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Demographic Scenarios (demographic + scenario)
Selected AbstractsGenetic perspectives on forager-farmer interaction in the Luangwa Valley of ZambiaAMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Cesare de Filippo Abstract The transformation from a foraging way of life to a reliance on domesticated plants and animals often led to the expansion of agropastoralist populations at the expense of hunter-gatherers (HGs). In Africa, one of these expansions involved the Niger-Congo Bantu-speaking populations that started to spread southwards from Cameroon/Nigeria ,4,000 years ago, bringing agricultural technologies. Genetic studies have shown different degrees of gene flow (sometimes involving sex-biased migrations) between Bantu agriculturalists and HGs. Although these studies have covered many parts of sub-Saharan Africa, the central part (e.g. Zambia) was not yet studied, and the interactions between immigrating food-producers and local HGs are still unclear. Archeological evidence from the Luangwa Valley of Zambia suggests a long period of coexistence (,1,700 years) of early food-producers and HGs. To investigate if this apparent coexistence was accompanied by genetic admixture, we analyzed the mtDNA control region, Y chromosomal unique event polymorphisms, and 12 associated Y- short tandem repeats in two food-producing groups (Bisa and Kunda) that live today in the Luangwa Valley, and compared these data with available published data on African HGs. Our results suggest that both the Bisa and Kunda experienced at most low levels of admixture with HGs, and these levels do not differ between the maternal and paternal lineages. Coalescent simulations indicate that the genetic data best fit a demographic scenario with a long divergence (62,500 years) and little or no gene flow between the ancestors of the Bisa/Kunda and existing HGs. This scenario contrasts with the archaeological evidence for a long period of coexistence between the two different communities in the Luangwa Valley, and suggests a process of sociocultural boundary maintenance may have characterized their interaction. Am J Phys Anthropol 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] ON THE EVOLUTION OF HARMING AND RECOGNITION IN FINITE PANMICTIC AND INFINITE STRUCTURED POPULATIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2009Laurent Lehmann Natural selection may favor two very different types of social behaviors that have costs in vital rates (fecundity and/or survival) to the actor: helping behaviors, which increase the vital rates of recipients, and harming behaviors, which reduce the vital rates of recipients. Although social evolutionary theory has mainly dealt with helping behaviors, competition for limited resources creates ecological conditions in which an actor may benefit from expressing behaviors that reduce the vital rates of neighbors. This may occur if the reduction in vital rates decreases the intensity of competition experienced by the actor or that experienced by its offspring. Here, we explore the joint evolution of neutral recognition markers and marker-based costly conditional harming whereby actors express harming, conditional on actor and recipient bearing different conspicuous markers. We do so for two complementary demographic scenarios: finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. We find that marker-based conditional harming can evolve under a large range of recombination rates and group sizes under both finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. A direct comparison with results for the evolution of marker-based conditional helping reveals that, if everything else is equal, marker-based conditional harming is often more likely to evolve than marker-based conditional helping. [source] Determining the effects of habitat management and climate on the population trends of a declining steppe birdIBIS, Issue 3 2009MARÍA PAULA DELGADO The Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax is one of the most threatened steppe bird species in Europe, due mainly to agricultural intensification. Despite the relative importance of the Iberian population (approximately 50% of the global population) little is known about its dynamics and trends, especially in core distribution areas. This study evaluates the influences of meteorological factors and land management on the oscillations and medium-term trends of two Little Bustard populations in Central Spain. During 2001,2007, surveys of breeding male and female Little Bustards were carried out in two central Spanish locations: Valdetorres, in Special Protection Area (SPA) no. 139 (1600 ha), and Campo Real, in Important Bird Area (IBA) no. 075 (1150 ha). Densities were 3.3,4.0 and 1.1,2.1 males/km2 in Campo Real, and 1.8,2.2 and 0.6,1.3 females/km2 in Valdetorres. The sex ratio was biased towards males in both cases. Both populations declined during 2001,2007, especially in Valdetorres (60%). Variation in habitat composition did not explain variation in the numbers of males. Both populations were influenced by total precipitation in the preceding October,May period. Results suggest that the Little Bustard may be sensitive to future climate trends in Europe. Finally, different simulated demographic scenarios suggest that low female survival and productivity may be the immediate cause of the decline in Little Bustard populations, which is consistent with their sensitivity to climatic conditions. [source] Non-homogeneous infinitely many sites discrete-time model with exact coalescentMATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES, Issue 6 2010Adam Bobrowski Abstract Kingman's coalescent is among the most fertile concepts in mathematical population genetics. However, it only approximates the exact coalescent process associated with the Wright,Fisher model, in which the ancestry of a sample does not have to be a binary tree. The distinction between the approximate and exact coalescent becomes important when population size is small and time has to be measured in discrete units (generations). In the present paper, we explore the exact coalescent, with mutations following the infinitely many sites model. The methods used involve random point processes and generating functionals. This allows obtaining joint distributions of segregating sites in arbitrary intervals or collections of intervals, and generally in arbitrary Borel subsets of two or more chromosomes. Using this framework it is possible to find the moments of the numbers of segregating sites on pairs of chromosomes, as well as the moments of the average of the number of pairwise differences, in the form that is more general than usually. In addition, we demonstrate limit properties of the first two moments under a range of demographic scenarios, including different patterns of population growth. This latter part complements results obtained earlier for Kingman's coalescent. Finally, we discuss various applications, including the analysis of fluctuation experiments, from which mutation rates of biological cells can be inferred. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A random evolution related to a Fisher,Wright,Moran model with mutation, recombination and driftMATHEMATICAL METHODS IN THE APPLIED SCIENCES, Issue 18 2003Adam Bobrowski Abstract The paper deals with a model of the genetic process of recombination, one of the basis mechanisms of generating genetic variability. Mathematically, the model can be represented by the so-called random evolution of Griego and Hersch, in which a random switching process selects from among several possible modes of operation of a dynamical system. The model, introduced by Polanska and Kimmel, involves mutations in the form of a time-continuous Markov chain and genetic drift. We demonstrate asymptotic properties of the model under different demographic scenarios for the population in which the process evolves. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Chloroplast microsatellites reveal colonization and metapopulation dynamics in the Canary Island pineMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 10 2006MIGUEL NAVASCUÉS Abstract Chloroplast microsatellites are becoming increasingly popular markers for population genetic studies in plants, but there has been little focus on their potential for demographic inference. In this work the utility of chloroplast microsatellites for the study of population expansions was explored. First, we investigated the power of mismatch distribution analysis and the FS test with coalescent simulations of different demographic scenarios. We then applied these methods to empirical data obtained for the Canary Island pine (Pinus canariensis). The results of the simulations showed that chloroplast microsatellites are sensitive to sudden population growth. The power of the FS test and accuracy of demographic parameter estimates, such as the time of expansion, were reduced proportionally to the level of homoplasy within the data. The analysis of Canary Island pine chloroplast microsatellite data indicated population expansions for almost all sample localities. Demographic expansions at the island level can be explained by the colonization of the archipelago by the pine, while population expansions of different ages in different localities within an island could be the result of local extinctions and recolonization dynamics. Comparable mitochondrial DNA sequence data from a parasite of P. canariensis, the weevil Brachyderes rugatus, supports this scenario, suggesting a key role for volcanism in the evolution of pine forest communities in the Canary Islands. [source] Coalescent simulations of Yakut mtDNA variation suggest small founding populationAMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY, Issue 4 2009Mark Zlojutro Abstract The Yakuts are a Turkic-speaking population from northeastern Siberia who are believed to have originated from ancient Turkic populations in South Siberia, based on archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence. In order to better understand Yakut origins, we modeled 25 demographic scenarios and tested by coalescent simulation whether any are consistent with the patterns of mtDNA diversity observed in present-day Yakuts. The models consist of either two simulated demes that represent Yakuts and a South Siberian ancestral population, or three demes that also include a regional Northeast Siberian population that served as a source of local gene flow into the Yakut deme. The model that produced the best fit to the observed data defined a founder group with an effective female population size of only 150 individuals that migrated northwards approximately 1,000 years BP and who experienced significant admixture with neighboring populations in Northeastern Siberia. These simulation results indicate a pronounced founder effect that was primarily kin-structured and reconcile reported discrepancies between Yakut mtDNA and Y chromosome diversity levels. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2009. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] | ||||||||||