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Declining Trend (declining + trend)
Selected AbstractsDeclining Trends in Cesarean Deliveries, Ohio 1989,1996: An Analysis by IndicationsBIRTH, Issue 1 2000Siran M. Koroukian PhD Background:Similar to trends observed nationwide, the rates of cesarean deliveries declined in Ohio during the late 1980s and the early 1990s. This study examined the trends in cesarean deliveries in Ohio from 1989 through 1996, in the presence or absence of indications, and in relation to the use of obstetric procedures. Methods:Birth certificate data for all singleton, liveborn infants in Ohio (n =1,204,859) were used to analyze temporal trends in cesarean sections. Results:The rates of primary and repeat cesarean deliveries declined, respectively, from 15.7 to 12.4 percent and from 83 to 63.3 percent during the 8-year study period. Significant declines in repeat cesarean deliveries were observed both in the presence and absence of documented medical conditions that could present a potential indication for the procedure. The rates of repeat cesareans remained comparable among women with and without documented indications for cesarean section (64% and 61%, respectively). In addition, 45 and 30 percent of repeat cesareans in 1989 and 1996, respectively, were performed in the absence of any documented indications, or on an elective basis. The declines in cesarean delivery rates during the 8-year study period occurred simultaneously with an increase in the use of electronic fetal monitoring, induction, and stimulation of labor. Conclusions:The findings suggest that a sizable proportion of repeat cesarean deliveries in 1996 may be unnecessary, even though a marked decline in the procedure has occurred between 1989 and 1996. [source] Dietary absorption efficiencies and toxicokinetics of polychlorinated biphenyls in ring doves following exposure to aroclor® mixturesENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 11 2000Ken G. Drouillard Abstract Ring doves (Streptotpelia risoria) were fed a meal of pellets spiked with an Aroclor® mixture. Feces were collected from birds after fasting 31 h postexposure and dietary absorption efficiencies (AbE) of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were determined by mass balance. Polychlorinated biphenyl AbEs ranged from 0.86 to 0.97 for individual congeners and were similar to the lipid AbE of 0.90. The AbEs exhibited a declining trend with increasing chemical hydrophobicity. The toxicokinetics of PCBs and dietary lipids in blood plasma were also followed in the exposed birds for 25 h after feeding the contaminated meal. Despite decreasing trends in net AbEs with increasing chemical hydrophobicity, all PCBs exhibited similar blood toxicokinetics as observed for dietary lipids. The PCB plasma uptake rate constants exhibited a positive correlation with chemical hydrophobicity such that the most hydrophobic congener PCB 180 approached the plasma uptake rate constant measured for dietary lipids. Trends in assimilation kinetics of PCBs in blood were not consistent with the general prediction that solubility limitations of chemicals in the unstirred water layer (UWL) contribute to declines in net AbEs for highly hydrophobic chemicals. The data are consistent with a micelle-mediated diffusion model, which indicates that dietary lipids and hydrophobic contaminants can cross the UWL and enter intestinal tissues at equivalent rates; however, solubility limitations of highly hydrophobic chemicals in mixed micelles may contribute to decline in net AbEs. [source] Has ,lifetime prevalence' reached the end of its life?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF METHODS IN PSYCHIATRIC RESEARCH, Issue 4 2009An examination of the concept Abstract Many cross-sectional surveys in psychiatric epidemiology report estimates of lifetime prevalence, and the results consistently show a declining trend with age for such disorders as depression and anxiety. In a closed cohort with no mortality, lifetime prevalence should increase or remain constant with age. For mortality to account for declining lifetime prevalence, mortality rates in those with a disorder must exceed those without a disorder by a sufficient extent that more cases would be removed from the prevalence pool than are added by new cases, and this is unlikely to occur across most of the age range. We argue that the decline in lifetime prevalence with age cannot be explained by period or cohort effects or be due to a survivor effect, and are likely due to a variety of other factors, such as study design, forgetting, or reframing. Further, because lifetime prevalence is insensitive to changes in treatment effectiveness or demand for services, it is a parameter that should be dropped from the lexicon of psychiatric epidemiology. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STROKE, Issue 5 2009J. Sivenius Background It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing. Methods The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland. Results In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11 500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20 100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12 100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983,1997. Conclusions Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000. [source] Comparative analysis of cost factors in sturgeon fingerling production in Iranian hatcheries (2000,2004)JOURNAL OF APPLIED ICHTHYOLOGY, Issue 5 2009H. Salehi Summary Production cost analysis in aquaculture is an essential exercise to assist farm managers. Economic assessment of a farm operation also provides the basis to formulate governmental aquaculture and enhancement policies in many regions. The present study employed questionnaires and interviewed managers while also using governmental statistics to gain insight into production cost variables in Iranian sturgeon hatcheries. Within a decade, production of sturgeon fingerlings for release and stock enhancement increased in Iran to more than 21 million fingerlings by 2004. Costs and contributions of various production factors were determined using data obtained from a questionnaire involving all hatcheries between 2000 and 2004. A team of experts completed the questionnaire data sets while conducting interviews at all sturgeon centres and other related departments. From 2000 to 2004 the contribution of A. persicus was 79% of the total number of sturgeon fingerlings produced followed by A. nudiventris with 7.5% and Huso huso with 6.6%. Among the various expenditures between 2000 and 2004, the costs for permanent and part-time employees contributed the greatest share of total costs, averaging 44%, with a noticeable declining trend from 51% in 2000 to 36% in 2004. Obtaining and incubating fertilized eggs averaged 22% of total costs, increasing during the same time period from 6 to 35%, respectively. On average, the 2000,2004 production cost for a single sturgeon fingerling was estimated at Rials 1667 (US$ 0.20), increasing from Rials 992 (US$ 0.12) to Rials 2623 (US$ 0.29) over these 4 years. Permanent staff at a hatchery was determined as being the principal cost, followed by costs for obtaining fertilized eggs (including broodstock handling). Over the 5-year study period the results indicated that costs for part-time labour declined yearly and, conversely, the costs of obtaining broodstocks as well as fertilizing and incubating eggs increased. Considering the background of hatchery production and stock enhancement of sturgeon species and the results of fishing data, it is possible to arrive at a first estimate of the potential contribution of Persian sturgeon farming to the total catch in Iranian waters; it is assumed that these increases were most likely through stock enhancement. [source] Systemic Administration of Arecoline Reduces Ethanol-Induced Sleeping Through Activation of Central Muscarinic Receptor in MiceALCOHOLISM, Issue 1 2010Yan-Ping Sun Background:, Epidemiological evidence of co-use of alcohol and areca nuts suggests a potential central interaction between arecoline, a major alkaloid of areca and a muscarinic receptor agonist, and ethanol. Moreover, the central cholinergic system plays an important role in the depressant action of ethanol and barbiturates. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of arecoline on pentobarbital- and ethanol-induced hypnosis in mice. Methods:, Male ICR mice were tested for locomotor activity following acute systemic administration of ethanol alone, arecoline alone, or ethanol plus arecoline. For the loss of the righting reflex (LORR) induced by pentobarbital and ethanol, sleep latency and sleeping duration were evaluated in mice treated with arecoline alone or the combination of arecoline and scopolamine or methscopolamine. Results:, Ethanol (1.0 to 3.0 g/kg, i.p.) reduced locomotor activity significantly and a declining trend was observed after treatment with arecoline (0.25 to 1.0 mg/kg, i.p.), but there were no synergistic effects of ethanol and arecoline on locomotor activity. The experiments on LORR demonstrated that arecoline (0.125 to 1.0 mg/kg, s.c.) shortened the duration of sleeping induced by ethanol (4.0 g/kg, i.p.), but not pentobarbital (45 mg/kg, i.p.). In addition, alterations of sleep latency were not obvious in both pentobarbital- and ethanol-induced LORR. Statistical analyses revealed that scopolamine (centrally acting), but not methscopolamine (peripherally acting), could antagonize the effect of arecoline on the duration of ethanol-induced LORR in mice. Conclusions:, These results suggest that central muscarinic receptor is a pharmacological target for the action of arecoline to modulate ethanol-induced hypnosis. [source] Water use (and abuse) and its effects on the crater-lakes of Valle de Santiago, MexicoLAKES & RESERVOIRS: RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2000Javier Alcocer Abstract Most Mexicans live in the arid and semiarid regions that represent two-thirds of the Mexican territory, where water is scarce. Natural, as well as human, causes are favouring the degradation of Mexican lakes. There is a clear need to develop and implement sustainable water-use programmes at a catchment scale. However, the accelerated degradation rate of the Mexican lakes means that there will not be enough time to perform whole-basin evaluations to establish sustainable water-use programmes before the lakes dry up. The case of the Valle de Santiago crater-lakes clearly illustrates the declining trend that Mexican inland aquatic resources follow. Vegetation clearance, overgrazing, abatement of phreatic waters and salinization have induced severe erosion and overall desertification (land degradation) in the basin for what, it seems, a long time (i.e. prehispanic times). In this way, human activities could be provoking at least the following negative consequences: a hotter and drier local climate, water scarcity, dust storms and soil salinization. The aquatic (surface and groundwater) resources of the Valle de Santiago basin have been seriously threatened. Two of the four crater-lakes have already dried up and phreatic mantle abatement reaches up to 2.5 m per year. In spite of these facts, no sustainable water-use programme has been established yet. The future scenery of this Mexican basin looks alarmingly like many other basins in the central and northern Mexican territories. [source] The impact of raptors on the abundance of upland passerines and wadersOIKOS, Issue 8 2008Arjun Amar The issue of predator limitation of vertebrate prey populations is contentious, particularly when it involves species of economic or conservation value. In this paper, we examine the case of raptor predation on upland passerines and waders in Scotland. We analysed the abundance of five wader and passerine species on an upland sporting estate in southern Scotland during an eight-year period when hen harrier, peregrine and merlin numbers increased due to strict law enforcement. The abundance of meadow pipit and skylark declined significantly during this time. Golden plover also showed a declining trend, whereas curlew increased significantly and there was a near significant increase in lapwings. Contrasting the local population trends of these species with trends on nearby areas revealed higher rates of decline for meadow pipit and skylark at the site where raptors increased, but no differences in trends for any of the three wader species. There was a negative relationship between the number of breeding harriers and meadow pipit abundance the same year and between total annual raptor numbers and meadow pipit abundance. Predation rates of meadow pipit and skylark determined from observations at harrier nests suggested that predation in June was sufficient to remove up to 40% of the June meadow pipit population and up to 34% of the June skylark population. This ,quasi-natural' experiment suggests that harrier predation limited the abundance of their main prey, meadow pipit, and possibly the abundance of skylark. Thus, high densities of harriers may in theory reduce the abundance of the prey species which determine their breeding densities, potentially leading to lower harrier breeding densities in subsequent years. We found no evidence to suggest that raptor predation limited the populations of any of the three wader species. We infer that concerns over the impact of natural densities of hen harriers on vulnerable upland waders are unjustified. [source] Dynamics of petroleum markets in OECD countries in a monthly VAR,VEC model (1995,2007)OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Mehdi Asali This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR),vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of deman for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called ,rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. [source] Farm work exposure of older male farmers in Saskatchewan,AMERICAN JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL MEDICINE, Issue 7 2010Donald C. Voaklander PhD Abstract Background The average age of farmers in North America is increasing each year. Research has determined that age and health status are both related to increased risk of injury. The purpose of this research was to determine the association of health and medication factors with exposure to farm work in older male farmers. Methods As part of a cohort study to study determinants of injury on Saskatchewan farms, 5,502 farm people associated with 2,386 Saskatchewan farms were surveyed by mail questionnaire during the winter of 2007. The primary dependent variable was average hours per week of farm work. Independent variables included illnesses, age, and medication use. Results The mean number of hours worked per week by farmers aged 55 years and older was 48. There was a significant relationship between age and hours worked with each year of age accounting for about 0.85,hr less work per week. Medication use was related to a reduction in weekly work hours during the busy fall season but was not related to work exposure averaged over the whole year. In multivariable linear regression analysis, the main contributing variables to farm work exposure were: retired status (,), working off farm (,), and age (,). Conclusion The amount of hours older farmers work on the farm is considerable compared to any other occupational category. While there is a declining trend in the amount of work, a 75-year-old farmer still works, on average, about 34,hr per week. Some farmers do appear to self-limit during busy times of the year if they are taking medication. Am. J. Ind. Med. 53:706,715, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Swift observations of CSS081007:030559+054715ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 2 2010A.P. Beardmore Abstract CSS081007:030559+054715 was discovered by the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey. Optical spectroscopy revealed a multi-peaked H, emission line profile with radial velocities exceeding 1500 km/s, as well as strong Ne emission, suggestive of a neon nova. We monitored the source extensively with the Swift satellite, obtaining a unique dataset spanning 270 days in the soft X-ray and UV bands. The data reveal a soft, blackbody-like spectrum with a temperature around 55 eV (though dependent on the modelling), variable X-ray and UV light curves with a 1.77 day period in both the X-ray and UV bands, a longer timescale modulation of , 50 days, followed by a slowly declining trend in the soft X-ray and UV flux. We highlight the Swift observations and their implications for the SSS nature of this object (© 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] Prevalence of neural tube defects in Australia prior to mandatory fortification of bread-making flour with folic acidAUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 4 2010Samanthi Abeywardana Abstract Objective: To establish baseline prevalence of neural tube defects (NTDs) prior to mandatory folic acid fortification in Australia. Method: Retrospective population based study. Data from the Australian Congenital Anomalies Monitoring System, for 1998,2005 were used to calculate birth prevalence including live/stillbirths of at least 20 weeks gestation or 400 g birthweight. Total prevalence and trends of NTD including terminations of pregnancy (TOPs) before 20 weeks were established using data from South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia because of the incomplete ascertainment in other states. Results: The birth prevalence of NTDs from 1998,2005, was 5/10,000 births. The total prevalence including TOPs was 13/10,000 births. A 26% declining trend in total prevalence was seen from 1992,2005, but the main decline occurred prior to 1998. Women who were Indigenous, socially disadvantaged, young, living in remote areas and had multiple gestations were more likely to give birth to babies with NTDs. Conclusion: The prevalence of NTD has been stable since 1998. Reporting of the birth prevalence alone underestimates the actual prevalence of NTD. Implications: From a public health perspective, future monitoring of NTD following implementation of fortification of bread-making flour with folic acid should include a mixed methods approach; reporting birth prevalence on national data and total prevalence on tri-state data. [source] Hurricane Disturbance Alters Secondary Forest Recovery in Puerto RicoBIOTROPICA, Issue 2 2010Dan F.B. Flynn ABSTRACT Land-use history and large-scale disturbances interact to shape secondary forest structure and composition. How introduced species respond to disturbances such as hurricanes in post-agriculture forest recovery is of particular interest. To examine the effects of hurricane disturbance and previous land use on forest dynamics and composition, we revisited 37 secondary forest stands in former cattle pastures across Puerto Rico representing a range of exposure to the winds of Hurricane Georges in 1998. Stands ranged from 21 to>80 yr since agricultural abandonment and were measured 9 yr posthurricane. Stem density decreased as stands aged, while basal area and species richness tended to increase. Hurricane disturbance exerted contrasting effects on stand structure, contingent on stand age. In older stands, the basal area of large trees fell, shifting to a stand structure characteristic of younger stands, while the basal area of large trees tended to rise in younger stands with increasing hurricane disturbance. These results demonstrate that large-scale natural disturbances can alter the successional trajectory of secondary forest stands recovering from human land use, but stand age, precipitation and soil series were better predictors of changes in stand structure across all study sites. Species composition changed substantially between census intervals, but neither age nor hurricane disturbance consistently predicted species composition change. However, exposure to hurricane winds tended to decrease the abundance of the introduced tree Spathodea campanulata, particularly in smaller size classes. In all sites the abundance of the introduced tree Syzygium jambos showed a declining trend, again most strongly in smaller size classes, suggesting natural thinning through succession. Abstract in Spanish is available at http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/btp [source] Maternal mortality in Yunnan, China: recent trends and associated factorsBJOG : AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS & GYNAECOLOGY, Issue 7 2007J Li Objective, Yunnan Province, located in southwest China, is one of the poorest province in China. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is about twice the national average (56.2/100 000 live births), and in remote mountainous regions, the rate is five times higher. This study aimed to examine the progress in reduction of maternal mortality in the 1990s and early 2000s and the factors associated with this reduction in Yunnan. Design, A population-based, longitudinal, ecological correlation study. Setting, A remote province of China with a proportionately large indigenous population. Population, Populations at county, prefecture and provincial level. Methods, Using maternal mortality data collected at the province, prefecture/region and county levels, trend and time series analyses and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed using SPSS (Version 13). Main outcome measure, MMR and its change over time. Results, MMR declined substantially in the 1990s at a rate of 3.0% per year. Utilisation of prenatal and obstetric care increased and was significantly correlated with the declining trend in MMR. Hospital delivery was a strong predictor of MMR, independent of social and economic development. Both low income and illiteracy were significantly associated with increased MMR. Conclusions, Declines in maternal mortality in Yunnan over the past 14 years appear to reflect health, social and economic interventions implemented in the 1990s. The association of hospital delivery with maternal mortality may be due to the effective management of severe pregnancy and birth complications. Low income and illiteracy were associated with MMR but primarily through their impact on the use of prenatal and obstetric care. [source] Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya: A Blinking FutureACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 5 2009Julius M. HUHO Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8 mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ,2.54 and ,6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world. [source] Persistent increase in the incidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm in Scotland, 1981,2000BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY (NOW INCLUDES EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SURGERY), Issue 12 2003V. A. Best Background: In the 1970s and 1980s, mortality and morbidity rates for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) increased throughout the developed world. As AAAs are associated with similar risk factors to other cardiovascular diseases that have recently decreased in incidence, the incidence of AAA should show a similar declining trend. Methods: Routinely collected data were obtained on all primary diagnoses of aortic aneurysm resulting in death or hospital discharge in Scotland between 1981 and 2000. Trends in the data were analysed according to sex and age, aneurysm site and type of hospital admission. Results: Between 1981 and 2000, 42·3 per cent of the 10 822 deaths from aortic aneurysm in Scotland were attributed to the abdominal aorta. Age-adjusted mortality rates for AAA increased 2·6-fold from 2·62 deaths per 100 000 in 1981 to 6·82 per 100 000 in 2000. Hospital admissions for AAA also rose threefold, with increases in both elective admissions (from 3·05 to 7·80 per 100 000) and emergency admissions (from 7·44 to 11·23 per 100 000). Conclusion: The incidence of AAA has increased over the past 20 years in Scotland. This is unlikely to be due simply to changes in detection and diagnosis, data inaccuracies, coding or ageing of the population. The incidence of both elective and emergency admission for AAA increased, suggesting that a genuine and persistent rise in the incidence of AAA has probably occurred. Copyright © 2003 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STROKE, Issue 5 2009J. Sivenius Background It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing. Methods The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland. Results In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11 500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20 100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12 100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983,1997. Conclusions Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000. [source] Trends in childhood leukemia mortality in Brazil and correlation with social inequalitiesCANCER, Issue 8 2007Karina B. Ribeiro DDS Abstract BACKGROUND. Mortality from childhood leukemia has declined substantially in developed countries but less markedly in the developing world. This study was designed to describe mortality trends in childhood leukemia and the impact of social inequalities on these trends in Brazil from 1980 to 2002. METHODS. Cancer mortality data by cause and estimates of resident population stratified by age and sex were obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System (SIM) for the years 1980 to 2002. Age-standardized (ages 0-19 years) mortality rates were calculated by the direct method using the 1960 world standard population. Trends were modeled using linear regression with 3-year moving average rates as the dependent variable and with the midpoint of the calendar year interval (1991) as the independent variable. The Index of Social Exclusion was used to classify the 27 Brazilian states. Pearson correlation was used to describe the correlation between social exclusion and variations in mortality in each state. RESULTS. Age-standardized mortality rates for boys decreased from 2.05 per 100,000 habitants in 1984 to 1.44 100,000 habitants in 1995, whereas the observed corresponding decline among girls was from 1.60 per 100,000 habitants in 1986 to 1.14 per 100,000 habitants in 1995. Statistically significant declining trends in mortality rates were observed for boys (adjusted correlation coefficient [r2] = 0.68; P < .001) and girls (adjusted r2 = 0.62; P < .001). Significant negative correlations between social inequality and changes in mortality were noted for boys (r = ,0.66; P = .001) and for girls (r = ,0.78; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS. A consistent decrease in mortality rates from childhood leukemia was noted in Brazil. Higher decreases in mortality were observed in more developed states, possibly reflecting better health care. Cancer 2007. © 2007 American Cancer Society. [source] | ||||||||||||||||