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Convective Storms (convective + storm)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Humanities and Social Sciences57%
Earth and Environmental Science42%

Selected Abstracts

Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 1 2008
David L. Arnold
Small-scale (2,20 km) circulations, termed ,severe deep moist convective storms', account for a disproportionate share of the world's insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmospheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowledge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar systems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. Once initiated, the evolution of deep convective storms is monitored by satellite and radar. Mitigation of the hazards posed by severe deep moist convective storms is a three-step process, involving preparedness, response, and recovery. Preparedness implies that risks have been identified and organizations and individuals are familiar with a response plan. Response necessitates that potential events are identified before they occur and the developing threat is communicated to the public. Recovery is a function of the awareness of local, regional, and even national governments to the character and magnitude of potential events in specific locations, and whether or not long-term operational plans are in place at the time of disasters. [source]

Documentary Evidence of an Economic Character as a Source for the Study of Meteorological and Hydrological Extremes and their Impacts on Human Activities

GEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2006
Rudolf Brázdil
Abstract This paper deals with documentary evidence of an economic character as a proxy for direct study of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Taxation records and reports of those who administrated domains and estates are described with respect to information about meteorological and hydrological extremes. Based on data from eight domains or estates from Moravia (in the Czech Republic), frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were developed for the period 1650,1849. One example of disastrous weather, which took place on 10 August 1694 in the Pern,tejn domain, is used to demonstrate the potential for such studies of the intensity of extremes and their impact on human activities. The importance of economic evidence in the instrumental period is shown through tax rebate data contingent upon hailstorm damage in Moravia (1896,1906). The benefits of employing documentary economic evidence for historical climatology and the study of the impact of meteorological and hydrological extremes on human activities are discussed. [source]

Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 1 2008
David L. Arnold
Small-scale (2,20 km) circulations, termed ,severe deep moist convective storms', account for a disproportionate share of the world's insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmospheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowledge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar systems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. Once initiated, the evolution of deep convective storms is monitored by satellite and radar. Mitigation of the hazards posed by severe deep moist convective storms is a three-step process, involving preparedness, response, and recovery. Preparedness implies that risks have been identified and organizations and individuals are familiar with a response plan. Response necessitates that potential events are identified before they occur and the developing threat is communicated to the public. Recovery is a function of the awareness of local, regional, and even national governments to the character and magnitude of potential events in specific locations, and whether or not long-term operational plans are in place at the time of disasters. [source]

A study of twentieth-century extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom with implications for forecasting

METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2004
William H. Hand
Rainfall events in the United Kingdom during the twentieth century have been surveyed and those identified as extreme by the Flood Studies Report (1975) standards have been examined for common features. Events of duration up to 60 hours were considered in order to investigate those that could cause flash floods. More than half of the 50 events identified were short-period convective storms. The rainfall events were classified by meteorological situation, location and season, allowing the identification of conditions under which extreme rainfall occurred. Suitable conditions for extreme rainfall were split into three categories: orographic, frontal and convective. The frontal and convective classes were then divided into two sub-classes according to whether significant embedded instability was present in the frontal cases and the nature of the convection in the convective cases. The study revealed a lot of commonality between the cases. For example, all of the orographic events occurred in winter in moist west to southwest airflows, and 80% of the frontal cases involved a slow-moving depression to the south or east and also a slow moving frontal system. A conceptual airflow diagram has been developed for some of the frontal cases. The key result, however, was the discovery that each category of meteorological situation occupied a unique space in a rainfall amount versus duration diagram for each extreme event. This offers exciting opportunities for applying the results of this study and a framework for studying future events. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]

Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 643 2009
J. M. Chagnon
Abstract The structure and dynamics of potential vorticity (PV) anomalies generated by convective storms is investigated both theoretically and in a numerical model case study. Linear theory suggests that if the storm-induced heating is on a sufficiently small scale (relative to the Rossby radius of deformation), and the environment contains moderate vertical wind shear (of order 1 m s,1 km,1), then the dominant mode of a diabatically generated PV anomaly is a horizontally oriented dipole. The horizontal dipoles are typically of ,,(10 PVU), compared with the ,,(1 PVU) vertical dipoles that have been studied extensively throughout the literature. Furthermore, the horizontal PV dipoles are realized almost entirely as relative vorticity anomalies (on a time-scale of the order of tens of minutes after the heating has been turned on). The analysis of horizontal PV dipoles offers a new perspective on the vorticity dynamics of individual convective cells, implying that moist processes play a role in the maintenance of vertical vorticity in the convective storm environment. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Variable cirrus shading during CSIP IOP 5.

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 628 2007
I: Effects on the initiation of convection
Abstract Observations from the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) show that on 29 June 2005 (Intensive Observation Period 5) cirrus patches left over from previous thunderstorms reduced surface sensible and latent heat fluxes in the CSIP area. Large-eddy model (LEM) simulations, using moving positive surface-flux anomalies, show that we expect the observed moving gaps in the cirrus cover to significantly aid convective initiation. In these simulations, the timing of the CI is largely determined by the amount of heat added to the boundary layer, but weak convergence at the rear edge of the moving anomalies is also significant. Meteosat and rain-radar data are combined to determine the position of convective initiation for all 25 trackable showers in the CSIP area. The results are consistent with the LEM simulations, with showers initiating at the rear edge of gaps, at the leading edge of the anvil, or in clear skies, in all but one of the cases. The initiation occurs in relatively clear skies in all but two of the cases, with the exceptions probably linked to orographic effects. For numerical weather prediction, the case highlights the importance of predicting and assimilating cloud cover. The results show that in the absence of stronger forcings, weak forcings, such as from the observed cirrus shading, can determine the precise location and timing of convective initiation. In such cases, since the effects of shading by cirrus anvils from previous convective storms are relatively unpredictable, this is expected to limit the predictability of the convective initiation. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Severe Deep Moist Convective Storms: Forecasting and Mitigation

GEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 1 2008
David L. Arnold
Small-scale (2,20 km) circulations, termed ,severe deep moist convective storms', account for a disproportionate share of the world's insured weather-related losses. Spatial frequency maximums of severe convective events occur in South Africa, India, Mexico, the Caucasus, and Great Plains/Prairies region of North America, where the maximum tornado frequency occurs east of the Rocky Mountains. Interest in forecasting severe deep moist convective systems, especially those that produce tornadoes, dates to 1884 when tornado alerts were first provided in the central United States. Modern thunderstorm and tornado forecasting relies on technology and theory, but in the post-World War II era interest in forecasting has also been driven by public pressure. The forecasting process begins with a diagnostic analysis, in which the forecaster considers the potential of the atmospheric environment to produce severe convective storms (which requires knowledge of the evolving kinematic and thermodynamic fields, and the character of the land surface over which the storms will pass), and the likely character of the storms that may develop. Improvements in forecasting will likely depend on technological advancements, such as the development of phased-array radar systems and finer resolution numerical weather prediction models. Once initiated, the evolution of deep convective storms is monitored by satellite and radar. Mitigation of the hazards posed by severe deep moist convective storms is a three-step process, involving preparedness, response, and recovery. Preparedness implies that risks have been identified and organizations and individuals are familiar with a response plan. Response necessitates that potential events are identified before they occur and the developing threat is communicated to the public. Recovery is a function of the awareness of local, regional, and even national governments to the character and magnitude of potential events in specific locations, and whether or not long-term operational plans are in place at the time of disasters. [source]