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Aggregate Demand (aggregate + demand)
Selected AbstractsChanges in food consumption expenditure in MalaysiaAGRIBUSINESS : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 1 2003Akira Ishida In rapidly developing Asian countries, food consumption has drastically expanded and diversified. Trends in Malaysian food consumption are typical of those of developing countries. The overriding objective of this article, therefore, was to explore the structural changes in food consumption expenditure in West Malaysia after the early 1970s when its food consumption diversified under rapid economic growth and urbanization. We have estimated Engel's expenditure elasticities for food items using aggregated cross-sectional data from the Household Expenditure Survey. Our estimated results clearly indicate that while the expenditure elasticities of away-from-home food, and the elasticities of at-home expenditures for meat, fruits and vegetables, milk and dairy products are relatively high, those of rice and sugar are low. This suggests that the food expenditure structure in West Malaysia has diversified, adding meat, fruits and vegetables, milk and dairy products to the most dominant food item, rice. Moreover, it is likely that the share of food away from home will increase with income enhancement and urbanization due mainly to economic growth. [EconLit citations: Q11 (Aggregate Demand and Supply)]. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 19: 61,76, 2003. [source] Monetary Policy, Credit and Aggregate Supply: The Evidence from ItalyECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2002Riccardo Fiorentini This paper concerns theory and evidence of the monetary transmission mechanisms. Current research has deeply investigated factors, such as dependence of firms on bank credit, that amplify the impact of monetary policy impulses on aggregate demand exerting strong but temporary effects on output and employment. We present an intertemporal macroeconomic equilibrium model of a competitive economy where current production is financed by bank credit, and then we use it to identify supply,side effects of the credit transmission mechanism in data drawn from the Italian economy. We find evidence that the ,credit variables' identified by the model , the overnight rate as a proxy of monetary policy and a measure of credit risk , have permanent effects on employment and output by altering credit supply conditions to firms. To save on space, mathematical proofs, statistical tests and data sources have been gathered in two separate appendices that can be examined on request. (J.E.L.: E2, E5). [source] How Should Macroeconomic Policy Respond to Foreign Financial Crises?,ECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 2 2010Anthony J. Makin F31; F33; F41 This paper examines the impact of global financial crises on the Australian economy and how monetary and fiscal policy may be used to manage economic downturns that result. To do so, it presents a straightforward analytical framework incorporating financial wealth, exchange rate expectations, foreign demand and interest rate risk to analyse the key role played by the nominal exchange rate in insulating national income from the worst effects of foreign financial crises. In the event the economy is not fully insulated by exchange rate depreciation, it shows that, in principle, monetary policy is a superior instrument to fiscal stimulus for restoring aggregate demand to the full employment level. Since monetary policy is not handicapped by numerous problems that render fiscal stimulus less effective, it should normally be considered a sufficient instrument on its own. [source] CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk QuotaEUROCHOICES, Issue 2 2004Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache Summary CAP Reform in the Dairy Sector: Remove Export Subsidies and Retain Milk Quota The reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of June 2003 introduced major policy changes, In the dairy sector the aim is to decrease price distortions between the EU and world dairy markets through successive reductions in milk intervention prices. However, the milk quota system is still in place and successive increases in milk quotas are planned. The question is whether these dairy reforms are going in the right direction given the three main characteristics of the EU dairy sector. First the price inelasticity of both milk supply (due to quota) and domestic demand means that price distortion mainly affects the distribution of economic surplus between consumers and producers but does not generate significant net losses in economic welfare. Second, the ,large country' position of the EU on the world market means that the EU should remove all export subsidies, which will reduce EU exports and increase world prices. Third, the projected increase in EU aggregate demand for milk favours a reduction in all subsidies. The CAP is going in the right direction in the dairy sector. But to reduce price distortions all subsidies should be removed as soon as possible and the milk production quota should be retained. La réforme de la PAC laitiére: supprimer les subventions aux exportations et conserver les quotas La réforme de la PAC en juin 2003 est un changement majeur. En ce qui concerne le secteur laitier, l'idée consiste à diminuer les distorsions entre les prix européens et ceux du marché mondial par une série de réductions progressives du prix d'intervention. En même temps, le système des quotas reste en place et des accroissements progressifs sont envisageés pour les droits à produire. La question. est alors de savoir si une telle politique est bien orientée, compte tenu des trois caractéristiques principales du secteur laitier européen. En premier lieu, la faible élasticité-prix aussi bien de l'offre (à cause des quotas) que de la demande, implique que les distorsions, si elies affectent la répartition des bénéfices entre producteurs et consommateurs, ne génèrent pas de très grandes pertes sociales au niveau du bien-être global. Ensuite, l'importance de l'Union européenne sur les marchés mondiaux implique que l'UE doive réduire ses subventions à l'exportation, ce qui diminuera le volume des exportations et en fera remonter le prix, Enfin, l'accroissement prévisible de la demande globale européenne en produits laitiers devrait conduire G une réduction des subventions de toute sorte. La PAC est done sur la bonne voie en matière laitière. Mais pour réduire les distorsions, il faut le plus vite possible supprimer les subventions et conserver les quotas laitiers. Reform der GAP im Milchsektor: Abschaffung der Exportsubventionen und Beibehaltung der Milchquoten Die Reform der Gemeinsamen Agrarpolitik vom Juni 2003 führt zu erheblichen Politikänderungen. Im Milchsektor ist das Ziel, die Preisverzerrungen zwischen der EU und den Weltmärkten für Milchprodukte durch eine sukzessive Reduzierung der Milchinterventionspreise zu verringern. Das Milchquotensystem bleibt jedoch weiter bestehen und sukzessive Erhöhungen der Milchquoten sind geplant. Es ergibt sich die Frage, ob die Reform bei den vorhandenen drei Charakteristika im EU Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung geht. Erstens bedeuten das gegebene preisunelastische Angebot von Milch (wegen der Quotierung) und die Nachfrage im Inland, dass die Preisverzerrung sich vomehmlich auf die Verteilung der ökonomischen Rente zwischen Konsumenten und Produzenten auswirkt, nicht aber zu bedeutenden Wohlfahrtsverlusten führt. Zweitens fuhrt die Abschaffung aller Exporterstattungen für Milch und Milchprodukte dazu, dass die EU Exporte sinken und damit wegen der EU als relative großes Land die Weltmarktpreise für Milch steigen werden. Drittens begünstigt die vorausgesagte Zunahme in der aggregierten Milchnachfrage in der EU eine Reduzierung aller Subventionen. Die GAP entwickelt sich im Milchsektor in die richtige Richtung. Es sollten aber alle Subventionen so schnell wie möglich abgebaut und die Milchquote sollte aufrechterhalten werden, um Preisverzerrungen zu reduzieren. [source] Uncertain Demand, Heterogeneous Expectations, and Unintentional IPO UnderpricingFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2006Bruce K. Gouldey G12; G24; G30 Abstract Distinguishing between intentional and unintentional incentives to underprice initial public offerings (IPOs), I develop sufficient conditions for the winners' curse postulated by Miller (1977) and implications for intertemporal changes in the magnitude of underpricing. Specifically, I show that unintentional underpricing (and occasional overpricing) of IPOs is a consequence of investors' heterogeneous expectations of the uncertain value of a stock when the supply is constrained and the underwriter's price discovery process only partially identifies aggregate demand. Moreover, an IPO that is oversubscribed in the premarket sale almost certainly will experience a short-term price increase in the secondary market. [source] The Transmission of US Monetary Policy to the Euro Area,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2010Stefano Neri This paper studies how changes in the federal funds rate by the US Federal Reserve affect the eurozone economy. In our analysis, the international transmission mechanism works through movements in the exchange rate, commodity prices, short-term interest rates and the trade balance. We find that an increase in the federal funds rate causes the euro to immediately depreciate, while commodity, and in particular oil, prices decline sharply, reflecting a decline in demand. Lower commodity prices stimulate household consumption in the short run, and the higher aggregate demand induces an expansion of eurozone economic activity. Our results show that the effects of changes in the federal funds rate on commodity prices are greater than previously found in the literature. Our analysis also assesses the likely effects on the eurozone economy of the European Central Bank's (ECB's) own responses to macroeconomic developments. We find that the expansionary effect of lower commodity prices and a depreciated euro on the eurozone economy is partially offset by the ECB increasing short-term nominal interest rates to curb inflationary pressures in an expanding economy. This result highlights the importance of commodity prices and the euro,dollar exchange rate as inputs into European monetary policy-making, as seen, for example, in the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections used by the Governing Council to assess the risks to price stability. [source] Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2007Nicholas Apergis This paper empirically assesses whether monetary policy and its volatility affect real economic activity through their effect on the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy. Analysts typically argue that monetary policy either does not affect the real economy (the classical dichotomy) or only affects the real economy in the short run through aggregate demand (new Keynesian or new classical theories). Real business cycle theorists try to explain the business cycle with supply-side productivity shocks. We provide some preliminary evidence about how monetary policy and its volatility affect the aggregate supply side of the macroeconomy through their effect on total factor productivity and its volatility. Total factor productivity provides an important measure of supply-side performance. The results show that monetary policy and its volatility exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the supply side of the macroeconomy. Moreover, the findings buttress the importance of reducing short-run swings in monetary policy variables as well as support the adoption of an optimal money supply rule. Our results also prove consistent with the effective role of monetary policy during the so-called ,Great Moderation' in US gross domestic product volatility beginning in the early 1980s. [source] Monetary Policy Implementation: Past, Present and Future , Will Electronic Money Lead to the Eventual Demise of Central Banking?INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2000FreedmanArticle first published online: 16 DEC 200 This paper examines the ways in which central banks influence the very short-term interest rate in regimes with and without reserve requirements. It then examines the implications for monetary policy implementation of the spread of electronic money and the potential for other mechanisms to compete with settlement arrangements at central banks. It concludes that it is extremely unlikely that electronic money will displace bank notes or the settlement services that are offered by central banks in the foreseeable future. Moreover, even in the extremely unlikely case that the spread of stored-value cards leads to the elimination of bank notes and that the development of network money permits alternative settlement services to be offered that effectively competes with central bank services, central banks would very likely be able to continue to influence the very short-term rate of interest. They would therefore be able to maintain their influence over aggregate demand and inflation even in such circumstances. [source] US aggregate demand for clothing and shoes: effects of non-durable expenditures, price and demographic changesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSUMER STUDIES, Issue 2 2003Kisung KimArticle first published online: 4 MAR 200 Abstract The main objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of the changes in total non-durables expenditures, prices and US demographics on demand for different clothing categories and shoes in a time-series framework. The basis for the demand model was the almost ideal demand system model. Demographic variables included in the model were age distribution of US population (median age and variance) and proportion of non-white population to the total US population. The results indicate that total non-durable expenditures and price variables are significantly related to consumers' non-durable budget allocations for clothing categories and shoes. The results of the study also show that, among the demographic variables examined in the study, the median age and non-white population were significant variables affecting US aggregate non-durable expenditure allocation on men's and boy's clothing and shoes. All the demand elasticities with respect to total expenditures, own, cross-price and demographics were also estimated. [source] The equity premium and the business cycle: the role of demand and supply shocksINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2010Peter N. Smith Abstract This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The stabilization properties of fixed and floating exchange rate regimesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2004Keith Pilbeam Abstract This paper investigates the price and output stabilization properties of fixed and floating exchange rates using a small open economy model. The performance of the two regimes is compared in the face of money demand, aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks. It is shown that the ranking of the two regimes is extremely sensitive to the weighting of the objective function as between price and output stability, the type of shock impinging upon the economy, the values of structural parameters of the economy and institutional features such as the degree of wage indexation within the economy. The results obtained suggest that estimates of the income elasticity of money demand, the elasticity of aggregate demand to changes in both the real exchange rate and the real interest rate, and the degree of openness of the economy are likely to be important to policymakers when making the choice of exchange rate regime. Neither regime can be said to be dominant in all circumstances. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curveJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 5 2008James M. Nason Phillips curves are central to discussions of inflation dynamics and monetary policy. The hybrid new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) describes how past inflation, expected future inflation, and a measure of real aggregate demand drive the current inflation rate. This paper studies the (potential) weak identification of the NKPC under Generalized Method of Moments and traces this syndrome to a lack of higher-order dynamics in exogenous variables. We employ analytic methods to understand the economics of the NKPC identification problem in the canonical three-equation, new Keynesian model. We revisit the empirical evidence for the USA, the UK, and Canada by constructing tests and confidence intervals based on the Anderson and Rubin (1949) statistic, which is robust to weak identification. We also apply the Guggenberger and Smith (2008) LM test to the underlying NKPC pricing parameters. Both tests yield little evidence of forward-looking inflation dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Demographic change and the demand for environmental regulationJOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2002Matthew E. Kahn Environmental regulation in the United States has increased pollution abatement expenditure as a percentage of gross national product from 1.7 percent in 1972 to an estimated 2.6 percent in the year 2000. This rise in regulation has coincided with demographic and economic changes that include rising educational levels, a growing minority population, an aging population, and decreasing employment in polluting industries. This paper examines whether these trends have contributed to increasing aggregate demand for environmental regulation. New evidence on voting on environmental ballots in California, local government environmental expenditures across the United States, and 25 years of congressional voting on environmental issues is examined to document the demographic correlates of environmental support. Minorities and the more educated are more pro-green, whereas manufacturing workers oppose environmental regulation. While demographics help explain observed differences in environmental support and thus can help predict long trends in the "average voter's" environmentalism, environmentalism varies substantially year to year unrelated to population demographics. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. [source] THE PROFIT,INVESTMENT,UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK-FLOW CONSISTENT MODELMETROECONOMICA, Issue 3 2010Jean-Bernard Chatelain ABSTRACT This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value-added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock-flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand-side versus supply-side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply. [source] ARE LONG-RUN PRICE STABILITY AND SHORT-RUN OUTPUT STABILIZATION ALL THAT MONETARY POLICY CAN AIM FOR?METROECONOMICA, Issue 2 2007Giuseppe Fontana ABSTRACT A central tenet of the so-called new consensus view in macroeconomics is that there is no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The main policy implication of this principle is that all monetary policy can aim for is (modest) short-run output stabilization and long-run price stability, i.e. monetary policy is neutral with respect to output and employment in the long run. However, research on the different sources of path dependency in the economy suggests that persistent but nevertheless transitory changes in aggregate demand may have a permanent effect on output and employment. If this is the case, then, the way monetary policy is run does have long-run effects on real variables. This paper provides an overview of this research and explores conceptually how monetary policy should be implemented once these long-run effects are acknowledged. [source] Wage Hikes as Supply and Demand ShockMETROECONOMICA, Issue 4 2003Jürgen Jerger ABSTRACT Wage hikes affect production costs and hence are usually analysed as supply shocks. There is a long-standing debate, however, about demand effects of wage variations. In this paper, we bring together these two arguments in a Kaldorian model with group-specific saving rates and a production technology that allows for redistribution between workers and entrepreneurs following a wage hike. We thereby pinpoint the conditions under which (a) wage variations affect aggregate demand and (b) the positive demand effects of wage hikes may even overcompensate the negative supply effects on aggregate employment (,purchasing power argument'). We conclude by noting that, whereas demand effects are very likely to occur, the conditions under which the purchasing power argument does indeed hold are very unrealistic. [source] Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy,OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 5 2005Andrew Mountford Abstract This paper adapts Uhlig's [Journal of Monetary Economics (2005) forthcoming] sign restriction identification methodology to investigate the effects of UK monetary policy using a structural vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that shocks which can reasonably be described as monetary policy shocks have played only a small role in the total variation of UK monetary and macroeconomic variables. Most of the variation in UK monetary variables has been due to their systematic reaction to other macroeconomic shocks, namely non-monetary aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and oil price shocks. We also find, without imposing any long run identifying restrictions, that aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects on output. [source] Instrument Insufficiency and Economic StabilisationTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2006Roger J. Bowden Recently concerns have been raised in New Zealand about the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation while avoiding damage to the economy from high exchange rates. This review examines the basis for concern and identifies the problem as a failure in the primary instrument, namely the Reserve Bank's official cash rate, to adequately impact further along the term structure curve, which has become the more sensitive area for aggregate demand. Direct control over expenditure is therefore weak, and too much leeway is left to the housing and other asset markets to sustain demand in the economy. Globalisation of credit availability and financial technology have helped to blunt the policy instrument in this respect, shifting the adjustment burden on to the exchange rate. Deft management of interest and currency expectations can help, but the problem may require closer coordination and cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy, restoring a stabilisation role for the latter. [source] Is the Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Dominant in Australia?THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 249 2004Tomoya Suzuki The transmission process of monetary policy is a longstanding macroeconomic issue. The lending view is that a monetary tightening affects aggregate demand by shifting the supply schedule of bank loans left. The contraction of bank loans does not necessarily mean a shift of the supply schedule. Therefore, testing the lending view requires the identification of the shifts of the demand and supply schedules in the bank loan market. This paper employs an original approach, finding that the lending channel is not dominant in Australia. The paper also examines features of Australian banks' behaviour which make the lending channel less dominant. [source] Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Volatility and International Policy CoordinationTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2002Fernando Alexandre In a linear rational expectations two,country model, using an aggregate demand, aggregate supply framework, we analyse the effects of the adoption of an inflation,targeting regime on exchange rate volatility and the possible scope for policy coordination. This analysis is conducted using optimized interest rate policy rules within a calibrated model. Rules for interest rates that respond either to exchange rates or to portfolio shocks give improved performance and permit gains from international coordination. Optimized Taylor rules perform relatively well. [source] THE AGRICULTURAL TERMS OF TRADE IN BANGLADESH: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND MOVEMENTS, 1952,2006AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2008AKHAND AKHTAR HOSSAINArticle first published online: 21 APR 200 This paper investigates the trends and movements of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade in Bangladesh with annual data for the period 1952,2006. The ADF and KPSS tests results suggest that both agricultural and industrial prices have a unit root while the agricultural terms of trade is trend-stationary. These results remain unchanged if allowance is made in the unit root test for the possibility of a structural break during 1971,1975 (when Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan and experienced economic shocks) by applying the two-step procedure of Perron (1989). A simple Nerlovian agricultural price determination model is specified within the framework of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The Johansen cointegration test results for the periods 1953,2006 and 1973,2006 suggest that there exists a cointegral relationship between agricultural prices, industrial prices, per-capita real income and the real exchange rate between the Bangladeshi taka and the US dollar under the restriction that per-capita real income and the real exchange rate are ,long-run forcing variables' in the sense of Pesaran and Shin (1995), and Pesaran, Shin and Smith (1996). The paper estimates a four-variable vector error-correction (VEC) model and conducts an impulse response analysis for the post-independence period, 1973,2006. [source] COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE APPRECIATION AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIESBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2008Magda Kandil F31; F40; F41; F43 ABSTRACT The paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation on real output and price in a sample of 11 developing countries in the Middle East. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and determine aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods. The evidence indicates that the supply channel attributed to anticipated exchange rate appreciation results in limited effects on output growth and price inflation. Consistent with theory's predictions, unanticipated appreciation of the exchange rate appears more significant with varying effects on output growth and price inflation across developing countries. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||