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Commodity Futures Markets (commodity + future_market)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	100%

Selected Abstracts

Out-of-sample Hedge Performances for Risk Management in China Commodity Futures Markets,

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2009
Sang-Kuck Chung
C13; C32; G13 We consider a new time-series model that describes long memory and asymmetries simultaneously under the dynamic conditional correlation specification, and that can be used to assess an extensive evaluation of out-of-sample hedging performances using aluminum and fuel oil futures markets traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Upon fitting it to the spot and futures returns of aluminum and fuel oil markets, it is found that a parsimonious version of the model captures the salient features of the data rather well. The empirical results suggest that separating the effects of positive and negative basis on the market volatility, and the correlation between two markets as well as jointly incorporating the long memory effect of the basis on market returns not only provides better descriptions of the dynamic behaviors of commodity prices, but also plays a statistically significant role in determining dynamic hedging strategies. [source]

A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices?

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2010
Cross-sectional evidence
Commitment's of traders; Index funds; Commodity futures markets Abstract Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in the level of commodity prices. Some researchers have argued that these market participants,through their impact on market prices,may have inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result,if substantiated,would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The empirical results provide scant evidence that long-only index funds impact returns across commodity futures markets. [source]

An examination of momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 3 2007
Qian Shen
Commodity futures and equity markets differ in several important respects. Nevertheless, it was found that momentum profits in commodities are highly significant for holding periods as long as 9 months, and returns to momentum strategies are roughly equal in magnitude to those that have been reported in stocks. The profits documented are too large to be subsumed by transactions costs. Although the momentum strategies appear to be quite risky, their profitability cannot be fully accounted for in the context of a market factor model. Further, it is shown that momentum profits eventually reverse if positions are maintained long enough after portfolio formation. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:227,256, 2007 [source]

The response of volume and returns to the information shocks in China's commodity futures markets

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 9 2005
Gongmeng Chen
This study investigates the response of returns and volume to different information shocks in China's commodity futures markets using bivariate moving average representation (BMAR) and bivariate vector autoregression (BVAR) methodologies. Consistent with the conclusions from stock market studies that have used these methodologies, it is found that the informational/permanent components are the dominant components for returns movements, and the noninformational/transitory components are the dominant components for trading volume. It is also found that the market response of copper futures improved during the sample period, and the market responses of actively traded futures (copper and soybeans) are better than those of the less actively traded futures (aluminum and wheat). © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:893,916, 2005 [source]

Price relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 5 2005
Qingfeng "Wilson" Liu
This paper examines the relations among hog, corn, and soybean meal futures price series using the Perron (1997) unit root test and autoregressive multivariate cointegration models. Accounting for the significant seasonal factors and time trends, we find the three series are cointegrated with one single cointegrating vector, whose coefficients are comparable to the ratios used by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Ex-post trading simulations that utilize the cointegration results generate significant profits, suggesting that market expectations may not fully incorporate the mean-reverting tendencies as indicated by the cointegration relations, and that inefficiency exists in these three commodity futures markets. Results from our ex-ante trading simulations that employ the USDA ratios also provide some evidence in this regard. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:491,514, 2005 [source]

Efficiency tests of agricultural commodity futures markets in China

AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2005
H. Holly Wang
The efficiency of the Chinese wheat and soybean futures markets is studied. Formal statistical tests were conducted based on Johansen's cointegration approach for three different cash markets and six different futures forecasting horizons ranging from 1 week to 4 months. The results suggest a long-term equilibrium relationship between the futures price and cash price for soybeans and weak short-term efficiency in the soybean futures market. The futures market for wheat is inefficient, which may be caused by over-speculation and government intervention. [source]