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Cycle Theory (cycle + theory)
Selected AbstractsActivist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and the Formation of Expectations: Evidence from OECD EconomiesECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2000David Kiefer We examine the explanatory power of a political,business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. The most prominent version, the rational partisan model, incorporates forward-looking expectations. This model can be compared to a competing model based on backward-looking expectations. Alesina and Roubini's recent advocacy of the rational model uses OECD data. Our reconsideration of the same data, updated to 1995, suggests that the adaptive expectations version offers a better explanation than the rational one. [source] Civic Engagement Among Low-Income and Low-Wealth Families: In Their WordsFAMILY RELATIONS, Issue 2 2006Amanda Moore McBride Abstract: Using in-depth interviews, we explored civic engagement that included volunteering through religious organizations, neighboring, involvement in children's activities, and contributing. The sample consisted of 84 low-income, low-wealth families. Findings indicate that although people of limited resources may be engaged, they face substantial challenges to active engagement. Data are suggestive of a modified life cycle theory, a resource or "stakeholding" theory, and institutional theories regarding challenges to engagement. In the context of the study's limitations, implications are discussed for measurement, research, and interventions. [source] Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non-Life Insurance Premiums and Financial MarketsJOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 3 2009Fredj Jawadi The aim of this article is to study the adjustment dynamics of the non-life insurance premium (NLIP) and test its dependence to the financial markets in five countries (Canada, France, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). First, we justify the linkage between the insurance and the financial markets by the underwriting cycle theory and financial models of insurance pricing. Second, we examine the relationship between the NLIP, the interest rate, and the stock price using the recent developments of nonlinear econometrics. We use threshold cointegration models: the switching transition error correction models (STECM). We show that STECM perform better than a linear error correction model (LECM) to reproduce the NLIP dynamics. Our empirical results show that the adjustment of the NLIP in France, Japan, and the United States is rather discontinuous, asymmetrical, and nonlinear. Moreover, we suggest a strong evidence of significant linkages between insurance and financial markets, show two regimes for the NLIP, and find that the NLIP adjustment toward equilibrium is time varying with a convergence speed that varies according to the insurance disequilibrium size. [source] Evaluating online CPD using educational criteria derived from the experiential learning cycleBRITISH JOURNAL OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Andrew Friedman A set of educational evaluation criteria for online continuing professional development (CPD) courses is developed using Kolb's (1984) experiential learning cycle theory. These criteria are used to evaluate five courses provided by online CPD websites. It was found that these online CPD courses neglect parts of the learning cycle. Suggestions for improvements in these areas are given. [source] | ||||||||||