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Drying Trend (drying + trend)
Selected AbstractsModelling climate change in West African Sahel rainfall (1931,90) as an artifact of changing station locationsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Adrian Chappell Abstract Since the major droughts in the West African Sahel during the 1970s, it has been widely asserted that mean annual summer rainfall has declined since the late 1960s. Explanation of this persistent regional drying trend was important for famine early-warning and global climate models. However, the network of rainfall stations changed considerably during that recent period of desiccation. Furthermore, it was difficult to reconcile the calculation of a simple mean value for a region known to have a complex spatial and temporal rainfall pattern. A simple model separated the Sahel into ,wet' and ,dry' regions. This model was inverted against mean annual summer rainfall for the Sahel between 1931 and 1990. Model predictions were found to be insensitive to initial starting conditions. The optimized parameters explained 87% of the variation in observed mean annual summer rainfall. The model predicted the mean annual rainfall in the wet ,coastal' and dry ,continental' regions of the Sahel to be 973 mm and 142 mm respectively. Consequently, the predicted long-term mean annual summer rainfall was 558 mm, 15% greater than that of the observed long-term mean (417 mm). The mean annual summer rainfall for the region was corrected by removing the influence of changing station locations over the study period. No persistent decline was found in mean annual summer rainfall, which suggested that the perceived drying trend was an artifact of the crude statistical aggregation of the data and historical changes in the climate station networks. The absence of a decline in rainfall questioned the validity of the hypotheses and speculations for the causes of the drying trend in the region and its effects on global climate change. It also increased the likelihood that changes over time in other regional and global climate station networks have influenced the performance and interpretation of global climate models. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] High diversity Pleistocene rainforest Dasyurid assemblages with implications for the radiation of the dasyuridaeAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2009JONATHAN CRAMB Abstract It is commonly accepted that dasyurids (Marsupialia: Dasyuridae) radiated in the late Miocene or early Pliocene in response to a drying trend in Australia's climate as evidenced from the high diversity of dasyurids from modern arid environments compared with Miocene rainforest assemblages. However, mid-Pleistocene dasyurid assemblages from cave deposits at Mt Etna, Queensland are more diverse than any previously known from rainforest habitats. New taxa will be described elsewhere, but include three new genera as well as new species of Dasyurus, Antechinus and Phascogale. Comparison of dasyurids from Mt Etna sites that are interpreted as rainforest palaeoenvironments with fossil and extant assemblages indicate that they are at least as diverse as those from modern arid environments. Thus Neogene diversification of dasyurids occurred in both arid and rainforest habitats, but only the former survived continuing aridification. Hence, aridification cannot be invoked for the diversification of all dasyurid lineages. [source] Geophysical evidence for Holocene lake-level change in southern California (Dry Lake)BOREAS, Issue 1 2010BROXTON W. BIRD Bird, B. W., Kirby, M. E., Howat, I. M. & Tulaczyk, S. 2009: Geophysical evidence for Holocene lake-level change in southern California (Dry Lake). Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2009.00114.x. ISSN 0300-9483. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) data are used in combination with previously published sediment cores to develop a Holocene history of basin sedimentation in a small, alpine lake in southern California (Dry Lake). The GPR data identify three depositional sequences spanning the past 9000 calendar years before present (cal. yr BP). Sequence I represents the first phase of an early Holocene highstand. A regression between <8320 and >8120 cal. yr BP separates Sequence I from Sequence II, perhaps associated with the 8200 cal. yr BP cold event. Sequence II represents the second phase of the early-to-mid Holocene highstand. Sequence IIIa represents a permanent shift to predominantly low lake stands beginning ,5550 cal. yr BP. This mid-Holocene shift was accompanied by a dramatic decrease in sedimentation rate as well as a contraction of the basin's area of sedimentation. By ,1860 cal. yr BP (Sequence IIIb), the lake was restricted to the modern, central basin. Taken together, the GPR and core data indicate a wet early Holocene followed by a long-term Holocene drying trend. The similarity in ages of the early Holocene highstand across the greater southern California region suggests a common external forcing , perhaps modulation of early Holocene storm activity by insolation. However, regional lake level records are less congruous following the initial early Holocene highstand, which may indicate a change in the spatial domain of climate forcing(s) throughout the Holocene in western North America. [source] Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya: A Blinking FutureACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 5 2009Julius M. HUHO Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8 mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ,2.54 and ,6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world. [source] Trends in indices for extremes in daily temperature and precipitation in central and western Europe, 1901,99INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 9 2005Anders Moberg Abstract We analyse 20th century trends in six indices for precipitation extremes and four indices for temperature extremes, calculated from daily observational data for European stations. The indices chosen reflect rather moderate extremes. Most of the ,80 stations used are situated in central and western Europe; therefore, results mainly refer to this region. Trends are calculated over 1901,99, 1921,99, 1901,50 and 1946,99. Two different trend estimators are used, and significance is assessed with a bootstrap technique. We find that: Significant increasing precipitation trends over the 20th century dominate in winter for both average precipitation intensity and moderately strong events. Simultaneously, the length of dry spells generally increased insignificantly. There are few significant trends of any sign for precipitation indices in summer, but there are insignificant drying trends over Scandinavia and wetting trends over central and western Europe for 1921,99. The length of dry spells in summer generally increased insignificantly. Both the warm and cold tails of the temperature distribution in winter warmed over the entire 20th century. Notably low values in the cold tail for daily Tmax and Tmin occurred in the early 1940s, leading to strong but insignificant negative trends for 1901,50, whereas little change occurred before 1940. Warming of winters during 1946,99 occurred in both the warm and cold tails for both Tmax and Tmin, with the largest warming in the cold tail for Tmin. The warm tail of daily Tmin (and to a smaller extent Tmax) in summer warmed significantly during the past century. There is more evidence for summer warming in the first half of the century compared with the second half. During 1946,99, the warm tail of daily Tmax in summer was generally warming while the cold tail was cooling (both insignificantly). More digitized daily observational data from various European sub-regions are needed to permit a spatially more extensive analysis of changes in climate extremes over the last century. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||