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Climatic Trends (climatic + trend)
Selected AbstractsClimatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland CaliforniaGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2003MATTHEW L. FORISTER Abstract Many studies, largely from cool-temperate latitudes, have investigated the relationship between the timing of biological events and changes in climatic conditions during the past few decades. Relatively little is known about the response of plants and animals at lower latitudes. Here we show that the average first spring flight of 23 butterfly species in the Central Valley of California has advanced to an earlier date over the past 31 years. Among the species that have appeared significantly earlier, the average shift is 24 days. Climatic conditions (largely winter temperature and precipitation) are found to explain a large part of the variation in changing date of first flight. These results suggest a strong ecological influence of changing climatic conditions on a suite of animals from a mid-latitude, Mediterranean climate. [source] Palaeomonsoon variability in the southern fringe of the Badain Jaran Desert, China, since 130 ka BPEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 3 2006Quanzhou Gao Abstract Taking the Chagelebulu Stratigraphic Profile as a typical example, a comprehensive study has been conducted to elucidate the palaeoclimatic and geomorphic evolution patterns in the southern fringe of the Badain Jaran Desert, which were found to be complex and polycyclic in the past 130 ka. However, the fluctuating magnitude is not as remarkable as that in the eastern China sandy region. The shift in climate from interglacial to glacial and the uplift process of the Qinghai,Xizang Plateau are the two leading forces driving the evolution of the climate and desert landforms in this area. Seventeen cycles of cold, dry and warm, humid climatic stages were recognized in the Upper Pleistocene Series of the profile. The sharp uplift of the Qinghai,Xizang Plateau superimposed a cool and arid climatic trend in this area. As a result of the climatic changes, the desert in this area has undergone multiple stages of expansion and contraction since 130 ka bp. The middle Holocene Epoch and the early stage of the Late Pleistocene Period were the main periods when the sand dunes became stabilized, and the early and late phases of the Holocene Epoch and late phase of the Pleistocene Epoch were the main periods when the previously stabilized sand dunes became mobile. The late phase of the Pleistocene Epoch was the most mobile stage, when the aeolian sand activities formed the essential geomorphic pattern of the Badain Jaran Desert. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Thermal adaptation of Arctic charr: experimental studies of growth in eleven charr populations from Sweden, Norway and BritainFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2005S. LARSSON Summary 1. Experimental growth data for Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus L.), all fed on excess rations, from 11 European watercourses between 54 and 70°N were analysed and fitted to a new general growth model for fish. The model was validated by comparing its predictions with the growth rate of charr in the wild. 2. Growth performance varied among populations, mainly because of variation in the maximum growth potential, whereas the thermal response curves were similar. The estimated lower and upper temperatures for growth varied between ,1.7 to 5.3 and 20.8,23.2 °C, respectively, while maximum growth occurred between 14.4 and 17.2 °C. 3. There was no geographical or climatic trend in growth performance among populations and therefore no indication of thermal adaptation. The growth potential of charr from different populations correlated positively with fish body length at maturity and maximum weight in the wild. Charr from populations including large piscivorous fish had higher growth rates under standardised conditions than those from populations feeding on zoobenthos or zooplankton. Therefore, the adaptive variation in growth potential was related to life-history characteristics and diet, rather than to thermal conditions. [source] Spatio-temporal climatic change of rainfall in East Java IndonesiaINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Edvin Aldrian Abstract Spatial and temporal rainfall analysis of the Brantas Catchment Area (DAS Brantas), East Java, from 1955 to 2005 based on 40 rainfall stations with monthly rainfall data derived from daily rainfall data has been performed. To identify the climatic trend and annual changes in the area over the last five decades, we use the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method based on multivariate statistics, followed by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) method for the power density spectrum analysis, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and the wavelet transform method. With EOF, we found the monsoonal rainfall pattern as the most dominant in this area, which explains about 72% of all variances. Without the annual signal, the leading EOF shows significant ENSO-modulated inter-annual and seasonal variabilities, especially during the second transitional period. We found a common and significant negative trend of accumulated rainfall and a negative trend of the monsoonal strength and dominance. This finding leads to changes in the annual pattern, which are increase in the ratio of rainfall during the wet season and increase of the dry spell period or the imbalance of the annual pattern. The increased ratio of the rainfall in the wet season has led to an increased threat of drought in the dry season and extreme weather in the wet season in recent decades. The role of the orographic effect had been detected from the decadal pattern, in which the high-altitude areas have greater rainfall amount all year round. From the decadal isohyets in December/January/February (DJF) and June/July/August (JJA), the rainfall amount decreased significantly during the last five decades as shown by a persistent increase of areas with low rainfall amount. By comparing the time series of rainfall data in two locations, the mountain and coastal areas, we discovered that the dry periods have increased, mainly in the low altitude area. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya: A Blinking FutureACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 5 2009Julius M. HUHO Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8 mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ,2.54 and ,6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world. [source] Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistenceDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 6 2008Cameron L. Aldridge ABSTRACT Aim, Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub-steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad-scale, long-term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location, Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods, Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage-grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results, Greater sage-grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage-grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage-grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions, Spatial patterns in greater sage-grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity. [source] Environmental ,loopholes' and fish population dynamics: comparative pattern recognition with focus on El Niño effects in the PacificFISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 4-5 2003Andrew Bakun Abstract A process of comparative pattern recognition is undertaken for the purpose of garnering insights into the mechanisms underlying some currently puzzling conundrums in fishery resource ecology. These include (a) out-of-phase oscillations between anchovies and sardines, (b) the remarkable fish productivity of the Peru,Humboldt marine ecosystem, (c) sardine population increases in the eastern Pacific during El Niños, (d) basin-wide synchronies in large-amplitude abundance variations, (e) characteristic spawning of large tuna species in poorly productive areas, (f) contrary trends in Pacific tropical tuna abundance during the 1970s and early 1980s. It is found that each of the items appears to become less enigmatic when the conceptual focus shifts from conventional trophodynamics to the idea that ,loopholes' in the fields of biological controls (i.e. of predators of early life stages), produced by poor ocean productivity or by disruptive environmental perturbations, may in fact lead to remarkable reproductive success. Implications include the following: (1) El Niño, rather than being an unmitigated disaster for Peruvian fisheries, may in the long run be a prime reason for the remarkable fishery productivity of the Peru,Humboldt large marine ecosystem. (2) Globally-teleconnected climatic trends or shifts might produce globally-coherent population expansions even when local environmental expressions may be quite different. (3) It may be unreasonable to expect any management methodologies to be able to keep the fish populations of highly climatically-perturbed systems such as the Peruvian LME always at stable high levels; an alternative approach, for example, might be to take optimal advantage of the transient opportunities afforded by the high fish productivity of such inherently erratic systems. [source] Trends in water quality and discharge confound long-term warming effects on river macroinvertebratesFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2009ISABELLE DURANCE Summary 1.,Climate-change effects on rivers and streams might interact with other pressures, such as pollution, but long-term investigations are scarce. We assessed trends among macroinvertebrates in 50 southern English streams in relation to temperature, discharge and water quality over 18 years (1989,2007). 2.,Long-term records, coupled with estimates from inter-site calibrations of 3,4 years, showed that mean stream temperatures in the study area had increased by 2.1,2.9 °C in winter and 1.1,1.5 °C in summer over the 26 year period from 1980 to 2006, with trends in winter strongest. 3.,While invertebrate assemblages in surface-fed streams were constant, those in chalk-streams changed significantly during 1989,2007. Invertebrate trends correlated significantly with temperature, but effects were spurious because (i) assemblages gained taxa typical of faster flow or well-oxygenated conditions, contrary to expectations from warming; (ii) more invertebrate families increased in abundance than declined and (iii) concomitant changes in water quality (e.g. declining orthophosphate, ammonia and biochemical oxygen demand), or at some sites changes in discharge, explained more variation in invertebrate abundance and composition than did temperature. 4.,These patterns were reconfirmed in both group- and site-specific analyses. 5.,We conclude that recent winter-biased warming in southern English chalk-streams has been insufficient to affect invertebrates negatively over a period of improving water quality. This implies that positive management can minimize some climate-change impacts on stream ecosystems. Chalk-stream invertebrates are sensitive, nevertheless, to variations in discharge, and detectable changes could occur if climate change alters flow pattern. 6.,Because climatic trends now characterize many inter-annual time-series, we caution other investigators to examine whether putative effects on ecological systems are real or linked spuriously to other causes of change. [source] Short-term climatic trends affect the temporal variability of macroinvertebrates in California ,Mediterranean' streamsFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2007LEAH A. BÊCHE Summary 1. Long-term studies in ecology are essential for understanding natural variability and in interpreting responses to disturbances and human perturbations. We assessed the long-term variability, stability and persistence of macroinvertebrate communities by analysing data from three regions in northern California with a mediterranean-climate. During the study period, precipitation either increased or decreased, and extreme drought events occurred in each region. 2. Temporal trends in precipitation resulted in shifts from ,dry-year' communities, dominated by taxa adapted to no or low flow, to ,wet-year' communities dominated by taxa adapted to high flows. The abundance of chironomid larvae was an important driver of community change. Directional change in community composition occurred at all sites and was correlated with precipitation patterns, with more dramatic change occurring in smaller streams. 3. All communities exhibited high to moderate persistence (defined by the presence/absence of a species) and moderate to low stability (defined by changes in abundance) over the study period. Stability and persistence were correlated with climatic variation (precipitation and El Niño Southern Oscillation) and stream size. Stability and persistence increased as a result of drought in small streams (first-order) but decreased in larger streams (second- and third-order). Communities from the dry season were less stable than those from the wet-season. 4. This study demonstrates the importance of long-term studies in capturing the effects of and recovery from rare events, such as the prolonged and extreme droughts considered here. [source] Decadal change in wetland,woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trendsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2010DAVID A. KEITH Abstract Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960,2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961,1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co-relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th-century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems. [source] Patterns of variability in the satellite microwave sounding unit temperature record: comparison with surface and reanalysis dataINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2003Giovanni Sturaro Abstract Principal component analysis is applied to global temperature records to study the differences in the patterns of variability between surface and troposphere. Surface, Microwave Sounding Unit (lower troposphere, channel 2 and channel 4) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis thickness data are studied in the common period 1979,2000. The patterns of variability are classified into geographical regions and compared. The series of their time coefficients are correlated to assess the existence of common and significant climate-change signals in the form of climatic trends. The objective is to identify the physical processes determining the records' variations and the differences between the surface and the satellite records that might be related to the discrepancy in their globally averaged trend. Major differences were found in the Tropics, where the surface warming is not paralleled in any other record. The surface record has two major patterns over the Tropics, one of which is connected to El Niño,southern oscillation. Satellite variability is instead described by only one pattern, most probably deriving from the merging of the two distinct patterns found for the near-surface records. In the eastern Antarctic a higher troposphere and lower stratosphere negative trend is found connected to ozone depletion. This signal prevails in the satellite record, despite evidence that it is confined only above 500 hPa. A pattern over Siberia is linked to the ,Euro-Siberian oscillation', i.e. the change in the pressure field determining the tracks of the Atlantic storms over the area Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Disaggregating climatic trends by classification of circulation patternsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Radan Huth Abstract The trends in occurrence frequencies of circulation types over Europe and in nine climate variables in the Czech Republic conditioned by the types are examined for period 1949,1980. The circulation types are determined by an objective procedure from daily 500 hPa heights. Both in summer and winter, anticyclonic types have become more frequent at the expense of cyclonic types. The circulation changes are shown to be unrelated to the trends in surface climate elements in summer, whereas in winter, trends in circulation explain a part of the observed warming and strengthening of southerly winds. The trends in climate elements are not uniform among circulation types. In summer, the trend pattern consisting of decreasing maximum and daily mean temperatures, daily temperature range (DTR) and sunshine duration, and increasing cloudiness and relative humidity is observed under the cyclonic types and the types with a well-pronounced jet, but is missing under types with a blocking anticyclone over Europe. Two possible mechanisms causing this trend pattern are proposed: increasing cloudiness, and a process responsible for the reduction of sunshine without a concurrent increase of cloudiness. The latter mechanism can possibly be identified with increasing aerosol concentrations. In winter, the degree of warming is governed by changes in zonal wind. The mechanism of change in DTR seems to vary with elevation: at the lowland station (Prague-Klementinum), the increase in DTR is related to the warming trend, and consequently with zonal wind changes, while at the mountain station (Mile,ovka), the increase in DTR reflects the increase in precipitating clouds. The changes in DTR are related much more to mid-tropospheric circulation than to cloud cover in summer, whereas in winter, cloud cover plays a more important role in affecting DTR trends. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Evolution of the southern Mu US desert in north China over the past 50 years: an analysis using proxies of human activity and climate parametersLAND DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2005X. Wang Abstract Many previous studies have attributed the degradation in the Mu Us Desert in China to many centuries of human activity. The present study includes analysis of proxies of human activity such as arable land area, population and livestock number, and variations of precipitation, evaporation, temperature, sand-driving wind and dust events, covering the period since 1950. It is demonstrated that desertification and vegetation rehabilitation during this period were principally related to the climatic variation, especially correlated to sand-driving winds. It also suggests that the desert evolution in the past 2000 years was controlled by climate change rather than human activity. Although human activity was significant in the desert evolution processes over the past 50 years, the impacts seems to be overestimated in previous studies. Desertification and desert evolution in the Mu Us Desert are mainly in response to climatic trends and fluctuations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Thawing permafrost and thicker active layers in sub-arctic SwedenPERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES, Issue 3 2008H. Jonas Åkerman Abstract Observations of active-layer thickness from nine sites with up to 29 years of gridded measurements located in the Torneträsk region, northernmost Sweden, were examined in relation to climatic trends. Mean annual air temperatures in this area have warmed and recently rose above 0°C. Active layers at all sites have become thicker, at rates ranging from 0.7 to 1.3,cm per year. This trend has accelerated in the past decade, especially in the westernmost site where rates have reached 2,cm per year and permafrost has disappeared at 81 per cent of the sampling points. Increased active-layer thicknesses are correlated with increases in mean summer air temperature, thawing degree-days and, in five of the nine sites, with increases in snow depth. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Counteractive biomass allocation responses to drought and damage in the perennial herb Convolvulus demissusAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2010IVÁN M. QUEZADA Abstract Herbivory and water shortage are key ecological factors affecting plant performance. While plant compensatory responses to herbivory include reallocation of biomass from below-ground to above-ground structures, plant responses to reduced soil moisture involve increased biomass allocation to roots and a reduction in the number and size of leaves. In a greenhouse study we evaluated the effects of experimental drought and leaf damage on biomass allocation in Convolvulus demissus (Convolvulaceae), a perennial herb distributed in central Chile, where it experiences summer drought typical of Mediterranean ecosystems and defoliation by leaf beetles and livestock. The number of leaves and internode length were unaffected by the experimental treatments. The rest of plant traits showed interaction of effects. We detected that drought counteracted some plant responses to damage. Thus, only in the control watering environment was it observed that damaged plants produced more stems, even after correcting for main stem length (index of architecture). In the cases of shoot : root ratio, relative shoot biomass and relative root biomass we found that the damage treatment counteracted plant responses to drought. Thus, while undamaged plants under water shortage showed a significant increase in root relative biomass and a significant reduction in both shoot : root ratio and relative shoot biomass, none of these responses to drought was observed in damaged plants. Total plant biomass increased in response to simulated herbivory, apparently due to greater shoot size, and in response to drought, presumably due to greater root size. However, damaged plants under experimental drought had the same total biomass as control plants. Overall, our results showed counteractive biomass allocation responses to drought and damage in C. demissus. Further research must address the fitness consequences under field conditions of the patterns found. This would be of particular importance because both current and expected climatic trends for central Chile indicate increased aridity. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||