Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (el + southern_oscillation)
Selected AbstractsMulti-annual dry episodes in Australian climatic variabilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2009B. G. Hunt Abstract The output from a 10 000-year simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been analysed to investigate the occurrence of multi-year dry episodes for three selected regions of Australia, specifically, the northeast, southeast and southwest of the continent. Results are presented for dry episodes lasting for 8 or more years. An episode is defined as a time interval having consecutive negative rainfall anomalies, but not necessarily a major drought, for each year of the episode. The hydrological consequences of such an episode can persist for over a century. Typically about 30 episodes are found over the 10 000 years of the simulation for each of the three regions. There is little synchronicity between the regions in the occurrence of the dry episodes. While there is an El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence associated with these episodes, it is not continuous over the duration of an episode. Composites of sea surface temperature anomalies over an episode highlight the limited presence of ENSO events. The occurrence of the dry episodes for all three regions is essentially random, with multi-centennial periods without an episode, and episodes at multi-decadal frequency at other times. Following a discussion of possible mechanistic influences, it is concluded that stochastic forcing is responsible for the occurrence of dry episodes. This implies that there is no predictability associated with the initiation, duration or termination of individual dry episodes. This also suggests that the 2000,2007 dry episodes occurring over much of Australia may not be caused by the greenhouse effect. Such an episode has a return period of between 200 and 300 years based on the mean frequency of occurrence in the present simulation. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Davide Zanchettin Abstract While strong relationships have previously been established between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate variability in many parts of the world, previous analyses of ENSO impacts on European rainfalls have been variable and inconclusive. In this paper, the role and apparent interactions of a range of known teleconnections are assessed. It is shown that ENSO events do indeed appear to impact European rainfalls and that these impacts are likely to also depend on the concurrent state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In particular, it is demonstrated that ENSO impacts most significantly on European wintertime rainfalls during positive (warm) phases of the PDO. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] ENSO and the South China Sea summer monsoon onsetINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2007Wen Zhou Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The monsoon onset date (MOD) is defined on the basis of the switch of the 850-hPa zonal winds over the South China Sea (SCS) from easterly to westerly for two consecutive pentads. The ENSO signal is represented by the ocean heat content (OHC), which is proportional to the depth of the 20 °C isotherm. It is found that, in years associated with a warm (cold) ENSO event or the year after, the monsoon tends to have a late (an early) onset and the intensity of the SCSSM also tends to be weaker (stronger). During a 2-year period prior to the onset, anomalies of OHC have an obvious eastward propagation. The 850-hPa flow east of the Philippines, specifically the strength of the subtropical high, is also found to be critical in determining the MOD. The link between these two results appears to be the propagation of cold (warm) subsurface water into the western North Pacific (WNP), which strengthens (weakens) the subtropical high, and hence a late (an early) SCSSM onset. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Features of cross-Pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Q. Li Abstract In this study, we have analyzed the climate features of China and the United States with a focus on the differences, similarities, connectivity, and predictability of precipitation and the relationships between precipitation and large-scale patterns of natural variability. China precipitation is characterized by large seasonality, with a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. The seasonality of precipitation shows an increasing linear tendency in northwest China, with a change of about 20% from 1901 to 1998. A relatively weaker increasing tendency also appears in the Big Bend of Yellow River (BBYR) and the Tibetan Plateau, while southwest China experiences a decreasing tendency. Furthermore, the seasonality in the BBYR shows particularly significant interdecadal variability, while that of southern and eastern China has decreased slightly in the recent decades. Compared to China, the United States as a whole has less precipitation in summer but more precipitation in other seasons. Here, the seasonality of precipitation is only about 24% of that in China. The annual mean precipitation is 64.1 mm per month in the United States, compared to 54.6 mm per month in China. The seasonality of precipitation exhibits a decreasing tendency in the southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Gulf Coast and an increasing tendency in the Great Lakes. The seasonality in the Great Plains exhibits large interdecadal variability. The long-term variations of precipitation are highly seasonally dependent. In summer, a decreasing trend is observed in north China and an increasing trend is found in eastern-central China. However, these trends are almost opposite in spring. In addition, the fall precipitation decreases with time nearly everywhere in China except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley. Results also indicate that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Pacific (NP) fluctuation affect strongly the variations of China and US precipitation. Although these influences vary with regions and seasons, we in particular emphasize the importance of AO and NAO for China precipitation and NP and PDO for US precipitation. In fall, ENSO and PDO are the two phenomena that influence predominantly precipitation variability in both China and the United States We also identify the common phenomena that influence China and US regional precipitation and provide a better understanding of the physical mechanism for precipitation variability through the associated changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Furthermore, we develop a linear regression model, based on multiple regression method by combining the regionally and seasonally varying impacts, to increase the skill of precipitation prediction. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Influences of climate on fire regimes in montane forests of north-western MexicoJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 8 2008Carl N. Skinner Abstract Aim, To identify the influence of interannual and interdecadal climate variation on the occurrence and extent of fires in montane conifer forests of north-western Mexico. Location, This study was conducted in Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.)-dominated mixed-conifer forests in the central and northern plateau of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico. Methods, Fire occurrence was reconstructed for 12 dispersed sites for a 290-year period (1700,1990) from cross-dated fire-scarred samples extracted from live trees, snags and logs. Superposed epoch analysis was used to examine the relationships of tree-ring reconstructions of drought, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with fire occurrence and extent. Results, Years with no recorded fire scars were wetter than average. In contrast, years of widespread fires were dry and associated with phase changes of the PDO, usually from positive (warm) to negative (cold). The influence of the PDO was most evident during the La Niña phase of the ENSO. Widespread fires were also associated with warm/wet conditions 5 years before the fire. We hypothesize that the 5-year lag between warm/wet conditions and widespread fires may be associated with the time necessary to build up sufficient quantity and continuity of needle litter to support widespread fires. Two periods of unusually high fire activity (1770,1800 and 1920,1950) were each followed by several decades of unusually low fire activity. The switch in each case was associated with strong phase changes in both PDO and ENSO. Main conclusions, Climate strongly influences fire regimes in the mountains of north-western Mexico. Wet/warm years are associated with little fire activity. However, these years may contribute to subsequent fire years by encouraging the production of sufficient needle litter to support more widespread fires that occur in dry/cool years. [source] Two major modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoonTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 649 2010Xuguang Sun Abstract We study the two primary modes of variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, as identified using a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The second mode is shown to be related to changes in intensity of the South Asian High at 100 hPa while, consistent with previous work, the first mode is associated with an index for the shear vorticity of the 850 hPa zonal wind over the monsoon region. We show that a linear, dry dynamical model, when driven by the diabatic heating anomalies associated with each mode, can reproduce many of the anomalous circulation features, especially for the first EOF and in the lower troposphere. The model results indicate the importance of diabatic heating anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of both modes, especially EOF-1, and illustrate the role of local diabatic feedback for intensifying the circulation anomalies; in particular, the subtropical anticyclonic anomalies that are found in the positive phase of both modes, and the circulation anomaly associated with the Meiyu/Changma/Baiu rain band. A running cross-correlation analysis shows that the second EOF is consistently linked to both the decaying and the onset phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events throughout the study period (1958,2001). We attribute the connection in the onset phase to zonal wind anomalies along the Equator in the west Pacific associated with this mode. On the other hand, a link between the first EOF and ENSO is found only in the post-1979 period. We note also the role of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean in the dynamics of EOF-1, and a link to the variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the case of EOF-2. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Impact of global warming on ENSO variability using the coupled giss GCM/ZC modelINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2006Dr. Timothy Eichler Research Scientist Abstract This study uses a hybrid coupled model (referred to as the general-circulation model (GCM)/Zebiak/Cane (ZC) model), which consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies' (GISS) Atmospheric general-circulation model (AGCM) coupled to the oceanic component of the ZC intermediate model to assess the impact of global warming on El Niño behavior, with and without the influence of heat introduced from the subtropical Pacific (via subtropical cell (STC) pathway). The baseline GCM/ZC model produces El Niño variability with a two year periodicity and an amplitude of approximately half the magnitude of observed El Niño. The GCM/ZC model also produces an appropriate atmospheric global response to El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) as shown by composites of 500 hPa heights, sea-level pressure (SLP), 200 hPa wind, and precipitation during El Niño and La Niña periods. To evaluate the importance of global warming on ENSO variability, 2× CO2 and 4× CO2 transient simulations were done increasing the atmospheric CO2 one percent per year, then extending the runs for an additional 70 years to obtain equilibrium climates for each run. An additional set of global-warming simulations was run after including a STC parameterization generated by computing 5-year running means of the sea-surface temperature (SST) difference between a transient run and the 1× CO2 GCM/ZC run at the anticipated subduction zones (160,130°W, 20,40°N and 20,44°S, 160,130°W) and adding it to the base of the equatorial mixed-layer of the ZC model with a time lag of 15 years. This effectively alters the vertical temperature gradient of the ZC model, which affects SST via upwelling. Two features of the GCM/ZC response to global warming are emphasized. Firstly, the inclusion of the STC results in a major redistribution of heat across the equatorial Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response in the final equilibrium solution with less variability about the mean. The global warming aspect due to the El Niño-like response results in a positive feedback on global warming, which causes a higher global surface-air temperature (SAT) than identical transient simulations without inclusion of the STC. Secondly, including the STC effect produces a far greater magnitude of global ENSO-like impact because of the reduction of, or even the reversal of, the equatorial Pacific longitudinal SST gradient. The implications of such an extreme climate scenario are discussed. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||