented the PVA by providing constructive insights into vital rates affecting projections and extinction probabilities. Positive population growth rates were found in all the study populations. The high contributions of juvenile survival to the variance of , and its high elasticity indicated that A. ubidiai population dynamics are highly sensitive to the transition values of this vital rate, which can promptly respond to management or antagonistic perturbations. Allowing fish to survive until the age of first reproduction and permitting the successful reproduction of these individuals will facilitate positive population growth rates, however the very small areas of occupancy, small extent of occurrence and severe fragmentation may still contribute to the extinction risk. Resumen 1. Astroblepus ubidiai (Actinopterygii; Siluriformes), el único pez nativo de los altos Andes en la Provincia de Imbabura, Ecuador, era abundante en el pasado en la cuenca de Imbakucha y en las cuencas adyacentes, pero actualmente existe en unos cuantos refugios geográficamente aislados. 2. Un Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional (AVP) fue necesario para detectar los aspectos críticos en la ecología y biología de conservación de la especie. La tasa anual de crecimiento poblacional (,) se estimó en seis poblaciones remanentes de este pez andino usando un modelo matricial de población. Análisis de sensitividad y elasticidad permitieron la complementación de interpretaciones derivadas del AVP mediante la facilitación de exploraciones constructivas de los efectos relativos de las tasas vitales en proyecciones demográficas y probabilidades de extinción. 3. Todas las poblaciones estudiadas presentaron tasas positivas de crecimiento poblacional a pesar de que factores determinísticos tales como la pérdida de hábitat y fragmentación han llevado la ocurrencia de esta especie a pequeños fragmentos. La alta contribución a la varianza de , y la alta elasticidad de la supervivencia juvenil indicaron que las dinámicas poblacionales de A. ubidiai son altamente sensibles a los valores de transición de esta tasa vital, la cual puede responder con facilidad a actividades de manejo o perturbaciones antagónicas. 4. Facilitando que los peces sobrevivan hasta la edad de primera reproducción y permitiendo la reproducción exitosa de estos individuos son condiciones determinantes para mantener tasas positivas de crecimiento. Sin embargo, aún existe la necesidad de confrontar el riesgo de extinción derivado de pequeñas áreas de ocupación, limitada extensión de ocurrencia, y fragmentación severa. En este artículo también se discute la manera en que el conocimiento de estas circunstancias específicas es esencial para tomar acciones efectivas de conservación. [source]


Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2006
Krithi K. Karanth
Abstract Aim, Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location, Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods, The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results, Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions, The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions. [source]


Floral free fall in the Swiss lowlands: environmental determinants of local plant extinction in a peri-urban landscape

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2007
IVANA STEHLIK
Summary 1Local floras are being depleted by a host of human activities, including habitat destruction and fragmentation, eutrophication, and the intensification of agriculture. Species with particular ecological demands or life-history attributes are more prone to extinction than species with a broader niche. 2We used an old herbarium from the municipality of Küsnacht (Swiss lowlands) as a historical record for comparison with contemporary plant diversity. This comparison revealed that 17% to 28% of all vascular plants that occurred between 1839 and 1915 were extinct by 2003. 3Species of different habitats and life-forms had significantly different rates of extinction: wetlands, disturbed sites and meadows lost most species, whereas forests and rocky habitats were least affected; aquatics and annuals were most prone to extinction, geophytes and hemicryptophytes were intermediate, and phanerophytes and chamaephytes were least affected. 4Species adapted to nutrient-poor soils suffered highest extinction in all habitats, indicating that eutrophication poses an urgent threat to species diversity. Light and soil moisture requirements also had significant effects on extinction, but the direction of the effect varied by habitat. 5When species were grouped into IUCN categories of the red list of Switzerland, the rank order of the observed extinction matched the red list assignment. 6Because many of the remaining species had high estimated extinction probabilities and because extinction is often delayed (extinction debt), a substantial part of the remaining flora of Küsnacht is likely to go extinct in the near future. This will increase the dominance of the common species that already comprise 81% of the local flora. 7The rates and patterns of extinction in Küsnacht are probably representative of surrounding Swiss lowlands and peri-urban landscapes in most developed countries. Studies such as ours can serve as a call for action and form a basis for future monitoring of biodiversity. [source]


How biased are estimates of extinction probability in revisitation studies?

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2006
MARC KÉRY
Summary 1Extinction is a fundamental topic for population ecology and especially for conservation and metapopulation biology. Most empirical studies on extinction resurvey historically occupied sites and estimate extinction probability as the proportion of sites where a species is no longer detected. Possible non-detection of surviving populations is usually not accounted for, which may result in extinction probabilities that are overestimated. 2As part of a large revisitation study in north-east Switzerland, 376 sites with historically known occurrences of a total of 11 plant species 80,100 years ago were visited by two independent observers. Based on typical population size, ramet size and plant architecture, we judged six species as easy to find and five species as hard to find. Using capture,recapture methods to separate non-detection from true extinction, we gauged the bias of extinction probability estimates that do not account for non-detection. 3When non-detection was not accounted for, a single visit resulted in an average estimate of population extinction probability of 0.49 (range 0.27,0.67). However, the mean detection probability of a surviving population during a single visit had an estimated average of only 0.81 (range 0.57,1). Consequently, accounting for non-detection resulted in extinction probability estimates ranging between 0.09 and 0.61 (mean 0.36). Based on a single survey, our revisitation study would have overestimated the extinction rate on average by 11 percentage points (range 5,22%) or by 59% (range 0,250%) relative to the estimated true value. 4A simple binomial argument enables the calculation of the minimum required number of visits to detect a surviving population with high probability (e.g. 95%). For the easy to find species, approximately two visits would be required to find most of the surviving populations, whereas up to four visits would be required for the hard to find species. 5In revisitation studies, only repeated revisits allow the separation of extinction from simple non-detection. Unless corrected for possible non-detection, extinction probability may be strongly overestimated, and hence some control for non-detection is desirable at least in a subset of species/sites in revisitation studies. These issues are also relevant to the estimation of extinction in metapopulation studies and to the collection of quality data for habitat and distribution models. [source]


Measurement error and estimates of population extinction risk

ECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 1 2004
John M. McNamara
Abstract It is common to estimate the extinction probability for a vulnerable population using methods that are based on the mean and variance of the long-term population growth rate. The numerical values of these two parameters are estimated from time series of population censuses. However, the proportion of a population that is registered at each census is typically not constant but will vary among years because of stochastic factors such as weather conditions at the time of sampling. Here, we analyse how such sampling errors influence estimates of extinction risk and find sampling errors to produce two opposite effects. Measurement errors lead to an exaggerated overall variance, but also introduce negative autocorrelations in the time series (which means that estimates of annual growth rates tend to alternate in size). If time series data are treated properly these two effects exactly counter balance. We advocate routinely incorporating a measure of among year correlations in estimating population extinction risk. [source]


Projected population-level effects of thiobencarb exposure on the mysid, Americamysis bahia, and extinction probability in a concentration-decay exposure system

ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 3 2005
Sandy Raimondo
Abstract Population-level effects of the mysid, Americamysis bahia, exposed to varying thiobencarb concentrations were estimated using stage-structured matrix models. A deterministic density-independent matrix model estimated the decrease in population growth rate (,) with increasing thiobencarb concentration. An elasticity analysis determined that survival of middle stages provided the largest contribution to ,. Decomposing the effects of , in terms of changes in the matrix components determined that reduced reproduction had a large influence on population dynamics at lower thiobencarb concentrations, whereas reduced survivorship had the largest impact on populations at higher concentrations. A simulation model of a concentration-decay system was developed to demonstrate the importance of integrating chemical half-life and management practices in determining population viability. In this model, mysids were originally exposed to a high thiobencarb concentration (300 ,g/L) that decayed an order of magnitude in the number of mysid generations corresponding to thiobencarb half-life values under three different exposure regimes. Environmental stochasticity was added to the model to estimate the cumulative extinction probability of mysids exposed to fluctuating concentrations of thiobencarb in random environments. The cumulative extinction probability increased with thiobencarb half-life, stochasticity, and concentration present at the time of a new exposure. The model demonstrated the expansion of population projection models in determining the ecological impact of a population exposed to pesticides. [source]


Metapopulation ecology in the sea: from Levins' model to marine ecology and fisheries science

FISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 2 2004
Jacob P Kritzer
Abstract Marine and fisheries scientists are increasingly using metapopulation concepts to better understand and model their focal systems. Consequently, they are considering what defines a metapopulation. One perspective on this question emphasizes the importance of extinction probability in local populations. This view probably stems from the focus on extinction in Levins' original metapopulation model, but places unnecessary emphasis on extinction,recolonization dynamics. Metapopulation models with more complex structure than Levins' patch-occupancy model and its variants allow a broader range of population phenomena to be examined, such as changes in population size, age structure and genetic structure. Analyses along these lines are critical in fisheries science, where presence,absence resolution is far too coarse to understand stock dynamics in a meaningful way. These more detailed investigations can, but need not, aim to assess extinction risk or deal with extinction-prone local populations. Therefore, we emphasize the coupling of spatial scales as the defining feature of metapopulations. It is the degree of demographic connectivity that characterizes metapopulations, with the dynamics of local populations strongly dependent upon local demographic processes, but also influenced by a nontrivial element of external replenishment. Therefore, estimating rates of interpopulation exchange must be a research priority. We contrast metapopulations with other spatially structured populations that differ in the degree of local closure of their component populations. We conclude with consideration of the implications of metapopulation structure for spatially explicit management, particularly the design of marine protected area networks. [source]


Conservation programmes for African cattle: design, cost and benefits

JOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 2 2005
S.B. Reist-Marti
Summary Information on costs and benefits of conservation programmes for cattle is scarce in the literature and mainly available for Europe. This study aims at simulating cost of and benefits from different kinds of conservation programmes designed for indigenous African cattle. The programmes include installation of a herdbook and activities to promote the breed (HB), in situ conservation with a sire rotation scheme (IS), cryoconservation of semen (CC) and CC combined with in situ conservation (IC). The results indicate that cost of the analysed conservation programmes was generally higher than those reported in the literature for comparable schemes. If cost per effective population size conserved is considered, programmes analysed in this study do not appear to be more expensive. The proposed rotation scheme in IS can be applied to many different production systems and prove to be effective with regard to low increase in kinship. Reduction in extinction probability is found to be higher for conservation programmes that strongly involve farmers and give them part of the responsibility for the breeding population. IC was most efficient with regard to cost per effective population size conserved. However, if cost per reduction in endangerment is considered as criterion for the efficiency of a programme, IS, HB and CC are superior to IC. These findings suggest that decisions on conservation programmes should be based on multiple criteria, and not just on cost per effective population size. [source]


Breeding birds on small islands: island biogeography or optimal foraging?

JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006
GARETH J. RUSSELL
Summary 1We test MacArthur and Wilson's theory about the biogeography of communities on isolated habitat patches using bird breeding records from 16 small islands off the coasts of Britain and Ireland. 2A traditional examination of patterns of species richness on these islands suggests that area and habitat diversity are important predictors, but that isolation and latitude have a negligible impact in this system. 3Unlike traditional studies, we directly examine the fundamental processes of colonization and local extinction (cessation of breeding), rather than higher-order phenomena such as species richness. 4We find that many of MacArthur and Wilson's predictions hold: colonization probability is lower on more isolated islands, and extinction probability is lower on larger islands and those with a greater diversity of habitats. 5We also find an unexpected pattern: extinction probability is much lower on more isolated islands. This is the strongest relationship in these data, and isolation is the best single predictor of colonization and extinction. 6Our results show that examination of species richness alone is misleading. Isolation has a strong effect on both of the dynamic processes that underlie richness, and in this system, the reductions in both colonization and extinction probability seen on more distant islands have opposing influences on species richness, and largely cancel each other out. 7We suggest that an appropriate model for this system might be optimal foraging theory, which predicts that organisms will stay longer in a resource patch if the distance to a neighbouring patch is large. If nest sites and food are the resources in this system, then optimal foraging theory predicts the pattern we observe. 8We advance the hypothesis that there is a class of spatial systems, defined by their scale and by the taxon under consideration, at which decision-making processes are a key driver of the spatiotemporal dynamics. The appropriate theory for such systems will be a hybrid of concepts from biogeography/metapopulation theory and behavioural ecology. [source]


Comparative dynamics of avian communities across edges and interiors of North American ecoregions

JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2006
Krithi K. Karanth
Abstract Aim, Based on a priori hypotheses, we developed predictions about how avian communities might differ at the edges vs. interiors of ecoregions. Specifically, we predicted lower species richness and greater local turnover and extinction probabilities for regional edges. We tested these predictions using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data across nine ecoregions over a 20-year time period. Location, Data from 2238 BBS routes within nine ecoregions of the United States were used. Methods, The estimation methods used accounted for species detection probabilities < 1. Parameter estimates for species richness, local turnover and extinction probabilities were obtained using the program COMDYN. We examined the difference in community-level parameters estimated from within exterior edges (the habitat interface between ecoregions), interior edges (the habitat interface between two bird conservation regions within the same ecoregion) and interior (habitat excluding interfaces). General linear models were constructed to examine sources of variation in community parameters for five ecoregions (containing all three habitat types) and all nine ecoregions (containing two habitat types). Results, Analyses provided evidence that interior habitats and interior edges had on average higher bird species richness than exterior edges, providing some evidence of reduced species richness near habitat edges. Lower average extinction probabilities and turnover rates in interior habitats (five-region analysis) provided some support for our predictions about these quantities. However, analyses directed at all three response variables, i.e. species richness, local turnover, and local extinction probability, provided evidence of an interaction between habitat and region, indicating that the relationships did not hold in all regions. Main conclusions, The overall predictions of lower species richness, higher local turnover and extinction probabilities in regional edge habitats, as opposed to interior habitats, were generally supported. However, these predicted tendencies did not hold in all regions. [source]


How biased are estimates of extinction probability in revisitation studies?

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2006
MARC KÉRY
Summary 1Extinction is a fundamental topic for population ecology and especially for conservation and metapopulation biology. Most empirical studies on extinction resurvey historically occupied sites and estimate extinction probability as the proportion of sites where a species is no longer detected. Possible non-detection of surviving populations is usually not accounted for, which may result in extinction probabilities that are overestimated. 2As part of a large revisitation study in north-east Switzerland, 376 sites with historically known occurrences of a total of 11 plant species 80,100 years ago were visited by two independent observers. Based on typical population size, ramet size and plant architecture, we judged six species as easy to find and five species as hard to find. Using capture,recapture methods to separate non-detection from true extinction, we gauged the bias of extinction probability estimates that do not account for non-detection. 3When non-detection was not accounted for, a single visit resulted in an average estimate of population extinction probability of 0.49 (range 0.27,0.67). However, the mean detection probability of a surviving population during a single visit had an estimated average of only 0.81 (range 0.57,1). Consequently, accounting for non-detection resulted in extinction probability estimates ranging between 0.09 and 0.61 (mean 0.36). Based on a single survey, our revisitation study would have overestimated the extinction rate on average by 11 percentage points (range 5,22%) or by 59% (range 0,250%) relative to the estimated true value. 4A simple binomial argument enables the calculation of the minimum required number of visits to detect a surviving population with high probability (e.g. 95%). For the easy to find species, approximately two visits would be required to find most of the surviving populations, whereas up to four visits would be required for the hard to find species. 5In revisitation studies, only repeated revisits allow the separation of extinction from simple non-detection. Unless corrected for possible non-detection, extinction probability may be strongly overestimated, and hence some control for non-detection is desirable at least in a subset of species/sites in revisitation studies. These issues are also relevant to the estimation of extinction in metapopulation studies and to the collection of quality data for habitat and distribution models. [source]


Invasion impacts diversity through altered community dynamics

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2005
KATHRYN A. YURKONIS
Summary 1Invading plant species often alter community structure, composition and, in some instances, reduce local diversity. However, the community dynamics underlying these impacts are relatively unknown. 2Declines in species richness with invasion may occur via displacement of resident species and/or reduction of seedling establishment by the invader. These two mechanisms differ in the demographic stage of the interaction. 3We document turnover dynamics using long-term permanent plot data to assess the mechanism(s) of invasion impacts of four exotic species on a mixed community of native and exotic species. These mechanisms were evaluated at both the neighbourhood (1-m2 plot) and population (individual species) scales. 4During invasion, species richness declined with increasing invader cover for three of the four invaders. All invaders reduced colonization rates, but had no effect on extinction rates at the neighbourhood scale. Populations differed in their susceptibility to invasion impacts, with significant reductions in colonization for 10 of 25 (40%) species and increases in extinction for only 4 of 29 (14%) species. 5At neighbourhood and population scales, influences of invasion on community dynamics were essentially the same for all invaders regardless of life-form. While individual resident species had some increase in extinction probability, community richness impacts were largely driven by colonization limitation. 6The consistency of invasion impacts across life-forms suggests establishment limitation as a general mechanism of invasion impact. This common causal mechanism should be explored in other systems to determine the extent of its generality. [source]


Demographic variation and population viability in Gentianella campestris: effects of grassland management and environmental stochasticity

JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2001
Tommy Lennartsson
Summary 1,Transition matrix models were used to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity and four different methods of grassland management on dynamics and viability of a population of the biennial Gentianella campestris (Gentianaceae) in species-rich grassland. Data were collected between 1990 and 1995. 2,Continuous summer grazing, the prevailing management strategy in Scandinavian grasslands, resulted in high recruitment of new plants, mainly because litter accumulation was prevented and gaps were created by trampling. Trampling and repeated grazing, however, caused damage which reduced seed production. Lambda for the average matrix was c. 0.77, and a stochastic matrix model yielded an extinction probability for the total population of c. 0.08 within 50 years. 3,Mowing in mid-July (used as a conservation tool) increased seed production, but litter accumulation following re-growth of the vegetation prevented establishment. Lambda and extinction risk were similar to continuous grazing. 4,Mowing in October (another conservation tool) promoted recruitment because of low litter accumulation, but the seed output decreased because plant growth was impaired by tall vegetation. Lambda was 0.64, while the extinction probability was very high (c. 0.98 within 50 years). 5,Mid-July mowing followed by autumn grazing (the historical management regime) yielded high values for both seed production and establishment of rosettes. Lambda was 0.94 and the probability of extinction within 50 years was below detection level. 6,Log-linear analysis showed that the matrices differed significantly both between treatments and between years. The latter indicates environmental stochasticity, here caused by summer drought that increased the extinction risk. Lambda may be slightly underestimated because drought occurred in one out of five summers during the study period, which is high compared with the natural frequency. 7,We conclude that traditional grassland management is more favourable for G. campestris than the methods that prevail in Scandinavia today. This indicates a serious conservation problem, because grazing has replaced traditional management in many of the remaining semi-natural grasslands throughout Europe. [source]


Regional patch dynamics of Cirsium arvense and possible implications for plant-animal interactions

JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 2 2003
S. Eber
Abstract. Plant population biology considers the dynamics of plant modules within stands. However, stands themselves may have considerable regional turnover in space and time. These changes in the number, distribution and size of plant stands generate a dynamic spatial pattern with important implications for the spatial and temporal dynamics of phytophagous insects using these plants as a host. During five successive years we studied the regional distribution and patch dynamics of the creeping thistle Cirsium arvense and the distribution of associated populations of the herbivore Urophora cardui (Diptera: Tephritidae), a specialist stem gall former. The study conducted was in a 15 km2 heterogeneous, agricultural area in northeastern Bavaria. The distribution of the number of plants per patch was skewed with many more small C. arvense patches than large ones. During the five years of study, there was a 50% increase in the number of C. arvense patches, and a decrease in the mean number of plants per patch (= patch size) to less than half the patch size of the first year. Whilst patch size was randomly distributed in space, patch density showed a consistent, non-random spatial pattern. Patch density was spatially auto-correlated, with areas of high or low patch density having a characteristic dimension of ca. 1 km. Patch size was predictable in time and appeared to be regulated by size dependent processes, with the extinction probability of a patch being negatively correlated with its size. Correlated with the decline of C. arvense patch size during the study, the occupancy and total numbers of the herbivore U. cardui had a marked decrease, suggesting that the regional distribution of the stem gall former is not only influenced by patch number but more importantly by the mean patch size. With decreasing patch sizes, U. cardui was faced with an increasingly dynamic landscape due to higher extinction rates of small patches, although the mean distance between host plant patches decreased. [source]


Metapopulation viability of the marsupial Micoureus demerarae in small Atlantic forest fragments in south-eastern Brazil

ANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 3 2000
Daniel Brito
A population viability analysis (PVA) was carried out for populations of the arboreal didelphid Micoureus demerarae in eight small (1.5,15.0 ha) forest fragments in south-eastern Brazil. Analysis was based on field data obtained through demographic studies carried out since 1995. Populations are small, but connected by dispersing individuals, thus forming a metapopulation. Frequency of catastrophic fires was estimated from the Reserve's historical records. We used the computer package VORTEX for all analyses. All populations and the metapopulation were found to be endangered within 100 years (extinction probability > 0.98). A sensitivity analysis was run varying six parameters: three demographic (sex ratio, migration and mortality rates), two environmental (K, fire frequency) and one genetic (level of inbreeding depression). Genetics, K, mortality rates and sex ratio seemed to play major roles to population persistence, whereas catastrophes and migration rates had a secondary role. Among demographic factors, extinction rate was least sensitive to migration rate. Micoureus demerarae can be used as a model species, thus improving our knowledge of how extinction-prone populations of neotropical arboreal marsupials in forest fragments might be, and which management actions could decrease such risks. [source]


Objectives, criteria and methods for using molecular genetic data in priority setting for conservation of animal genetic resources

ANIMAL GENETICS, Issue 2010
P. J. Boettcher
Summary The genetic diversity of the world's livestock populations is decreasing, both within and across breeds. A wide variety of factors has contributed to the loss, replacement or genetic dilution of many local breeds. Genetic variability within the more common commercial breeds has been greatly decreased by selectively intense breeding programmes. Conservation of livestock genetic variability is thus important, especially when considering possible future changes in production environments. The world has more than 7500 livestock breeds and conservation of all of them is not feasible. Therefore, prioritization is needed. The objective of this article is to review the state of the art in approaches for prioritization of breeds for conservation, particularly those approaches that consider molecular genetic information, and to identify any shortcomings that may restrict their application. The Weitzman method was among the first and most well-known approaches for utilization of molecular genetic information in conservation prioritization. This approach balances diversity and extinction probability to yield an objective measure of conservation potential. However, this approach was designed for decision making across species and measures diversity as distinctiveness. For livestock, prioritization will most commonly be performed among breeds within species, so alternatives that measure diversity as co-ancestry (i.e. also within-breed variability) have been proposed. Although these methods are technically sound, their application has generally been limited to research studies; most existing conservation programmes have effectively primarily based decisions on extinction risk. The development of user-friendly software incorporating these approaches may increase their rate of utilization. [source]