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## EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE (equilibrium + real_exchange_rate)
## Selected Abstracts## CHINA'S EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE: A COUNTERFACTUAL ANALYSIS PACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Rod TyersThe absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth. [source] ## Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment Speeds in High Frequency Data when the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate is Proxied by a Deterministic Trend THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2003Ivan PayaRogoff suggested in 1996 that the dollar,yen real exchange rate represented a ,canonical' case of a trend in the equilibrium real exchange rate. The implied speed of adjustment of the dollar,yen real exchange rate is found to be substantially faster, with half-life shocks of less than 2 years, from estimates of a non-linear model which incorporates a deterministic trend proxying the equilibrium level. We also examine the power of unit root tests against smooth transition non-linear models which incorporate a deterministic trend and the robustness of such non-linear estimations using Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations. [source] ## What Do We Know About Long,run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 4 2002PPPs vs Macroeconomic ApproachesDespite the fact that the presence of non tradable goods is one of the most frequently advanced reasons for the failure of PPP, the empirical analysis conducted in this paper shows that it explains only a very small portion of the long run behaviour of real exchange rates (RERs) in developed countries: in most cases, there appears to be a very strong long run relationship between RERs calculated on price indexes for tradables and non tradables. As a consequence, deviations from PPP usually appear to be as large for both kinds of goods. To a certain extent, this stylised fact is also verified in the case of the yen/dollar RER, yet formerly known as a typical illustration of the so,called Balassa,Samuelson effect. In this context, so,called macroeconomic approaches of ERERs may be viewed as an alternative to all versions of PPP. We develop a model which combines the contributions of the most fruitful dynamic approaches, namely the NATREX and the BEER. An estimate of this model shows that the main long run determinants of the dollar/euro RER are the rate of consumption and the level of technical progress of the euro area relative to the US. [source] ## Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment Speeds in High Frequency Data when the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate is Proxied by a Deterministic Trend THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2003Ivan PayaRogoff suggested in 1996 that the dollar,yen real exchange rate represented a ,canonical' case of a trend in the equilibrium real exchange rate. The implied speed of adjustment of the dollar,yen real exchange rate is found to be substantially faster, with half-life shocks of less than 2 years, from estimates of a non-linear model which incorporates a deterministic trend proxying the equilibrium level. We also examine the power of unit root tests against smooth transition non-linear models which incorporate a deterministic trend and the robustness of such non-linear estimations using Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulations. [source] ## Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS, OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 4 2003Ivan PayaAbstract Two different approaches intend to resolve the ,puzzling' slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996), Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non-linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ,classical' PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46), the BS effect, suggests that a non-constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition-in-deviation non-linear adjustment mechanism towards non-constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non-tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half-life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models. [source] |