Contagion Effects (contagion + effects)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2002
Ike Mathur
The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars. [source]


Absence of Iatrogenic or Contagion Effects in Adolescent Group Therapy: Findings from the Cannabis Youth Treatment (CYT) Study

THE AMERICAN JOURNAL ON ADDICTIONS, Issue 2006
Joseph A. Burleson PhD
Though widely used and presumed effective in practice, some scholars (Dishion et al., 1999) have raised the concern that group therapy for adolescents with substance use disorder and a range of deviancy has the potential for causing iatrogenic effects (e.g., increased substance use, behavior and legal problems) for those with low deviancy. Using data from 400 youth in the largest adolescent treatment experiment conducted to date (Dennis et al., 2004), this study shows that group composition in terms of conduct disorder symptoms is not associated with worse substance use, psychological, environmental or legal treatment outcomes. The results actually indicated that there was a slight advantage for youth with high conduct disorder to be included in the groups with less symptoms. The results appear consistent with recent meta-analyses of delinquency studies (Lipsey, 2006) which have found no evidence of iatrogenic effects. These results support the common clinical belief that group therapy for youths with substance use disorders is a safe and effective treatment modality. [source]


Contagion Effects and Ethnic Contribution Networks

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 2 2003
Wendy K. Tam Cho
Many political behavior theories explicitly incorporate the idea that context matters in politics. Nonetheless, the concept of spatial dependence,in particular, that behavior in geographic units is somehow related to and affected by behavior in neighboring areas,is not extensively explored. The study of campaign finance is no exception. Research in this area concentrates on the attributes of the individual donor, leaving context underexplored. Concepts such as contribution networks, for instance, are not rigorously tested. This article reexamines the impact of conventional socio-demographic covariates on campaign donation behavior by ethnic contributors and explicitly models spatial effects. The spatial analysis reveals that patterns of campaign donations are geographically clustered (exhibiting both spatial dependence, implying a neighborhood effect, and spatial heterogeneity, implying a regional effect), and that this clustering cannot be explained completely by socio-economic and demographic variables. While socio-demographic characteristics are important components of the dynamic underlying campaign contributions, there is also evidence consistent with a contagion effect whereby ethnic contribution networks are fueling funds to candidate coffers. [source]


Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2002
Ike Mathur
The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars. [source]


Is there a causal link between currency and debt crises?

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2006
Axel Dreher
Abstract Though currency and debt crises quite often occur simultaneously, the links between these two types of crises are not well understood. We review how currency and debt crises could be related due to common causes, contagion effects from one crisis to the other, and complementary budget financing aspects. In an empirical analysis based on a panel of 80 countries over the period 1975,2000, we first investigate the determinants of each crisis separately. Then we estimate links between both crises employing instrumental variables techniques. We find that, while there is a negative lagged influence of currency crises on debt crises, currency crises significantly increase the risk of contemporaneous debt crises and vice versa. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


Contagion in banking due to BCCI's failure: evidence from national equity indices

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2004
Angelos Kanas
Abstract We examine whether the failure of the multinational banking group BCCI caused contagion effects in the banking sectors of four countries where BCCI had established operations, namely the UK, the US, Spain and Switzerland. We find evidence of contagion effects in the UK and Spain which appear to have registered several months before the eventual closure announcement. There is no evidence of contagion effects in the US and Switzerland. Our results have implications for the stability of the European banking sector, as banks licensed anywhere in the EU will be able to set up branches in other EU countries without needing to obtain further authorization. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]


INDUSTRY EFFECTS OF ANALYST STOCK REVISIONS

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 2 2006
Aigbe Akhigbe
Abstract We examine the industry valuation effects of analyst stock revisions and identify the variables that influence these effects. Our results show that industry rivals experience significant abnormal returns in response to revision announcements. Although the mean stock price response suggests contagion effects, there is also evidence of significant competitive effects. The valuation effects are influenced by the magnitude of the rated firm's announcement return, along with analyst-specific and industry-specific characteristics. However, the sensitivity of the valuation effects to these characteristics is conditioned on whether the industry effects are contagious or competitive. [source]


Looking for contagion in currency futures markets

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 10 2003
Chu-Sheng Tai
This article tests whether there are pure contagion effects in both conditional means and volatilities among British pound, Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc futures markets during the 1992 ERM crisis. A conditional version of international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to control for economic fundamentals. The empirical results indicate that overall there are no mean spillovers among those futures markets, but they are detected during the crisis period. That is, past return shocks originating in any one of the four markets have no impact on the other three markets during the entire sample period, suggesting that these markets are weak-form efficient. However, this weak-form market efficiency fails to hold during the market turmoil, especially for British pound and Swiss franc, and the sources of contagion-in-mean effects are mainly due to the return shocks originating in three European currency futures markets. As for the contagion-in-volatility, it is detected for British pound only because its conditional volatility is influenced by the negative volatility shocks from Canadian dollar, Deutsche mark, and Swiss franc, with Deutsche mark playing the dominant role in generating these shocks. JEL Classifications: C32; F31; G12. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:957,988, 2003 [source]


Contagion or Real Linkages?

CHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 4 2007
Some Evidence from China's Emerging Parallel Markets
F3; G15; P33 Abstract This paper empirically tests the existence of contagion using data on China's five parallel markets with different entry barriers for foreign capital. Taking the 1997 stock market crash as our experiment and using data on A, B and H shares, red chips and American depository receipts, the present paper tests whether these China-backed market returns respond differently to foreign shocks during the pre-1997 and post-1997 crash period. Evidence suggests that the contagion effects are stronger in markets with fewer entry barriers. An important implication of our findings is that countries vulnerable to contagion could be justified to impose some limits on capital flows. [source]