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Equity Returns (equity + return)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting100%

Selected Abstracts

Nonlinear Dynamic Relations Between Equity Return and Equity Fund Flow: Korean Market Empirical Evidence,

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2010
Sei-Wan Kim
C12; C13; G14; G23 Abstract This research studies the dynamic relationship between equity returns and equity fund flows by incorporating nonlinear properties of the two variables. Nonlinear estimation based on a smooth transition autoregressive model reveals results different from those previously reported based on a linear relationship. Our empirical results find that there is significant mutual Granger causality between equity returns and equity fund flows. In addition, by introducing the dividend yield effect, significant Granger causality is also found between the three variables. This can be interpreted as meaning that demand for equities is downward sloping for both the price pressure effect and the information effect. Relatively fast regime switching and dynamic instability show that stock investment through equity funds is mostly short-horizon-oriented investment. [source]

The Impact of Macroeconomic and Financial Variables on Market Risk: Evidence from International Equity Returns

EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2002
Dilip K. Patro
Using a GARCH approach, we estimate a time,varying two,factor international asset pricing model for the weekly equity index returns of 16 OECD countries. We find significant time,variation in the exposure (beta) of country equity index returns to the world market index and in the risk,adjusted excess returns (alpha). We then explain these world market betas and alphas using a number of country,specific macroeconomic and financial variables with a panel approach. We find that several variables including imports, exports, inflation, market capitalisation, dividend yields and price,to,book ratios significantly affect a country's exposure to world market risk. Similar conclusions are obtained by using lagged explanatory variables, and thus these variables may be useful as predictors of world market risks. Several variables also significantly impact the risk,adjusted excess returns over this time period. Our results are robust to a number of alternative specifications. We further discuss some economic hypotheses that may explain these relationships. [source]

Connecting Optimal Capital Investment and Equity Returns

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2005
R. Burt Porter
Economic theory predicts a contemporaneous correlation between equity returns and investment growth that is only weakly present in the data. By modifying the firm's production function to include a lag between investment decisions and expenditures, and after correcting for the temporal aggregation of investment, I find the predicted correlation to be present in the data. I estimate the model for 31 industries and find that investment returns are highly correlated with the industry portfolio equity returns. Further, the portion of investment returns orthogonal to equity returns is associated positively with changes in profitability and negatively with lagged differences between equity and investment returns. [source]

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2000
Richard D.F. Harris
A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia, the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield , the gilt-equity yield ratio , has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns. [source]

The Stability of the Relation Between the Stock Market and Macroeconomic Forces

ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2002
Fabio Panetta
This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors that influence Italian equity returns and tests the stability of their relation with securities returns. The relation between stock returns and the macroeconomic factors is found to be unstable: not only are the factor loadings of individual securities virtually uncorrelated over time, but a high percentage of the shares experience a reversal of the sign of the estimated loadings. This result is not confined to single periods or to a small group of shares, but holds in different sub,periods and for securities in all risk classes. These findings suggest that research should carefully investigate the specification of the return generating process and the stability of the risk measures. (J.E.L.: G12, E44). [source]

Stock Liquidity and Investment Opportunities: Evidence from Index Additions

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2006
John R. Becker-Blease
We examine the relation between stock liquidity and investment opportunities in a sample of firms experiencing an exogenous liquidity shock. We find a positive relation between changes in capital expenditures and changes in stock liquidity, indicating that stock liquidity influences corporate investment decisions. This relation is robust to alternative measures of growth opportunities, and is consistent with a liquidity premium in equity returns. That is, an increase in liquidity effectively expands the set of positive NPV projects because it reduces the cost of capital. The results suggest that liquidity-enhancing events benefit shareholders by increasing the pool of viable growth opportunities. [source]

Connecting Optimal Capital Investment and Equity Returns

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2005
R. Burt Porter
Economic theory predicts a contemporaneous correlation between equity returns and investment growth that is only weakly present in the data. By modifying the firm's production function to include a lag between investment decisions and expenditures, and after correcting for the temporal aggregation of investment, I find the predicted correlation to be present in the data. I estimate the model for 31 industries and find that investment returns are highly correlated with the industry portfolio equity returns. Further, the portion of investment returns orthogonal to equity returns is associated positively with changes in profitability and negatively with lagged differences between equity and investment returns. [source]

The Interest Rate Risk Exposure of Financial Intermediaries: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

FINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 4 2003
By Sotiris K. Staikouras
The paper surveys current and previous research on financial institutions' interest rate risk exposure. The implications of such exposure are discussed and motivating insights are emphasized. Various theoretical frameworks and models are presented. For each one an overview of the studies and any relationship to each other is provided. In a cross-industry analysis, other idiosyncratic risk factors are considered and their importance is delineated. A number of empirical relations are established. More specifically, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate changes and common stock returns of financial institutions. The intermediaries' apparent yield sensitivity is mainly attributed to the duration gap inherent in their balance sheet structure. Furthermore, the aforesaid equity sensitivity due to other possible dynamics such as dividend yield, unanticipated inflation and regulatory lags is also considered. Changes in economic regimes have altered volatility in market yields with a subsequent effect, positive or negative, on financial intermediaries' equity returns. The issue of the risk-return compensation is further analyzed, and findings suggest that the interest rate risk is priced by capital markets. Finally, a few other issues are identified as avenues for future research. [source]

The flight-to-quality effect: a copula-based analysis

ACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 2 2010
Robert B. Durand
G12 Abstract We derive and estimate a copula combining the features of the Frank and Gumbel copulas to analyse the relationship between equity and long-term bond returns. Our analysis of quarterly returns from 1952 to 2003 finds that, in general, there is a positive relationship between equity returns and bond returns. In extreme situations, however, there is approximately a one-in-seven chance of a flight-to-quality effect where large negative equity returns are associated with large positive bond returns. [source]

Anomalies and stock returns: Australian evidence

ACCOUNTING & FINANCE, Issue 3 2009
Philip Gharghori
G12; G14 Abstract Prior research has identified the existence of several cross-sectional patterns in equity returns, commonly referred to as effects. This paper tests for the existence of a number of well-known effects using data from the Australian equities market. Specifically, we investigate the size effect, book-to-market effect, earnings-to-price effect, cashflow-to-price effect, leverage effect and the liquidity effect. An additional aim of this paper is to investigate the capability of the Fama,French model in explaining any observed effects. We document a size, book-to-market, earnings-to-price and cashflow-to-price effect but fail to find evidence of a leverage or liquidity effect. Although our findings indicate that the Fama,French model can partially explain some of the observed effects, we conclude that its performance is less than satisfactory in Australia. [source]

Liquidity, Volatility and Equity Trading Costs Across Countries and Over Time

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 2 2001
Ian Domowitz
Actual investment performance reflects the underlying strategy of the portfolio manager and the execution costs incurred in realizing those objectives. Execution costs, especially in illiquid markets, can dramatically reduce the notional return to an investment strategy. This paper examines the interactions between cost, liquidity and volatility, and analyses their determinants using panel data for 42 countries from September 1996 to December 1998. We document wide variation in trading costs across countries; emerging markets, in particular, have significantly higher trading costs even after correcting for factors such as market capitalization and volatility. We analyse the inter-relationships between turnover, equity trading costs and volatility, and investigate the impact of these variables on equity returns. In particular, we show that increased volatility, acting through costs, reduces a portfolio's expected return. However, higher volatility reduces turnover also, mitigating the actual impact of higher costs on returns. Further, turnover is inversely related to trading costs, providing a possible explanation for the increase in turnover in recent years. The results demonstrate that the composition of global efficient portfolios can change dramatically when cost and turnover are taken into account. [source]

European monetary policy surprises: the aggregate and sectoral stock market response

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009
Don Bredin
Abstract In this paper we investigate the stock market response to international monetary policy changes in the UK and Germany. Specifically, we analyse the impact of (un)expected changes in the UK and German/Euro area policy rates on the UK and German aggregate and sectoral equity returns in an event study. The decomposition of (un)expected changes in policy rates is based on futures markets. Overall, our results suggest that, the UK monetary policy surprises have a significant negative influence on both aggregate and industry level returns in both countries. The influence of German/Euro area monetary policy shocks appears insignificant for both Germany and the UK. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 9-10 2000
John O'Hanlon
This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex-ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex-ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk-free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators. [source]

The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS FINANCE & ACCOUNTING, Issue 3-4 2000
Richard D.F. Harris
A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia, the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity return. Recently, however, the ratio between the long government bond yield and the equity dividend yield , the gilt-equity yield ratio , has emerged as a variable that has considerable explanatory power for UK equity returns. This paper compares the predictive ability of the gilt-equity yield ratio with these other variables for UK and US equity returns, providing evidence on both in-sample and out-of-sample performance. For UK monthly returns, it is shown that while the dividend yield has substantial in-sample explanatory power, this is not matched by out-of sample forecast accuracy. The gilt-equity yield ratio, in contrast, performs well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Although the predictability of US monthly equity returns is much lower than for the UK, a similar result emerges, with the gilt-equity yield ratio dominating the other variables in terms of both in-sample explanatory power and out-of-sample forecast performance. The gilt-equity yield ratio is also shown to have substantial predictive ability for long horizon returns. [source]

A THEORETICAL AND PRACTICAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM,

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2008
Roelof SalomonsArticle first published online: 10 MAR 200
Abstract In historical perspective, equity returns have been higher than interest rates but have also varied a good deal more. However, the average excess return has been larger than what could be expected based on classical equilibrium theory: the equity risk premium (ERP) puzzle. This paper has two objectives. First, the paper presents a comprehensive overview of the vast literature developed aimed at adjusting theory and testing the robustness of the puzzle. Here we will show that the failure of theory to link asset prices to economics is mostly quantitative by nature and not qualitative (anymore). Second, beyond providing a survey of theory, we aim for a relevant practical angle as well. Our main contribution is that we spend time on why returns have been higher than investors reasonably could have expected. We present evidence that forecasts of equity returns can be enhanced by valuation models: low valuation levels (low price-to-earnings ratios) portend high subsequent returns. While conventional wisdom (several years ago) was to use historical returns to forecast future returns, a growing consensus now recognizes that the predictive power of valuation ratios is preferred. Finally we provide some practical implications based on this predictability. While the ERP is essentially a long-term issue, the likelihood of a lower risk premium increases risk for many and means that short-term volatility might not be neglected. [source]

Nonlinear Dynamic Relations Between Equity Return and Equity Fund Flow: Korean Market Empirical Evidence,

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2010
Sei-Wan Kim
C12; C13; G14; G23 Abstract This research studies the dynamic relationship between equity returns and equity fund flows by incorporating nonlinear properties of the two variables. Nonlinear estimation based on a smooth transition autoregressive model reveals results different from those previously reported based on a linear relationship. Our empirical results find that there is significant mutual Granger causality between equity returns and equity fund flows. In addition, by introducing the dividend yield effect, significant Granger causality is also found between the three variables. This can be interpreted as meaning that demand for equities is downward sloping for both the price pressure effect and the information effect. Relatively fast regime switching and dynamic instability show that stock investment through equity funds is mostly short-horizon-oriented investment. [source]

Risk and Return in the 20th and 21st Centuries

BUSINESS STRATEGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2000
Elroy Dimson
The single most important contemporary issue in finance is the equity risk premium. This drives future equity returns, and is the key determinant of the cost of capital. The risk premium , the expected reward for bearing the risk of investing in equities, rather than in low-risk investments such as bills or bonds , is usually estimated from historical data. This article starts by summarising new evidence on historical returns in twelve major world markets from the authors' recent book, ,The Millennium Book: A Century of Investment Returns'. The authors show that the historical equity risk premium has been lower than previously believed, and argue that the future risk premium is likely to be lower still. They discuss what this implies for the cost of capital, stock market values, and companies' target rates of return. They suggest that many companies are seeking too high a rate of return and thus run the risk of under-investing. [source]