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Selected AbstractsBayesian models for relative archaeological chronology buildingJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES C (APPLIED STATISTICS), Issue 4 2000Caitlin E. Buck For many years, archaeologists have postulated that the numbers of various artefact types found within excavated features should give insight about their relative dates of deposition even when stratigraphic information is not present. A typical data set used in such studies can be reported as a cross-classification table (often called an abundance matrix or, equivalently, a contingency table) of excavated features against artefact types. Each entry of the table represents the number of a particular artefact type found in a particular archaeological feature. Methodologies for attempting to identify temporal sequences on the basis of such data are commonly referred to as seriation techniques. Several different procedures for seriation including both parametric and non-parametric statistics have been used in an attempt to reconstruct relative chronological orders on the basis of such contingency tables. We develop some possible model-based approaches that might be used to aid in relative, archaeological chronology building. We use the recently developed Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on Langevin diffusions to fit some of the models proposed. Predictive Bayesian model choice techniques are then employed to ascertain which of the models that we develop are most plausible. We analyse two data sets taken from the literature on archaeological seriation. [source] Residual Autocorrelation Distribution in the Validation Data SetJOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, Issue 2 2000Alessandro Fasso Testing model performance on a data set other than the data set used for estimation is common practice in econometrics, technological stochastic modelling and environmetrics. In this paper, using an ARMAX model, the asymptotic distribution of the residual autocorrelations in the validation data set is given and a ,2 test for overall residual incorrelation is considered. [source] Open-loop Analysis of Transfer Characteristics from Blood Pressure to Heart Rate Using an Effectively Total Artificial HeartARTIFICIAL ORGANS, Issue 1 2004Akira Tanaka Abstract:, ,It is desirable for the dynamic behavior of the drive rate of the artificial heart to be as similar as possible to that of the recipient's heart rate (HR) before implantation. This requires a model which can simulate the behavior of HR on the basis of only the information measured with the limited number of approvable implanted sensors. This article provides a linear time series model for explaining the behavior of HR only with aortic pressure and right atrial pressure. This could be obtained from open-loop analysis using a total artificial heart, which was introduced for measuring HR in vivo and for eliminating its effect on blood pressure. The model was identified in a goat equipped with a special biventricular assist device called the effectively total artificial heart (ETAH). The ETAH was introduced to make an open loop and awake situation in the animal with almost intact autonomic nerves, which could enhance the accuracy and reliability of the identification of the model. The adequacy of the proposed model was ascertained in several data sets measured in two goats, which were different from the data set used for identification. Most of the mean estimation errors were less than 3 beats/min and auto-correlation analysis showed approvable statistical appropriateness. However, it was clarified through comparison with the 1/R control method that the proposed model has a few problems still to be solved before its future implementation as an automatic controller of the TAH. [source] Solar-induced and internal climate variability at decadal time scalesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 6 2005Mihai Dima Abstract Statistical analyses of long-term instrumental and proxy data emphasize a distinction between two quasi-decadal modes of climate variability. One mode is linked to atmosphere,ocean interactions (,the internal mode') and the other one is associated with the solar sunspots cycle (,the solar mode'). The distinct signatures of these two modes are also detected in a high-resolution sediment core located in the Cariaco basin. In the oceanic surface temperature the internal mode explains about three times more variance than the solar mode. In contrast, the solar mode dominates over the internal mode in the sea-level pressure and upper atmospheric fields. The heterogeneous methods and data sets used in this study underline the distinction between these decadal modes and enable estimation of their relative importance. The distinction between these modes is important for the understanding of climate variability, the recent global warming trend and the interpretation of high-resolution proxy data. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A Study of CDK2 Inhibitors Using a Novel 3D-QSAR Method Exploiting Receptor FlexibilityMOLECULAR INFORMATICS, Issue 8 2009Michael Abstract A new 3D-QSAR method based on the novel molecular dynamics methodology, Active Site Pressurization (ASP), has been validated using two cyclin-dependent kinase 2 data sets containing 65 purines and 91 oxindoles. ASP allows the construction of cavity casts that represent the maximal energetically feasible 3D distortion of protein binding sites potentially achievable by induced fit upon binding of ligands. The ASP-QSAR method entails many components of traditional 3D-QSAR strategies but additionally correlates the biological activity of ligand sets with features of ASP-derived binding site cavity casts, thus taking target protein flexibility into account implicitly. Both of the data sets used to validate the ASP-QSAR method resulted in QSAR models that were of exceptional quality and predictivity. A non-cross-validated variance coefficient (R2) between 0.959 and 0.99 and a cross-validated variance coefficient (Q2) of between 0.927 and 0.929 were obtained for these ASP-QSAR models. [source] |