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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (el + nino-southern_oscillation)
Selected AbstractsOceanic influence on the precipitation of the south-east of VenezuelaENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 3 2002Lelys Guenni Abstract The Caroní catchment located in the south-east of Venezuela accounts for 70 per cent of the total hydropower energy of the country. On a year to year basis, it has been shown that low frequency large scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena are highly coupled to the hydroclimatology of the region, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) being a major forcing mechanism of climatic and hydrological anomalies. Regional differences in amplitude and timing are due to complex orographic interactions, land surface-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and the evolution of dominant synoptic meteorological conditions. A detailed analysis of the relationship between rainfall and several large scale ocean-atmospheric variables was carried out to determine the potential use of large scale climatic information as predictors of the rainfall anomalies over the region. The problem was tackled in two ways: (a) first a seasonal dynamic rainfall model was fitted to monthly rainfall for different locations. In this case rainfall is assumed as a normal variate w which has been transformed to account for its departure from normality and truncated to account for the positive probability mass of zero values, which corresponds to negative values of the normal variable. The time series of the model parameters and the macroclimatic variables are inspected for their potential relationship with local rainfall via the stochastic model. (b) Second, dynamic linear regression models between the macroclimatic variables as predictors and the rainfall anomalies as predictant were fitted to evaluate and quantify the significance of these dependencies. Consistent patterns are observed with the Tropical Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperature anomalies, in which a significant negative relationship has been present since 1976, indicating an overall decrease (increase) in rainfall when the Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic are warmer (colder) than normal. In all cases the results suggest that the relationships between rainfall anomalies and the macroclimatic variables are not constant with time. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modeling the influence of oceanic-climatic changes on the dynamics of Pacific saury in the northwestern Pacific using a life cycle modelFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2004YONGJUN TIAN Abstract A life cycle model for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) was developed to clarify the possible causes of interannual and decadal variability in its abundance. In the model, the population of saury is composed of two spawning cohorts: one spawned in the Kuroshio region during autumn,winter and the other spawned in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Transition Zone during winter,spring. The life cycle of saury was divided into six stages: namely egg, larval, juvenile, young, immature and adult stages. The life cycle model combines growth, survival, fishing and reproductive processes, in which the effects of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Kuroshio region and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the winter-spawning cohorts, the effects of SST in the Oyashio region on the spring-spawning cohorts, and the effects of fishing on the two spawning cohorts are taken into account. Results of basic modeling, in which environments are assumed stable and the stock is affected by fishing only, shows that the interannual fluctuations in the abundance are small and could hardly explain the observed large annual changes in abundance. On the contrary, results of modeling incorporating the effects of oceanic-climatic changes corresponded well with actual interannual-decadal variations in abundance. These results suggest the following environmental effects: (1) SST in the Kuroshio region affects decadal changes in abundance; (2) ENSO events influence the survival of the winter spawning cohort and result in large interannual variations in the abundance. It is concluded that large-scale climatic and oceanic changes strongly affect the abundance of saury. [source] Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern OceanGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2009JAUME FORCADA Abstract Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice-obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice-intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species-specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice-obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea-ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice-obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice-intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models. [source] A multi-time scale Australian monsoon indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2010Yoshiyuki Kajikawa Abstract A broad-scale Australian monsoon index (AUSMI) describing multi-time scale variations is defined by using 850 hPa zonal wind averaged over the area (5°S,15°S, 110°E,130°E). This circulation index reflects monsoonal rainfall variability over Northern Australia and maritime continent. The index can be used to depict the seasonal cycle (for instance the onset) and measure the intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variations of the Australian monsoon. The interannual variation of the Australian monsoon onset determined by the AUSMI agrees well with that derived from the rainfall and winds at Darwin in the previous studies. We found a significant anti-correlation between the monsoon onset date and the seasonal (DJF) mean AUSMI anomalies; namely an early onset is accompanied by a strong Australian summer monsoon and vice versa. These interannual variations are also strongly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast, the retreat dates are not significantly different between the strong and weak Australian summer monsoon years. The AUSMI is useful in monitoring the weather and climate variations of the Australian monsoon and validating the performance of climate models. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity in the South China SeaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2010Andy Zung-Ching Goh Abstract This study attempts to identify the factors affecting annual tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China Sea (SCS) using data during the period 1965,2005. The results indicate that the total number of TCs and number of TCs entering the SCS from the Western North Pacific are below normal in El Niño events but above normal during La Niña events. However, for TCs formed inside the SCS, the difference in numbers between the two phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not as obvious. In addition, the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) generally favours less TCs in all categories, while the negative PDO phase favours more. These results may be explained by the fact that the ENSO and the PDO affect TC behaviour through altering the conditions in the WNP to be favourable or unfavourable for TC genesis and movement into the SCS. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Interpreting variability in global SST data using independent component analysis and principal component analysisINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Seth Westra Abstract Component extraction techniques are used widely in the analysis and interpretation of high-dimensional climate datasets such as global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Principal component analysis (PCA), a frequently used component extraction technique, provides an orthogonal representation of the multivariate dataset and maximizes the variance explained by successive components. A disadvantage of PCA, however, is that the interpretability of the second and higher components may be limited. For this reason, a Varimax rotation is often applied to the PCA solution to enhance the interpretability of the components by maximizing a simple structure. An alternative rotational approach is known as independent component analysis (ICA), which finds a set of underlying ,source signals' which drive the multivariate ,mixed' dataset. Here we compare the capacity of PCA, the Varimax rotation and ICA in explaining climate variability present in globally distributed SST anomaly (SSTA) data. We find that phenomena which are global in extent, such as the global warming trend and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are well represented using PCA. In contrast, the Varimax rotation provides distinct advantages in interpreting more localized phenomena such as variability in the tropical Atlantic. Finally, our analysis suggests that the interpretability of independent components (ICs) appears to be low. This does not diminish the statistical advantages of deriving components that are mutually independent, with potential applications ranging from synthetically generating multivariate datasets, developing statistical forecasts, and reconstructing spatial datasets from patchy observations at multiple point locations. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Interannual variability of boreal summer rainfall in the equatorial AtlanticINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2009Guojun Gu Abstract Tropical Atlantic rainfall variations during boreal summer (June,July,August (JJA)) are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979,2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring (March,April,May (MAM)) is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Atlantic maritime intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) (15° ,35°W) strength (PITCZ) are found during both seasons. Variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location (LatITCZ) during JJA, however, are much weaker than during MAM. PITCZ and LatITCZ are shown to be closely associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. Within the tropical Atlantic, the Atlantic Niño events (Atl3) and SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) are the two major local factors modulating surface rainfall patterns and variations. Atl3 is significantly correlated with PITCZ and LatITCZ during JJA and MAM. TNA is significantly correlated to PITCZ during JJA but not to LatITCZ. In contrast, TNA is significantly correlated to LatITCZ during MAM but its correlation with PITCZ is weak. The impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (Nino3.4) is observed during both seasons, while the correlation between Nino3.4 and LatITCZ is slightly weak. However, with the effects of Atl3 and TNA removed, the ENSO tends to have a quite limited direct impact on the tropical Atlantic, specifically over the open ocean. High second-order partial correlation between Nino3.4 and rainfall is generally confined to the western basin and over the northeastern South America. Therefore, during JJA, the two local SST modes are of dominance for the tropical Atlantic rainfall variability. Nevertheless, the ENSO seems to still play an active role in modulating surface zonal wind anomalies in the western basin and then the Atlantic Niño mode. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughtsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2008D. Manatsa Abstract A comparative study of the impact of the anomalous positive Indian Ocean SST gradient, referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall variability for the period 1940,1999, is documented. Composite techniques together with simple and partial correlation analyses are employed to segregate the unique association related to IODZM/ENSO with respect to the Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall. The analysis reveals that the IODZM impact on the country's summer rainfall is overwhelming as compared to that of ENSO when the two are in competition. The IODZM influence remains high (significant above 99% confidence level), even after the influence of ENSO has been removed, while that of ENSO collapses to insignificance (even at 90% confidence level) when the IODZM contribution is eliminated. The relationship between ENSO and Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall seems to be sustained through El Niño occurring in the presence of positive IODZM events. However, when the co-occurring positive IODZM and El Niño events are removed from the analysis, it is apparently clear that ENSO has little to do with the country's rainfall variability. On the other hand, positive IODZM is mostly associated with the rainfall deficits, whether or not it co-occurs with El Niño. However, the co-occurrence of the two events does not necessarily suggest that El Niño influences droughts through the positive IODZM events. The El Niño event components during co-occurrence seem to be unrelated (at least linearly) to the droughts, while the positive IODZM events display a relatively strong relationship that is significant above the 95% confidence level. It thus becomes important to extend the study of this nature to cover the whole of southern Africa, so that the extent of the impact of the phenomena can be realized over the whole region. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Impacts of the basin-wide Indian Ocean SSTA on the South China Sea summer monsoon onsetINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2008Yuan Yuan Abstract This article explores the impacts of the Indian Ocean basin-scale sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset. Basin-wide warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is found to occur in the spring following an El Niño event, and the opposite occurs for a La Niña event. Such changes of the Indian Ocean SSTA apparently prolong the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on the subsequent Asian summer monsoon, mainly through modifying the strength of the Philippine Sea anti-cyclone. Warming in the TIO induces an anomalous reversed Walker circulation over the tropical Indo,Pacific Ocean, which leads to descending motion, and hence suppressed convection in the western Pacific. The intensified Philippine Sea anti-cyclone in May and June advances more westward and prevents the extension of the Indian Ocean westerly flow into the SCS region, thereby causing a late SCS monsoon onset. The case is opposite for the TIO cooling such that the Philippine Sea anti-cyclone weakens and retreats eastward, thus favouring an early onset of the SCS monsoon. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] ENSO history recorded in Agathis australis (kauri) tree rings.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2008Part A: kauri's potential as an ENSO proxy Abstract Although many of the main characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon have been established, uncertainties remain concerning its multidecadal- to millennial-scale evolution. Because of the shortness of the instrumental record, we need to resort to proxy-based reconstructions to investigate ENSO's history prior to the mid 19th century, but the available proxy data is limited in both time and space. Here we investigate the potential for ENSO reconstruction from the tree rings of Agathis australis (kauri). Kauri is a long-lived endemic New Zealand conifer and grows in an ENSO teleconnection region not previously represented in ENSO multi-proxy studies. A high quality 423 year kauri regional master chronology (AD 1580,2002) is constructed. Statistical analysis of the period AD 1876,2002 confirms previous findings that kauri tree rings carry a strong regional-scale climate signal and that ENSO is a significant contributor (predominantly via the western pole of the Southern Oscillation). Kauri carries a signal of both ENSO phases, but with a slight El Niño bias. Growth sensitivity is primarily registered through a five-season window, extending from March (prior to growth initiation in September) through to the following May, with strongest relationships across the middle three seasons (June,February). Relationships appear to be stationary. We conclude that kauri has sufficient ENSO event capture skill to make it a useful addition to future multi-proxy ENSO reconstruction efforts. It may also have potential for stand-alone reconstruction of multidecadal- to millennial-scale evolution of ENSO activity, especially ENSO robustness. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A mid-shelf, mean wave direction climatology for southeastern Australia, and its relationship to the El Niño,Southern Oscillation since 1878 A.D.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2005Ian D. Goodwin Abstract Coastal systems behave on timescales from days to centuries. Shelf and coastal wave climatological data from the Tasman Sea are only available for the past few decades. Hence, the records are too short to investigate inter- and multidecadal variability and their impact on coastal systems. A method is presented to hindcast monthly mid-shelf mean wave direction (MWD) for southeastern Australia, based on the monthly, trans-Tasman mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) difference between northern NSW (Yamba) and the north island of New Zealand (Auckland). The MSLP index is calibrated to instrumental (Waverider buoy) MWD data for the Sydney shelf and coast. Positive/negative trans-Tasman MSLP difference is significantly correlated to southerly/easterly Sydney MWD, and to long/short mean wave periods. The 124-year Sydney annual (MWD) time series displays multidecadal variability, and identifies a significant period of more southerly annual MWD during 1884 to 1914 than in the period since 1915. The Sydney MWD is significantly correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation with the SOI is enhanced during periods when the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) is in its negative state and warm SST anomalies occur in the southwest Pacific region. The Sydney MWD was found to be associated with Pacific basin-wide climate fluctuations associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is correlated with low/high MSLP anomalies over New Zealand and the central Pacific Ocean. Southerly/easterly Sydney MWD is also correlated with cool/warm SST anomalies in the southwest Pacific, particularly in the eastern Coral Sea and Tasman Sea. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstructionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 12 2005Joëlle L. Gergis Abstract Since the mid-1970s, ENSO has changed in character to a predominance of El Niño conditions, the extreme phase of which appears coincidental with increases in global temperature records. Instrumental time series (<150 years) are too short to adequately address the significance of late twentieth-century ENSO variability, thus, multi-century palaeoclimate reconstructions derived from long proxy records are sought. Despite the global influence exerted by ENSO on society, limited consensus exists within the scientific community as to which index best defines the timing, duration and strength of events. Here we address issues associated with the complexity of ENSO characterisation by comparing the ,event capture' ability of two currently used indices of ENSO. It is suggested that the use of a sole ENSO index is undesirable as a given index is only indicative of one physical aspect of the phenomenon, and as such is unlikely to be representative of the wider interactions experienced in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. In an attempt to describe more of the nature and evolution of ENSO events, the Coupled ENSO Index (CEI) classification scheme was devised to identify synchronous oceanic (Niño 3.4 SST) and atmospheric (Southern Oscillation Index) anomalies associated with ENSO for the instrumental period (1871,2003). The CEI is of practical relevance to the ENSO community as it provides an amplitude preserving instrumental baseline for the calibration of proxy records to reconstruct both components of the ENSO system. Analysis of the nature of instrumental ENSO events from the CEI suggests that the frequency and intensity of post-1970 ENSO events (when 50% of all extreme events identified occur) appears the most anomalous in the context of at least the past century. It is hoped that the CEI will facilitate palaeo-ENSO research to systematically resolve the long-term context of past ENSO behaviour to assess whether the apparently anomalous nature of late twentieth-century variability is unprecedented within existing palaeoclimate archives. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Reproductive phenology over a 10-year period in a lowland evergreen rain forest of central BorneoJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2007FRANCIS Q. BREARLEY Summary 1The aim of this study was to document patterns in tree reproductive phenology in a rain forest of central Borneo and examine relationships between phenology and climatic patterns. 2A 10-year data set (1990,2000) of monthly observations of flowering and fruit production of 171 trees (including 39 members of the Dipterocarpaceae) at Barito Ulu, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, showed that most trees (73%) underwent reproductive activity on a supra-annual timescale. 3There were three general flowering (GF) events, in 1991, 1994 and 1997, which were preceded by major drought periods (30-day sliding total rainfall of less than 100 mm for more than 10 days) in which at least 40% of dipterocarps and at least 18% of all other trees underwent synchronized reproductive activity; there was also a minor event in 1990. Around 1.3% of trees flowered and 3.8% produced fruit in months outside of these four events. 4At the community level, the strongest negative correlation was found between the percentage of flowering individuals and total rainfall in the preceding 150 days. 5Within three genera of dipterocarps examined in more detail (Dipterocarpus, Shorea and Vatica) there were clear and consistent patterns of sequential flowering with certain species flowering early in the GF events and others towards the end of these events. 6Our results confirm the importance of large-scale climatic fluctuations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) on plant reproductive phenology in South-east Asian tropical forests and indicate that drought may be a more important cue than low night-time temperatures. [source] 84 Linking environmental forcing, kelp forest habitat dynamics, and community structure in the northeast pacificJOURNAL OF PHYCOLOGY, Issue 2003B.P. Kinlan Habitat-forming species of large brown macroalgae (e.g., kelps) often differ from associated benthic species in resource requirements, sources of disturbance, and dispersal ability. Differences in environmental drivers and demographic processes may cause these habitats to fluctuate at spatial and temporal scales that differ from the "optimal" scale that would promote maximum abundance of any particular associate species. As a result, the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat may exert important effects on benthic community structure and composition. To quantify the spatial and temporal dynamics of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera), a key habitat-former in the NE Pacific, I analyzed a 34-year monthly time series of estimated canopy biomass spanning ,1500 km of coastline (7° of latitude) and digital maps of annual maximum canopy cover. Canopy biomass varied interannually at dominant periods of 4,5 y, 11,13 y and ,20 y, and spatial scales ranging from local (,30 km) to mesoscale (,100,150 km) and regional (,330 km). Temporal dynamics were strongly related to basin-scale climate fluctuations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and spatial patterns were correlated with coastline geomorphology. Digital canopy maps reveal that changes in biomass are associated with shifts in the spatial structure of the kelp habitat. Long-term subtidal community monitoring data from areas with markedly different spatial and temporal scales of kelp forest habitat structure reveal a complex but important influence of habitat dynamics on the distribution of life histories within kelp-associated communities. Future changes in the dynamics of Pacific climate fluctuations may have important implications for kelp forest community structure. [source] Modeling the effects of El Niño, density-dependence, and disturbance on harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) counts in Drakes Estero, California: 1997,2007MARINE MAMMAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2009Benjamin H. Becker Abstract Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) haul-out site use may be affected by natural or anthropogenic factors. Here, we use an 11-yr (1997,2007) study of a seal colony located near a mariculture operation in Drakes Estero, California, to test for natural (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), density-dependence, long-term trends) and anthropogenic (disturbance or displacement related to oyster production activities) factors that may influence the use of haul-out subsites. Annual mariculture related seal disturbance rates increased significantly with increases in oyster harvest (rs= 0.55). Using generalized linear models (GLMs) ranked by best fit and Akaike's Information Criteria, ENSO and oyster production (as a proxy for disturbance/displacement) best explained the patterns of seal use at all three subsites near the mariculture operations, with effects being stronger at the two subsites closest to operations. Conversely, density-dependence and linear trend effects poorly explained the counts at these subsites. We conclude that a combination of ENSO and mariculture activities best explain the patterns of seal haul-out use during the breeding/pupping season at the seal haul-out sites closest to oyster activities. [source] GIOTTO: A coupled atmosphere-ocean general-circulation model: The tropical PacificTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 567 2000Martin Fischer Abstract A new coupled general-circulation model (GIOTTO) has been developed. The individual components are composed of the atmosphere model, ECHAM-4, and the ocean model, MOM (Modular Ocean Model)-1.2. The model domain is global, and no flux correction is applied. The coupling is active between 60°N and 60° S. Poleward of 60° the atmosphere is forced by the climatological sea surface temperature (SST), and the ocean is relaxed towards the climatological SST and sea surface salinity. Further, the sea-ice coverage is prescribed. The coupling interval is set to two hours to resolve the diurnal cycle. In this paper we describe the design of the model, and discuss results of a coupled 20-year integration. The representation of the mean state is realistic, although there is an overall cold SST bias of about one degree centigrade in the tropics, and a tendency to simulate a double Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. The annual cycle, as simulated in the equatorial Pacific, is too weak in the east Pacific and too strong in the warm-pool region. The phase, however, is well captured. The SST variability in the equatorial Pacific is underestimated by about 30%, and the anomalies are too confined to the equator. The main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, like propagation of heat-content anomalies, reflection of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, and westerly wind bursts, however, are correctly represented by the model. A variability analysis based on empirical orthogonal functions indicates that the ENSO mechanisms are simulated correctly. The model also appears to be well balanced with a remarkably low SST drift (0.5 degC decade,1), and a realistic equatorial thermal structure. We are, therefore, confident that the model can be used for experimental seasonal predictions. [source] Trends in the southern oscillation phenomenon and Australian rainfall and changes in their relationshipINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2004Ramasamy Suppiah Abstract An attempt has been made to investigate decadal-scale trends in Australian rainfall and in the southern oscillation index (SOI) and their influence on the relationship between them. Monthly rainfall data from high-quality stations in Australia (from 1900 to 1995), India, Sri Lanka and Tahiti are used. The relationship between the SOI and Australian rainfall is positive, but shows decadal-scale variations during the past century. Although there were extended and severe El Niño events in the early 1990s and in 1997, Australia did not experience the expected severe rainfall deficiencies characteristic of previous events. However, severe drought conditions over eastern Australia were associated with a moderate El Niño event during 2002,03. Long-term fluctuations of March,May (MAM) rainfall show high-frequency variations, but trends during June,August (JJA), September,November (SON) and December,February (DJF) show low-frequency or decadal-scale variations. Trends and multi-decadal fluctuations in all-Australian spring (SON) and summer (DJF) rainfall are strongly dominated by rainfall trend fluctuations in northern and eastern Australia. Austral summer rainfall shows an increasing trend during the 1980s and 1990s, particularly in Queensland and New South Wales, despite the occurrence of extended and severe El Niños. However, some parts of New South Wales and Queensland experienced severe rainfall deficiencies during 2002,03 in conjunction with an El Niño event. The relationship between the SOI and rainfall on the interannual time scale is strong when the SOI and rainfall follow the same direction, but it is weak when they follow opposite directions on a decadal-time scale. The poor correlation during the 1920s and 1930s was due to a slightly increasing trend in the SOI and a stronger decreasing trend in rainfall. A weakening in the relationship between the SOI and rainfall in recent years, after the mid-1970s, is due to a small increase in rainfall in the 1980s and 1990s and a strong decrease in the SOI. Rainfall trends were enhanced (stronger decreases or increases) when the influence of the SOI (or El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO)) was removed. Enhanced increases and decreases are particularly strong during SON and DJF, when the ENSO phenomenon is at the mature stage and also the influence on Australian rainfall is strong. The increasing trend in rainfall during the 1980s and 1990s in some parts of eastern Australia and the decreasing trend in the SOI result in more rainfall for a given SOI compared with the same SOI during the previous period, i.e. before the mid-1970s. A similar analysis was carried out for two periods, before and after 1972, for Tahiti, India and Sri Lanka. The upward or downward shift in regression lines is very clear during the season, that shows a strong relationship between rainfall and the SOI. Moreover, strengthening or weakening of the relationship between rainfall and the SOI is largely dependent on their multi-decadal variations and trends during the past century. Increases in rainfall during the 1980s and the 1990s and decreases in the SOI have weakened their relationship, both in Australia and India. Such a relationship gives more rainfall for a given SOI after 1973. The pattern was reversed for Sri Lanka, where rainfall during the second intermonsoon season has decreased. Analyses of trends in temperature at Darwin and Tahiti and of rainfall over Australia, India, Tahiti and Sri Lanka suggest a regional-scale change in climate, whereas the SOI reflects a change in the large-scale circulation pattern over the Indo-Pacific region after the mid-1970s. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||