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Duration Analysis (duration + analysis)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	76%

Distribution within Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting

Agricultural Economics & Resource Management	50%
General & Introductory Economics	30%

Selected Abstracts

Farmers' objectives as determinants of organic farming adoption: the case of Catalonian vineyard production

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 5 2010
Zein Kallas
Organic farming adoption; Duration analysis; Analytical hierarchy process; Farmers' objectives Abstract This article assesses the decision to adopt organic farming practices. We use Duration Analysis (DA) to determine why farmers adopt organic farming practices and what influences the timing of adoption. We extend previous studies by including farmers' objectives, risk preferences, and agricultural policies as covariates in the DA model. The Analytical Hierarchy Process is used as a multicriteria decision-making methodology to measure farmers' objectives. The empirical analysis uses farm-level data from a sample of vineyard farms in the Spanish region of Catalonia. Farmers' objectives are found to influence the conversion decision. Moreover, farmers who are not risk averse are more likely to adopt organic farming. Results point to the policy changes that have been most relevant in motivating adoption of organic practices. [source]

Modelling the adoption of organic horticultural technology in the UK using Duration Analysis

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2003
Michael Burton
Duration Analysis, which allows the timing of an event to be explored in a dynamic framework, is used to model the adoption of organic horticultural technology in the UK. The influence of a range of economic and non-economic determinants is explored using discrete time models. The empirical results highlight the importance of gender, attitudes to the environment and information networks, as well as systematic effects that influence the adoption decision over the lifetime of the producer and over the survey period. [source]

Farmers' objectives as determinants of organic farming adoption: the case of Catalonian vineyard production

Selection Bias and Continuous-Time Duration Models: Consequences and a Proposed Solution

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2006
Frederick J. Boehmke
This article analyzes the consequences of nonrandom sample selection for continuous-time duration analyses and develops a new estimator to correct for it when necessary. We conduct a series of Monte Carlo analyses that estimate common duration models as well as our proposed duration model with selection. These simulations show that ignoring sample selection issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, including the appearance of (nonexistent) duration dependence. In addition, our proposed estimator is found to be superior in root mean-square error terms when nontrivial amounts of selection are present. Finally, we provide an empirical application of our method by studying whether self-selectivity is a problem for studies of leaders' survival during and following militarized conflicts. [source]

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil-mantled landscapes

EARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 9 2003
M. Casadei
Abstract The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever-expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near-annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in,nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process-based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ,ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity,duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide-producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ,xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ,rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de,ne whether a rainstorm was a signi,cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi,ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide-producing storm during the period 1980,86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi,ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide-producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi,cantly better than the empirical intensity,duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non-producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi,cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

The ratification of ILO conventions: A hazard rate analysis

ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 3 2001
Bernhard Boockmann
There are over 180 ILO conventions in many areas of labour law, industrial relations and social security, but they are not ratified universally: for the conventions adopted between 1975 and 1995, the cumulative probability of ratification is about 13 percent 10 years after their adoption. In this paper, the ratification decision is understood as a transition between two states. Using duration analysis, we identify circumstances which are favourable to this transition. For industrialized countries, the ratification of ILO conventions is shown to depend on internal political factors such as government preferences or the power of left-wing parties in parliament. For developing countries, economic costs of ratification have a significant impact. There is no evidence for external pressure in favour of ratification. Among industrialized member states, there is a clear downward trend in estimated ratification probabilities over the last two decades. [source]

Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between?

GERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2010
Duration of Child Poverty in Germany
Child poverty; duration analysis; unobserved heterogeneity Abstract. This paper analyses the duration of child poverty in Germany. Observing the entire income history from the individuals' birth to their coming of age at age 18, we are able to analyse dynamics in and out of poverty for the entire population of children, whether they become poor at least once or not. Using duration models, we find that household composition, most importantly single parenthood, and the labour market status as well as level of education of the household head are the main driving forces behind exit from and re-entry into poverty and thus determine the (long-term) experience of poverty. [source]

Keeping nurses at work: a duration analysis

HEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 6 2002
Tor Helge HolmåsArticle first published online: 9 AUG 200
Abstract A shortage of nurses is currently a problem in several countries, and an important question is therefore how one can increase the supply of nursing labour. In this paper, we focus on the issue of nurses leaving the public health sector by utilising a unique data set containing information on both the supply and demand side of the market. To describe the exit rate from the health sector we apply a semi-parametric hazard rate model. In the estimations, we correct for unobserved heterogeneity by both a parametric (Gamma) and a non-parametric approach. We find that both wages and working conditions have an impact on nurses' decision to quit. Furthermore, failing to correct for the fact that nurses' income partly consists of compensation for inconvenient working hours results in a considerable downward bias of the wage effect. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Adoption and Abandonment of Organic Farming: An Empirical Investigation of the Irish Drystock Sector

JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2010
Doris Läpple
Q12; C41; Q16 Abstract There is a considerable literature about the adoption of organic farming. However, possible abandonment of organic farming has received scant attention. Thus, relatively little is known about the exit decisions of farmers. In addition, most studies are based on a static framework where it is not possible to account for changes in farmer decisions over time. This article attempts to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the determinants that affect both adoption and abandonment of organic drystock farming over time. The use of duration analysis allows for the consideration of cross-sectional and time-varying factors over the study period from 1981 to 2008. Using this dynamic econometric framework revealed a significant time effect on entry and exit decisions. Overall, the results highlight that where no attempt is made to account for exit decisions and time effects, important information about sustainable farmer decisions may not be taken into consideration. [source]

Entry of foreign banks in Shanghai: implications for business strategies in an increasingly competitive market

MANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 6 2005
M.K. Leung
This paper uses a simple mean-variance choice model as the basis of a duration analysis of the factors determining the decision of a foreign bank to establish a branch in Shanghai, the fast developing financial centre in China. Bank attributes, namely region of origin, parent bank size, the number of international branches and their branch network in China, have a significant impact on the time to entry. A country's share of total foreign direct investment in Shanghai also significantly affects the entry decision. The attributes facilitating entry also provide the foreign bank with a competitive advantage in its foreign currency transactions in Shanghai. However, with the ensuing market liberalisations after China's WTO accession, the entrants' competitiveness may not be sustained in the local currency market, especially following the proactive business strategies of Chinese banks and the protectionist measures of the government. It is expected that only a small number of the entrants will be able to emerge as big market players in the growing domestic currency market in Shanghai. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Risk Management with Duration: Potential and Limitations

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, Issue 2 2000
Gerald O. Bierwag
This paper demonstrates the applicability of duration as a risk management tool for government organizations. Drawing on a real case, we present methodologies for quantifying (a) the durations of real assets on a government's balance sheet, and (b) the durations of the financial assets represented by shares in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In the area of real physical assets on the balance sheet we focus on the highway system and on real estate owned by the government. The methodology for measuring durations of SOEs focuses primarily on an electrical utility. Our main conclusion is that it is feasible to derive excellent practical measures of the real durations of physical assets on a government's balance sheet. Far from being academic curiosities,such durations can be estimated with a fair degree of accuracy in practice. The paper also indicates some of the potential limitations of duration analysis as a risk management tool for such organizations. Résumé En tant que grand succès de la finance académique, l'analyse de durée profite d'une application étendue de la part des praticiens de différents millieux du secteur privé. Cet article démontre la possibilité d'utiliser les durées comme outil de gestion du risque dans les organisations gouvernementales. En se basant sur un cas réel, nous présentons les méthodes pour quantifier (1) les durées des valeurs réelles d'un bilan gouvernemental et (2) les durées des valeurs financières représentées par des parts dans des sociétés d'état. Pour ce qui est des valeurs physiques réelles du bilan, nous nous arr,tons sur le système autoroutier et sur les biens immobiliers possédés par le gouvernement. La méthode de mesure des durées des sociétés d'état focalise sur une compagnie de service électrique. Notre conclusion principale est qu'il est possible de tirer d'excellentes mesures pratiques des durées réelles des valeurs physiques du bilan financier d'un gouvernement. Loin d',tre de pures curiosités académiques, de telles durées peuvent ,tre, en pratique, estimées avec un degré raisonnable de précision. L'article mentionne de plus certaines limites potentielles de l'analyse de durée comme outil de gestion de risque pour de telles organisations. [source]

European Enlargement and Agro-Food Trade

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2008
tefan Bojnec
This paper investigates the level, composition, and differences in the dynamics of revealed comparative advantage and trade specialization patterns of the 12 new member states (NMS-12) as part of the enlarged European Union 27 countries (EU-27). The NMS-12 are classified into four country groups: the Baltic States, the CEFTA-5, and the Mediterranean and the Balkan regions. The empirical analysis employs a regression framework, a duration analysis, Markov transition probability matrices, and mobility indices. Trade increases with the EU enlargement and so does revealed comparative advantage in agro-food products. There are catching-up difficulties, as indicated by revealed comparative advantage, in higher added-value processed products. Le présent article examine le degré, la composition et les différences de la dynamique des avantages comparatifs révélés ainsi que les caractéristiques de la spécialisation du commerce des douze nouveaux pays membres (NPM-12) de l'Union européenne élargie (UE,27). Les 12 nouveaux pays membres sont divisés en quatre groupes: les États baltiques, les cinq pays membres de l'ALECE, la région de la Méditerranée et la région des Balkans. L'analyse empirique utilise un modèle de régression, une analyse de durée, des matrices de probabilités des transitions (Markov) et des indices de mobilité. Les échanges augmentent avec l'élargissement de l'UE tout comme les avantages comparatifs révélés des produits agroalimentaires. On observe des difficultés de rattrapage, comme l'indique l'avantage comparatif révélé, dans le cas des produits transformés à forte valeur ajoutée. [source]