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Daily Time Step (daily + time_step)
Selected AbstractsRisk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 5 2001Accounting for interyear climate variability Abstract The paper firstly discusses the importance of accounting for interyear variability when assessing the likelihood of establishment of an alien pest. The potential establishment of Colorado beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata) is used as an illustration within the geographical context of England and Wales. An aggregate risk index is introduced as a probabilistic representation of the likelihood that a pest might complete a single generation over a 30-year period (1961,90). Data for individual years were used to compute, objectively, the interyear distribution of risk across the landscape. The standard deviation in area at risk (26 800 km2) was high relative to the average proportion of the landscape potentially at risk (95 700 km2). In 40% of years, the area at risk was estimated to be higher than ,average'. Secondly, the paper demonstrates multiple indices of risk that reflect different aspects of pest risk assessment. Viewing risk from a variety of perspectives provides a means of gauging the consistency and therefore reliability of the results. This contrasts with current practice, where a single mapped output is commonly presented to decision makers. Modelling using a daily time step allowed the use of indices to investigate the long-term probabilities of biotic and abiotic events of short duration. These indices include estimates of pest activity and flight potential. [source] Methods for the analysis of trends in streamflow response due to changes in catchment conditionENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2001R. A. Letcher Abstract Two algorithms for analysing changes in streamflow response due to changes in land use and farm dam development, based on the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) and the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) methods, were compared on three catchments in the Macquarie River Basin in NSW, Australia. In order to account for the influence of climatic conditions on streamflow response, the IHACRES conceptual rainfall-runoff model was calibrated on a daily time step over two-year periods then simulated over the entire period of concurrent rainfall, streamflow and temperature data. Residuals or differences between observed and simulated flows were calculated. The EGLS method was applied to a smoothing of the residual (daily) time series. Such residuals represent the difference between the simulated streamflow response to a fixed catchment condition (in the calibration period) and that due to the actual varying conditions throughout the record period. The GAM method was applied to quarterly aggregated residuals. The methods provided similar qualitative results for trends in residual streamflow response in each catchment for models with a good fitting performance on the calibration period in terms of a number of statistics, i.e. the coefficient of efficiency R2, bias and average relative parameter error (ARPE). It was found that the fit of the IHACRES model to the calibration period is critically important in determining trend values and significance. Models with well identified parameters and less correlation between rainfall and model residuals are likely to give the best results for trend analysis. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Pan-European regional-scale modelling of water and N efficiencies of rapeseed cultivation for biodiesel productionGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2009MARIJN VAN DER VELDE Abstract The energy produced from the investment in biofuel crops needs to account for the environmental impacts on soil, water, climate change and ecosystem services. A regionalized approach is needed to evaluate the environmental costs of large-scale biofuel production. We present a regional pan-European simulation of rapeseed (Brassica napus) cultivation. Rapeseed is the European Union's dominant biofuel crop with a share of about 80% of the feedstock. To improve the assessment of the environmental impact of this biodiesel production, we performed a pan-European simulation of rapeseed cultivation at a 10 × 10 km scale with Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC). The model runs with a daily time step and model input consists of spatialized meteorological measurements, and topographic, soil, land use, and farm management practices data and information. Default EPIC model parameters were calibrated based on literature. Modelled rapeseed yields were satisfactory compared with yields at regional level reported for 151 regions obtained for the period from 1995 to 2003 for 27 European Union member countries, along with consistent modelled and reported yield responses to precipitation, radiation and vapour pressure deficit at regional level. The model is currently set up so that plant nutrient stress is not occurring. Total fertilizer consumption at country level was compared with IFA/FAO data. This approach allows us to evaluate environmental pressures and efficiencies arising from and associated with rapeseed cultivation to further complete the environmental balance of biofuel production and consumption. [source] Estimation of rainfall from infrared-microwave satellite data for basin-scale hydrologic modellingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 15 2010Oscar Anthony Kalinga Abstract The infrared-microwave rainfall algorithm (IMRA) was developed for retrieving spatial rainfall from infrared (IR) brightness temperatures (TBs) of satellite sensors to provide supplementary information to the rainfall field, and to decrease the traditional dependency on limited rain gauge data that are point measurements. In IMRA, a SLOPE technique (ST) was developed for discriminating rain/no-rain pixels through IR image cloud-top temperature gradient, and 243K as the IR threshold temperature for minimum detectable rainfall rate. IMRA also allows for the adjustment of rainfall derived from IR-TB using microwave (MW) TBs. In this study, IMRA rainfall estimates were assessed on hourly and daily basis for different spatial scales (4, 12, 20, and 100 km) using NCEP stage IV gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data, and daily rain gauge data. IMRA was assessed in terms of the accuracy of the rainfall estimates and the basin streamflow simulated by the hydrologic model, Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC-SMA), driven by the rainfall data. The results show that the ST option of IMRA gave accurate satellite rainfall estimates for both light and heavy rainfall systems while the Hessian technique only gave accurate estimates for the convective systems. At daily time step, there was no improvement in IR-satellite rainfall estimates adjusted with MW TBs. The basin-scale streamflow simulated by SAC-SMA driven by satellite rainfall data was marginally better than when SAC-SMA was driven by rain gauge data, and was similar to the case using radar data, reflecting the potential applications of satellite rainfall in basin-scale hydrologic modelling. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Impact of time-scale of the calibration objective function on the performance of watershed modelsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 25 2007K. P. Sudheer Abstract Many of the continuous watershed models perform all their computations on a daily time step, yet they are often calibrated at an annual or monthly time-scale that may not guarantee good simulation performance on a daily time step. The major objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the calibration time-scale on model predictive ability. This study considered the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the analyses, and it has been calibrated at two time-scales, viz. monthly and daily for the War Eagle Creek watershed in the USA. The results demonstrate that the model's performance at the smaller time-scale (such as daily) cannot be ensured by calibrating them at a larger time-scale (such as monthly). It is observed that, even though the calibrated model possesses satisfactory ,goodness of fit' statistics, the simulation residuals failed to confirm the assumption of their homoscedasticity and independence. The results imply that evaluation of models should be conducted considering their behavior in various aspects of simulation, such as predictive uncertainty, hydrograph characteristics, ability to preserve statistical properties of the historic flow series, etc. The study enlightens the scope for improving/developing effective autocalibration procedures at the daily time step for watershed models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Process-oriented catchment modelling and multiple-response validationHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 2 2002S. Uhlenbrook Abstract The conceptual rainfall runoff model TAC (tracer-aided catchment model) has been developed based on the experimental results of tracer hydrological investigations at the mountainous Brugga and Zastler basins (40 and 18·4 km2). The model contains a physically realistic description of the runoff generation, which includes seven unit types each with characteristic dominating runoff generation processes. These processes are conceptualized by different linear and non-linear reservoir concepts. The model is applied to a period of 3·2 years on a daily time step with good success. In addition, an extensive model validation procedure was executed. Therefore, additional information (i.e. runoff in subbasins and a neighbouring basin, tracer concentrations and calculated runoff components) was used besides the simulated discharge of the basin investigated. This study shows the potential of tracer data for hydrological modelling. On the one hand, they are good tools to investigate the runoff generation processes. This is the basis for developing more realistic conceptualizations of the runoff generation routine. On the other hand, tracer data can serve as multi-response data to assess and validate a model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Towards integrating tracer studies in conceptual rainfall-runoff models: recent insights from a sub-arctic catchment in the Cairngorm Mountains, ScotlandHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 2 2003Chris Soulsby Abstract Hydrochemical tracers (alkalinity and silica) were used in an end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) of runoff sources in the 10 km2 Allt a' Mharcaidh catchment. A three-component mixing model was used to separate the hydrograph and estimate, to a first approximation, the range of likely contributions of overland flow, shallow subsurface storm flow, and groundwater to the annual hydrograph. A conceptual, catchment-scale rainfall-runoff model (DIY) was also used to separate the annual hydrograph in an equivalent set of flow paths. The two approaches produced independent representations of catchment hydrology that exhibited reasonable agreement. This showed the dominance of overland flow in generating storm runoff and the important role of groundwater inputs throughout the hydrological year. Moreover, DIY was successfully adapted to simulate stream chemistry (alkalinity) at daily time steps. Sensitivity analysis showed that whilst a distinct groundwater source at the catchment scale could be identified, there was considerable uncertainty in differentiating between overland flow and subsurface storm flow in both the EMMA and DIY applications. Nevertheless, the study indicated that the complementary use of tracer analysis in EMMA can increase the confidence in conceptual model structure. However, conclusions are restricted to the specific spatial and temporal scales examined. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||