Crime Rates (crime + rate)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


PROPOSITION 8 AND CRIME RATES IN CALIFORNIA: THE CASE OF THE DISAPPEARING DETERRENT

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 3 2006
CHERYL MARIE WEBSTER
Research Summary: In 1999, Daniel Kessler and Steven Levitt published an article that purported to provide support for the marginal deterrent effects of harsher sanctions on levels of crime. Specifically, they concluded that sentence enhancements that came into effect in California in June 1982 as a result of Proposition 8 were responsible for a subsequent drop in serious crime in this state. Our article examines the analyses and findings of this article and suggests that their conclusion of a deterrent impact fails to withstand scrutiny when more complete and more detailed crime data are used and the comparability of "control" groups is carefully examined. In particular, the addition of annual crime levels for all years (versus only the odd-numbered years that Kessler and Levitt examine) calls into question the prima facie support for a deterrent effect presented by Kessler and Levitt. Specifically, it demonstrates not only that the crime drop in California began before, rather than after, the passing into law of the sentence enhancements in 1982 but also that the downward slope did not accelerate after the change in law. Furthermore, the comparability of the two "control" groups with the "treatment" group is challenged, rendering suspect any findings based on these comparisons. Policy Implications: Case studies suggesting that crime decreased after the imposition of harsh sentencing policies are often cited as evidence of marginal general deterrence. As has been demonstrated in other contexts, the question that needs to be asked is "Compared with what?" Kessler and Levitt's (1999) article demonstrates that those interested in sentencing policy need to be sensitive not only to the appropriateness of the comparisons that are made, but also to the choice of data that are presented. [source]


THE EFFECT OF COUNTY-LEVEL PRISON POPULATION GROWTH ON CRIME RATES,

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 2 2006
TOMISLAV V. KOVANDZIC
Research Summary: Prior macro-level studies examining the impact of prison population growth on crime rates have produced widely varying results. Studies using national-level time series data find large impacts of prison growth on crime, whereas those using state panel data find more modest ones. Critics of the former studies maintain that the estimates are implausibly large, arguing that the effects are instead due to analysts' inability to control for potential confounding factors. Conversely, critics of the latter studies argue that they underestimate the total impacts of imprisonment by failing to account for potential free-riding effects. This study uses panel data for 58 Florida counties for 1980 to 2000 to reexamine the link between prison population growth and crime. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence that increases in prison population growth covary with decreases in crime rates. Policy Implications: Our findings suggest that Florida policymakers carefully weigh the costs and benefits of their continued reliance on mass incarceration against the potential costs and benefits of alternatives. If the costs of mass incarceration do not return appreciable benefits, i.e., a reduction in crime, it is time to reconsider our approach to crime and punishment. Other research offers evidence of crime prevention programs operating inside the criminal justice system and in communities that hold promise for reducing crime; our findings indicate that policymakers carefully consider these options as a way to achieve their goals. [source]


The Scary World in Your Living Room and Neighborhood: Using Local Broadcast News, Neighborhood Crime Rates, and Personal Experience to Test Agenda Setting and Cultivation

JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION, Issue 3 2003
Kimberly Gross
This study tested 2 important theories in the history of mass communication research, agenda setting and cultivation, by comparing the effects of watching local television news with direct experience measures of crime on issue salience and fear of victimization. Direct experience was measured in 2 ways: (a) personal crime victimization or victimization of a close friend or family member, and (b) neighborhood crime rates. Using a random digit dial telephone survey of residents of the Washington, DC, metropolitan area, researchers found that local news exposure accounted for an agenda-setting effect but did not cultivate fear of being a victim of crime. By contrast, direct experience had no agenda-setting effect but did predict fear. [source]


MAY ISSUE VERSUS SHALL ISSUE: EXPLAINING THE PATTERN OF CONCEALED-CARRY HANDGUN LAWS, 1960,2001

CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 2 2008
RICHARD S. GROSSMAN
We analyze the timing and pattern of adoption of "shall issue" concealed-carry handgun laws. "Shall issue" laws require the authorities to issue permits to qualified applicants; "may issue" laws give the authorities more latitude to reject applications. We find three factors influence the shift from "may issue" to "shall issue." First, more urban states are less likely to shift to "shall issue," although the size of this effect is quantitatively small. Second, the switch is influenced by the decisions taken by neighboring states. Third, we find evidence that increases in the crime rate accelerated the switch to "shall issue."(JEL K40) [source]


AN ON-THE-JOB SEARCH MODEL OF CRIME, INEQUALITY, AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2004
Kenneth Burdett
We extend simple search models of crime, unemployment, and inequality to incorporate on-the-job search. This is valuable because, although simple models are useful, on-the-job search models are more interesting theoretically and more relevant empirically. We characterize the wage distribution, unemployment rate, and crime rate theoretically, and use quantitative methods to illustrate key results. For example, we find that increasing the unemployment insurance replacement rate from 53 to 65 percent increases unemployment and crime rates from 10 and 2.7 percent to 14 and 5.2 percent. We show multiple equilibria arise for some fairly reasonable parameters; in one case, unemployment can be 6 or 23 percent, and crime 0 or 10 percent, depending on the equilibrium. [source]


Crime Creep: Urban and Suburban Crime on Local TV News

JOURNAL OF URBAN AFFAIRS, Issue 5 2004
Danilo Yanich
Polls also tell us that a significant majority of our citizens get most of their information from local television news and, in general, they believe what they are being shown and told. In short, these newscasts play a pre-eminent role in the social construction of reality and, by extension, in forming the cognitive maps that citizens use to understand their communities. This article examines how the press, particularly local television news, portrays the urban/suburban dimensions of crime in 20 television markets across the US. It is a major extension of an earlier study of two markets. Findings show that local newscasts in the markets consistently focused on suburban crime in spite of the fact that the suburban crime rate was about one-half of the crime rate of urban areas. The newscasts also regularly conveyed the message that the city was a dangerous place. [source]


Exercise Preference Patterns, Resources, and Environment Among Rural Breast Cancer Survivors

THE JOURNAL OF RURAL HEALTH, Issue 4 2009
Laura Q. Rogers MD
ABSTRACT:,Context:Rural breast cancer survivors may be at increased risk for inadequate exercise participation. Purpose: To determine for rural breast cancer survivors: (1) exercise preference "patterns," (2) exercise resources and associated factors, and (3) exercise environment. Methods: A mail survey was sent to rural breast cancer survivors identified through a state cancer registry, and 483 (30%) responded. Findings: The majority (96%) were white, with mean education of 13 (2.5) years and mean 39.0 (21.5) months since diagnosis. Most participants (67%) preferred face-to-face counseling from an exercise specialist (27%) or other individual (40%). A third (31%) preferred home-based exercise with non face-to-face counseling from someone other than an exercise specialist. Participants preferring face-to-face counseling were more apt to prefer supervised exercise (38% vs 9%, P < 0.001) at a health club (32% vs 8%, P < 0.001). Home exercise equipment was reported by 63%, with 97% reporting home telephone and 67% reporting Internet access. Age, education, self-efficacy, treatment status, and exercise behavior were associated with exercise resources. The physical environment was often not conducive to exercise but a low crime rate and high trust in neighbors was reported. Conclusions: Rural health education programs encouraging exercise should offer multiple programming options while considering the physical environment and capitalizing on available resources and beneficial social environmental characteristics. [source]


THE ROLE OF CRIME IN HOUSING UNIT RACIAL/ETHNIC TRANSITION,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2010
JOHN R. HIPP
Previous research frequently has observed a positive cross-sectional relationship between racial/ethnic minorities and crime and generally has posited that this relationship is entirely because of the effect of minorities on neighborhood crime rates. This study posits that at least some of this relationship might be a result of the opposite effect,neighborhood crime increases the number of racial/ethnic minorities. This study employs a unique sample (the American Housing Survey neighborhood sample) focusing on housing units nested in microneighborhoods across three waves from 1985 to 1993. This format allows one to test and find that such racial/ethnic transformation occurs because of the following effects: First, White households that perceive more crime in the neighborhood or that live in microneighborhoods with more commonly perceived crime are more likely to move out of such neighborhoods. Second, Whites are significantly less likely to move into a housing unit in a microneighborhood with more commonly perceived crime. And third, African American and Latino households are more likely to move into such units. [source]


THE LABELING OF CONVICTED FELONS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR RECIDIVISM,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2007
TED CHIRICOS
Florida law allows judges to withhold adjudication of guilt for individuals who have been found guilty of a felony and are being sentenced to probation. Such individuals lose no civil rights and may lawfully assert they had not been convicted of a felony. Labeling theory would predict that the receipt of a felony label could increase the likelihood of recidivism. Reconviction data for 95,919 men and women who were either adjudicated or had adjudication withheld show that those formally labeled are significantly more likely to recidivate in 2 years than those who are not. Labeling effects are stronger for women, whites, and those who reach the age of 30 years without a prior conviction. Second-level indicators of county characteristics (e.g., crime rates or concentrated disadvantage) have no significant effect on the adjudication/recidivism relationship. [source]


THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2005
GARY KLECK
Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro-level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual-level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self-reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link,ignored in previous research,is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty-four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence-based rationales for more punitive crime control policies. [source]


TRAJECTORIES OF CRIME AT PLACES: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF STREET SEGMENTS IN THE CITY OF SEATTLE,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2004
DAVID WEISBURD
Studies of crime at micro places have generally relied on cross-sectional data and reported the distributions of crime statistics over short periods of time. In this paper we use official crime data to examine the distribution of crime at street segments in Seattle, Washington, over a 14-year period. We go beyond prior research in two ways. First, we view crime trends at places over a much longer period than other studies that have examined micro places. Second, we use group-based trajectory analysis to uncover distinctive developmental trends in our data. Our findings support the view that micro places generally have stable concentrations of crime events over time. However, we also find that a relatively small proportion of places belong to groups with steeply rising or declining crime trajectories and that these places are primarily responsible for overall city trends in crime. These findings are particularly important given the more general decline in crime rates observed in Seattle and many other American cities in the 1990s. Our study suggests that the crime drop can be understood not as a general process that occurred across the city landscape but one that was generated in a relatively small group of micro places with strong declining crime trajectories over time. [source]


LOCAL POLITICS AND VIOLENT CRIME IN U.S. CITIES,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 4 2003
THOMAS D. STUCKYArticle first published online: 7 MAR 200
Recent research has begun to examine the effects of politics on crime. However, few studies have considered how local political variation is likely to affect crime. Using insights from urban politics research, this paper develops and tests hypotheses regarding direct and conditional effects of local politics on violent crime in 958 cities in 1991. Results from negative binomial regression analyses show that violent crime rates vary by local political structures and the race of the mayor. In addition, the effects of structural factors such as poverty, unemployment, and female-headed households on violent crime depend on local form of government and the number of unreformed local governmental structures. Implications for systemic social disorganization and institutional anomie theories are discussed. [source]


FEAR, TV NEWS, AND THE REALITY OF CRIME,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2000
TED CHIRICOS
Data from a 1997 survey of 2, 250 Florida residents are used to assess whether and how the reality of crime influences the relationship between watching TV news and fear of crime. Local crime rates, victim experience, and perceived realism of crime news operationalize the reality of crime and are included in ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the TV news and fear of crime relationship. These measures of reality are also used as contexts for disaggregating the analysis. Local and national news are related to fear of crime independent of the effects of the reality of crime and other controls. Local news effects are stronger, especially for people who live in high crime places or have recent victim experience. This contextual pattern of findings is consistent with a conclusion that TV news is most influential when it resonates the experience or crime reality of respondents. [source]


GENDER, STRUCTURAL DISADVANTAGE, AND URBAN CRIME: DO MACROSOCIAL VARIABLES ALSO EXPLAIN FEMALE OFFENDING RATES?,

CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 2 2000
DARRELL STEFFENSMEIER
Building on prior macrosocial-crime research that sought to explain either total crime rates or male rates, this study links female offending rates to structural characteristics of U.S. cities. Specifically, we go beyond previous research by: (1) gender disaggregating the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) index-crime rates (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft) across U.S. cities; (2) focusing explicitly on the effects of structural disadvantage variables on the index-offending rates of females; and (3) comparing the effects of the structural variables on female rates with those for male rates. Alternative measures of structural disadvantage are used to provide more theoretically appropriate indicators, such as gender-specific poverty and joblessness, and controls are included for age structure and structural variables related to offending. The main finding is consistent and powerful: The structural sources of high levels of female offending resemble closely those influencing male offending, but the effects tend to be stronger on male offending rates. [source]


THE CRIMINOGENIC EFFECTS OF IMPRISONMENT: EVIDENCE FROM STATE PANEL DATA, 1974,2002

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 3 2007
LYNNE M. VIERAITIS
Research Summary: The heavy reliance on the use of incarceration in an attempt to address the crime problem has resulted in a dramatic growth in the number of state prisoners over the past 30 years. In recent years, however, a growing concern has developed about the impact that large numbers of offenders released from prison will have on crime rates. Using a state panel data set for 46 states from 1974 to 2002, this study demonstrates that although prison population growth seems to be associated with statistically significant decreases in crime rates, increases in the number of prisoners released from prison seem to be significantly associated with increases in crime. Because we control for changes in prison population levels, we attribute the apparent positive influences on crime that seem to follow prison releases to the criminogenic effects of prison. Policy Implications: Policy makers should continue to serve the public interest by carefully considering policies that are designed to reduce incarceration rates and thus assuage the criminogenic effects of prison. These policies may include changes in sentencing, changes in probation and/or parole practices, or better funding of reentry services prerelease and postrelease. [source]


THE EFFECT OF COUNTY-LEVEL PRISON POPULATION GROWTH ON CRIME RATES,

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 2 2006
TOMISLAV V. KOVANDZIC
Research Summary: Prior macro-level studies examining the impact of prison population growth on crime rates have produced widely varying results. Studies using national-level time series data find large impacts of prison growth on crime, whereas those using state panel data find more modest ones. Critics of the former studies maintain that the estimates are implausibly large, arguing that the effects are instead due to analysts' inability to control for potential confounding factors. Conversely, critics of the latter studies argue that they underestimate the total impacts of imprisonment by failing to account for potential free-riding effects. This study uses panel data for 58 Florida counties for 1980 to 2000 to reexamine the link between prison population growth and crime. Unlike previous studies, we find no evidence that increases in prison population growth covary with decreases in crime rates. Policy Implications: Our findings suggest that Florida policymakers carefully weigh the costs and benefits of their continued reliance on mass incarceration against the potential costs and benefits of alternatives. If the costs of mass incarceration do not return appreciable benefits, i.e., a reduction in crime, it is time to reconsider our approach to crime and punishment. Other research offers evidence of crime prevention programs operating inside the criminal justice system and in communities that hold promise for reducing crime; our findings indicate that policymakers carefully consider these options as a way to achieve their goals. [source]


VIOLENCE AMONG ADOLESCENTS LIVING IN PUBLIC HOUSING: A TWO-SITE ANALYSIS,

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2003
TIMOTHY O. IRELAND
Research Summary: Current knowledge about violence among public housing residents is extremely limited. Much of what we know about violence in and around public housing is derived from analysis of Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data or victimization surveys of public housing residents. The results of these studies suggest that fear of crime among public housing residents is high and that violent offense rates may be higher in areas that contain public housing compared with similar areas without public housing. Yet, "[r]ecorded crime rates (and victimization rates) are an index not of the rate of participation in crime by residents of an area, but of the rate of crime (or victimization) that occurs in an area whether committed by residents or non-residents" (Weatherburn et al., 1999:259). Therefore, neither UCR nor victimization data measurement strategies address whether crime in and around public housing emanates from those who reside in public housing. Additionally, much of this research focuses on atypical public housing,large developments with high-rise buildings located in major metropolitan areas. To complement the existing literature, we compare rates of self-reported crime and violence among adolescents who reside in public housing in Rochester, N.Y., and Pittsburgh, Pa., with adolescents from the same cities who do not live in public housing. In Rochester, property crime and violence participation rates during adolescence and early adulthood among those in public housing are statistically equivalent to participation rates among those not in public housing. In Pittsburgh, living in public housing during late adolescence and early adulthood, particularly in large housing developments,increases the risk for violent offending, but not for property offending. The current study relies on a relatively small number of subjects in public housing at any single point in time and is based on cross-sectional analyses. Even so, there are several important policy implications that can be derived from this study, given that it moves down a path heretofore largely unexplored. Policy Implications: If replicated, our findings indicate that not all public housing is inhabited disproportionately by those involved in crime; that to develop appropriate responses, it is essential to discover if the perpetrators of violence are residents or trespassers; that policy should target reducing violence specifically and not crime in general; that a modification to housing allocation policies that limits, to the extent possible, placing families with children in late adolescence into large developments might reduce violence perpetrated by residents; that limited resources directed at reducing violence among residents should be targeted at those developments or buildings that actually have high rates of participation in violence among the residents; and that best practices may be derived from developments where violence is not a problem. [source]


FUNDING COMMUNITY POLICING TO REDUCE CRIME: HAVE COPS GRANTS MADE A DIFFERENCE?,

CRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2002
JIHONG "SOLOMON" ZHAO
Research Summary: This research examines how funding from the U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS), has affected violent and property crime rates in the United States from 1995 to 1999. Drawing on six years of panel data, we examine the effects of three types of awards made by COPS to 6,100 law enforcement agencies serving more than 145 million citizens. We estimate their impact on crime reduction over time in jurisdictions receiving funding and controlling for baseline levels of crime, socioeconomic characteristics, city size, and population diversity and mobility. Our analyses suggest that COPS hiring and innovative grant programs have resulted in significant reductions in local crime rates in cities with populations greater than 10,000 for both violent and nonviolent offenses. Multivariate analysis shows that in cities with populations greater than 10,000, an increase in one dollar of hiring grant funding per resident contributed to a corresponding decline of 5.26 violent crimes and 21.63 property crimes per 100,000 residents. Similarly, an increase in one dollar of innovative grant funding per resident has contributed to a decline of 12.93 violent crimes and 45.53 property crimes per 100,000 persons. In addition, the findings suggest that COPS grants have had no significant negative effect on violent and property crime rates in cities with less than 10,000 population. Policy Implications: The findings of this study imply that COPS program funding to medium- and large-size cities has been an effective force in reducing both violent and property crime. Federal government grants made directly to law enforcement agencies to hire additional officers and promote innovations may be an effective way to reduce crime on a national scale. [source]


Supply control and harm reduction: lessons from the Australian heroin ,drought'

ADDICTION, Issue 1 2003
Don Weatherburn
ABSTRACT Aims, To examine the effects of supply-side drug law enforcement on the dynamics of the Australian heroin market and the harms associated with heroin. Setting, Around Christmas 2000, heroin users in Sydney and other large capital cities in Australia began reporting sudden and significant reductions in the availability of heroin. The changes, which appear to have been caused at least in part by drug law enforcement, provided a rare opportunity to examine the potential impact of such enforcement on the harm associated with heroin. Design, Data were drawn from a survey of 165 heroin users in South-Western Sydney, Australia; from the Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA) project; from NSW Health records of heroin overdoses; and from the Computerized Operational Policing System (COPS) database. Findings, Heroin price increased, while purity, consumption and expenditure on the drug decreased as a result of the shortage. The fall in overall heroin use was accompanied by a significant reduction in the rate of overdose in NSW. However, the health benefits associated with the fall in overdose may have been offset by an increase in the use of other drugs (mainly cocaine) since the onset of the heroin shortage. There does not appear to have been any enduring impact on crime rates as a result of the heroin ,drought'. Conclusion, Supply control has an important part to play in harm reduction; however, proponents of supply-side drug law enforcement need to be mindful of the unintended adverse consequences that might flow from successfully disrupting the market for a particular illegal drug. [source]


The Space of Local Control in the Devolution of us Public Housing Policy

GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES B: HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2000
Janet L. Smith
Sweeping changes in national policy aim to radically transform public housing in the United States. The goal is to reduce social isolation and increase opportunities for low income tenants by demolishing ,worst case' housing, most of which is modern, high-rise buildings with high vacancy and crime rates, and replacing it with ,mixed-income' developments and tenant based assistance to disperse current public housing families. Transformation relies on the national government devolving more decision-making power to local government and public housing authorities. The assumption here is that decentralizing the responsibility for public housing will yield more effective results and be more efficient. This paper explores the problematic nature of decentralization as it has been conceptualized in policy discourse, focusing on the underlying assumptions about the benefits of increasing local control in the implementation of national policy. As this paper describes, this conceived space of local control does not take into account the spatial features that have historically shaped where and how low income families live in the US, including racism and classism and a general aversion by the market to produce affordable rental units and mixed-income developments. As a result, this conceived space of local control places the burden on low income residents to make transformation a success. To make this case, Wittgenstein's (1958) post-structural view of language is combined with Lefebvre's view of space to provide a framework in which to examine US housing policy discourse as a ,space producing' activity. The Chicago Housing Authority's Plan for Transformation is used to illustrate how local efforts to transform public housing reproduce a functional space for local control that is incapable of generating many of the proposed benefits of decentralization for public housing tenants. [source]


Growth and Change in U.S. Cities and Suburbs

GROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 3 2001
Robin M. Leichenko
Differential rates of growth and decentralization are processes that characterized U.S. urban areas over the past three decades. This paper examines the determinants of growth in cities and suburbs during the 1970s, the 1980s, and the 1990s. The modeling approach adopted in the study allows for simultaneity between population and employment, and between cities and suburbs, while also taking into account a range of other explanatory factors. Results indicate that population and employment growth in cities tend to be jointly determined, but that growth of employment in the suburbs tends to drive growth of suburban population. Results also suggest that suburban and city growth are interrelated, but that the nature of these interrelationships varies over time: suburban growth promoted city growth during the 1970s and 1980s, while city and suburban growth were jointly determined during the 1990s. Other factors that consistently explain variation in city growth include demographics, population density, crime rates, and income inequality. Factors consistently explaining suburban growth include regional location and climate. [source]


AN ON-THE-JOB SEARCH MODEL OF CRIME, INEQUALITY, AND UNEMPLOYMENT*

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2004
Kenneth Burdett
We extend simple search models of crime, unemployment, and inequality to incorporate on-the-job search. This is valuable because, although simple models are useful, on-the-job search models are more interesting theoretically and more relevant empirically. We characterize the wage distribution, unemployment rate, and crime rate theoretically, and use quantitative methods to illustrate key results. For example, we find that increasing the unemployment insurance replacement rate from 53 to 65 percent increases unemployment and crime rates from 10 and 2.7 percent to 14 and 5.2 percent. We show multiple equilibria arise for some fairly reasonable parameters; in one case, unemployment can be 6 or 23 percent, and crime 0 or 10 percent, depending on the equilibrium. [source]


WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECLINE IN CRIME?*

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2004
mrohoro
In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century. [source]


The Scary World in Your Living Room and Neighborhood: Using Local Broadcast News, Neighborhood Crime Rates, and Personal Experience to Test Agenda Setting and Cultivation

JOURNAL OF COMMUNICATION, Issue 3 2003
Kimberly Gross
This study tested 2 important theories in the history of mass communication research, agenda setting and cultivation, by comparing the effects of watching local television news with direct experience measures of crime on issue salience and fear of victimization. Direct experience was measured in 2 ways: (a) personal crime victimization or victimization of a close friend or family member, and (b) neighborhood crime rates. Using a random digit dial telephone survey of residents of the Washington, DC, metropolitan area, researchers found that local news exposure accounted for an agenda-setting effect but did not cultivate fear of being a victim of crime. By contrast, direct experience had no agenda-setting effect but did predict fear. [source]


Rational Choice and Developmental Influences on Recidivism Among Adolescent Felony Offenders

JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL LEGAL STUDIES, Issue 4 2007
Jeffrey Fagan
Recent case law and social science both have claimed that the developmental limitations of adolescents affect their capacity for control and decision making with respect to crime, diminishing their culpability and reducing their exposure to punishment. Social science has focused on two concurrent adolescent developmental influences: the internalization of legal rules and norms that regulate social and antisocial behaviors, and the development of rationality to frame behavioral choices and decisions. The interaction of these two developmental processes, and the identification of one domain of socialization and development as the primary source of motivation or restraint in adolescence, is the focus of this article. Accordingly, we combine rational choice and legal socialization frameworks into an integrated, developmental model of criminality. We test this framework in a large sample of adolescent felony offenders who have been interviewed at six-month intervals for two years. Using hierarchical and growth curve models, we show that both legal socialization and rational choice factors influence patterns of criminal offending over time. When punishment risks and costs are salient, crime rates are lower over time. We show that procedural justice is a significant antecedent of legal socialization, but not of rational choice. We also show that both mental health and developmental maturity moderate the effects of perceived crime risks and costs on criminal offending. [source]


Spatial integration at multiple scales: rice markets in Madagascar

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2009
Christine Moser
Market integration; Prices; Rice Abstract The dramatic increase in the price of rice and other commodities over the past year has generated new interest in how these markets work and how they can be improved. This article uses an exceptionally rich data set to test the extent to which markets in Madagascar are integrated across space at different scales of analysis and to explain some of the factors that limit spatial arbitrage and price equalization within a single country. We use rice price data across four quarters of 2000,2001 along with data on transportation costs and infrastructure availability for nearly 1,400 communes in Madagascar to examine the extent of market integration at three different spatial scales,subregional, regional, and national,and to determine whether non-integration is due to high transfer costs or lack of competition. The results indicate that markets are fairly well integrated at the subregional level and that factors such as high crime rates, remoteness, and lack of information are among the factors limiting competition. [source]


Crime and Labour Market Opportunities in Italy (1993,2002)

LABOUR, Issue 4 2006
Paolo Buonanno
Using regional data over the period 1993,2002, we study the impact of wages and unemployment on different types of crime. To mitigate omitted variables bias, we control extensively for demographic and socio-economic variables. Empirical results suggest that unemployment has a large and positive effect on crime rates in southern regions. Our results are robust to model specification, endogeneity, changes in the classification of crimes, and finally, to alternative definitions of unemployment. [source]


Is There a Natural Rate of Crime?

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Studies in the economics of crime literature have reached mixed conclusions on the deterrence hypothesis. One explanation that has been offered for the failure to find evidence of a deterrent effect in the long run is the natural rate of crime. This article applies univariate unit root tests to crime series for the United Kingdom and United States and panel unit roots to crime rates for a panel of G7 countries to examine whether there is a natural rate of crime. Our main finding is that when we allow for two structural breaks in the univariate unit root test and a structural break in the panel data unit root test, there is strong evidence of a natural rate of crime. The policy implications of our findings is that governments should focus on altering the economic and social structural profile that determines crime in the long run rather than increasing expenditure on law enforcement that will at best reduce crime rates in the short run. [source]


The crime drop in comparative perspective: the impact of the economy and imprisonment on American and European burglary rates

THE BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY, Issue 3 2009
Richard Rosenfeld
Abstract Influential statements on recent American crime reductions maintain that the crime drop was confined to the USA. Yet other research has revealed comparable crime decreases in Europe. We suggest that the USA and European crime declines occurred in tandem because they were both brought about by upturns in the economy. In light of US research showing crime reductions resulting from growth in imprisonment, we also examine the possibility that rising imprisonment rates reduced European crime rates. We test these hypotheses in a pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of burglary rates in the USA and nine European nations between 1993 and 2006. The results indicate that burglary declines in the US and Europe were associated with rising consumer confidence. By contrast, imprisonment appears to be significantly related to burglary rates only after unusual policy interventions, such as Italy's 2006 clemency measure that dramatically reduced the size of its prison population. We interpret these findings as reflecting the structural similarity and economic integration of the world's developed nations and the uneven convergence in US and European punishment policies. [source]