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Climatic Scenarios (climatic + scenario)
Selected AbstractsReconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate-driven range dynamics of Laurus since the PlioceneGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008Francisco Rodríguez-Sánchez ABSTRACT Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio-Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum-entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid-Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO2 -doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long-term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re-open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress. [source] Northern Atlantic Oscillation effects on the temporal and spatial dynamics of green spruce aphid populations in the UKJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2007SILVERIO SALDAÑA Summary 1The role of climate variability in determining the spatial and temporal patterns of numerical fluctuations is a central problem in ecology. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index on the population dynamics and spatial synchrony of the green spruce aphid Elatobium abietinum across the UK was shown. 2Fifteen overlapping time series within the UK were analysed; we used nonparametric models for determining the feedback nonlinear structure and the climatic effects. The spatial synchrony of these populations and the relationship between synchrony and NAO was estimated. 3From the 15 time series across the UK, 11 showed positive and significant NAO effects. In most of the cases the NAO effects were nonlinear showing strong negative effects of low values. The NAO variation improve the explained variance of the first-order feedback models in 14·5%; ranging from 0% to 48%. All data showed strong-nonlinear (concave) feedback structure. In most of the localities the explained variance by the first-order feedback was about 50,60%. 4The spatial synchrony of the per capita growth rates and residuals is high across long distances for those populations affected by NAO. The correlation function predicts a spatial scale of synchrony of about 350,400 km for NAO influenced populations. 5We think that simple population theoretical models describing the link between NAO fluctuations and green spruce aphid dynamics may be fundamental for predicting and simulating the consequences of different climatic scenarios of the future. [source] Erosion predictions with the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ) using different climatic factorsLAND DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 1 2008J. E. Panebianco Abstract Little information is available on the performance of the Wind Erosion Equation (WEQ) for estimating wind erosion under differing climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to assess the fitting of measured and WEQ-estimated wind erosion with different climatic C factors. Results showed that WEQ underestimated the annual wind erosion by 45 per cent when loaded with the historic C, obtained with climatic data records between 1981 and 1990. The monthly averaged C factor (monthly C, n,=,12) underestimated the erosion by 29 per cent, the C factors of each one of the six studied years (annual C, n,=,6) underestimated the erosion by 19 per cent, and the C factors of each one of the evaluated months (monthly C, n,=,72) overestimated the erosion by 31 per cent. Precipitation explained most of C factors variability. C factors corresponding to high precipitation periods predicted low erosion amounts in no-till (NT) and conventional tillage (CT). C factors corresponding to low precipitation periods calculated high erosion rates in CT (143,t,ha,1,y,1) and low in NT (2·4,t,ha,1,y,1). The historical C factor predicted no erosion in NT and 7·1,t,ha,1,y,1 in CT. These results indicated that the WEQ should be used with variable C factors in order to assess different climatic scenarios of the semiarid Argentina. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya: A Blinking FutureACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 5 2009Julius M. HUHO Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8 mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ,2.54 and ,6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world. [source] | |||||||||||||