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Capita Income (capita + income)
Terms modified by Capita Income Selected AbstractsWhat Determines Cross-Country Access to Antiretroviral Treatment?DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW, Issue 3 2006Nicoli Nattrass Despite the recent international effort to expand access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in developing countries, its coverage still varies significantly from country to country and is strongly correlated with per capita income. However, regional and political variables are also important. Cross-country regressions indicate that, controlling for political and economic characteristics and the scale of the HIV epidemic, Latin American and African countries have better coverage than predicted. Whereas the level of HIV prevalence was a significantly (negative) factor when accounting for HAART coverage in June 2004, this effect had disappeared by December 2004. The improvement appears to have benefited democratic countries in particular. [source] Catching Up or Falling Behind?ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2000Economic Performance, Regional Trajectories in the "New Europe" Abstract: This paper examines the trajectories of economic development of European national and regional economies in light of the pressures for greater integration and enlargement of the European Union. Using a variety of data sets, we demonstrate that there are significant variations in the speed and direction of change in per capita income and in productivity and employment rates across countries and a sample of European regions, and that falling behind (divergence) occurs as well as catching up (convergence). Making sense of spatial development therefore requires, we argue, that attention be paid to processes of differentiation and, in particular, to the falling behind experienced by less developed areas in East Central Europe and the forging ahead of the most developed, as well as to processes of catch-up. The paper also contributes to an assessment of the appropriateness of interpretations of growth and spatial development through countering the dominant discourse of convergence in neoclassical and neoliberal formulations and by suggesting that integration brings with it a number of important territorial "costs" associated with increasing inequality. [source] Are aid agencies improving?ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 52 2007William Easterly SUMMARY Are aid agencies improving? The record of the aid agencies over time seems to indicate weak evidence of progress in response to learning from experience, new knowledge, or changes in political climate. The few positive results are an increased sensitivity to per capita income of the recipient (although it happened long ago), a decline in the share of food aid, and a decline in aid tying. Most of the other evidence , increasing donor fragmentation, unchanged emphasis on technical assistance, little or no sign of increased selectivity with respect to policies and institutions, the adjustment lending-debt relief imbroglio , suggests an unchanged status quo, lack of response to new knowledge, and repetition of past mistakes. , William Easterly [source] Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and New Evidence on Coups D'ÉtatECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2000Alexander Galetovic We present a model of coups in autocracies. Assuming that policy choices cannot be observed but are correlated with the short-run performance of the economy we find that: (a) the threat of a coup disciplines autocrats; (b) coups are more likely in recessions; (c) increasing per capita income has an ambiguous effect on the probability of a coup. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence. On average, one recession in the previous year increases the probability of a coup attempt by 47 percent. By contrast, the effect of the level of per capita income is weak. [source] Transition and sustainability: empirical analysis of environmental Kuznets curve for water pollution in 25 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent StatesENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GOVERNANCE, Issue 2 2009Sandra O. Archibald Abstract This paper examines the effects of political, structural and economic changes on environmental quality in 25 Central and East European countries (CEECs) and the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) using selected water pollution indicators and by testing the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Despite substantial research on the transition effects from centrally planned economies and totalitarian political systems to democracy and free market economies, the literature is limited with respect to the short- and long-term environmental impacts. Considering the institutional and structural changes in these economies, rising per capita income and increased trade and investment openness, these countries can be characterized as early, late and non-liberalizers with respect to the start and continuation of liberalization processes , a critical element of the systemic transformation in the CEECs. While trends in selected economic and social indicators (based on the OECD pressure,state,response framework) show that early liberalizers enjoyed positive gains relative to late liberalizers, the selected environmental indicators do not indicate consistent trends with regard to surface water quality. Among early and late liberalizers, nitrate, orthophosphate and ammonium concentrations decline and converge over time. Phosphorus concentrations initially dropped but then increased again for both groups of countries. Using the indicator of biological oxygen demand (BOD) as the dependent variable and a set of structural and economic measures as the independent variables, our econometric regression model provides some evidence for the EKC hypothesis and estimates the per capita income turning point for industrial BOD effluents to be approximately 3800,5000 USD. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. [source] Self-Interest, Foreign Need, and Good Governance: Are Bilateral Investment Treaty Programs Similar to Aid Allocation?FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS, Issue 3 2006ERIC NEUMAYER Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) have become the most important legal mechanism for the encouragement and governance of foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries. Yet practically no systematic evidence exists on what motivates capital-exporting developed countries to sign BITs earlier with some developing countries than with others, if at all. The theoretical framework from the aid allocation literature suggests that developed countries pursue a mixture of self-interest, foreign need and, possibly, good governance. We find evidence that both economic interests of developed countries' foreign investors and political interests of developed countries determine their scheduling of BITs. However, foreign need as measured by per capita income is also a factor, whereas good governance by and large does not matter. These results suggest that BIT programs can be explained using the same framework successfully applied to the allocation of aid. At the same time, self-interest seems to be substantively more important than developing country need when it comes to BITs. [source] The EU integration process and the convergence of social protection benefits at national levelINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIAL WELFARE, Issue 4 2007Jesús Alsasua The essential objective of this article is to measure and interpret the degree of convergence of social protection benefits in European Union member states as the process of European integration has progressed. In this sense, the article analyses the potential role of per capita income and of the socio-demographic characteristics of the population as explanatory variables for the levels of social protection provision in European countries. The empirical study focuses on the period from 1985 to 1999, and investigates whether differences in welfare provision levels decreased as European integration progressed, in line with the convergence in economic and socio-demographic variables between member states. [source] Japan's never,ending social security reformsINTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY REVIEW, Issue 4 2002Noriyuki Takayama This paper examines implications of the 2002 population projections for future trends in pension and healthcare costs in Japan. Current redistributive pension and healthcare programmes have resulted in considerably higher per capita income for the aged than the non,aged population. Substantive reforms are needed to lessen the extent of such redistribution, but political considerations have meant that only incremental reforms have been feasible. A start, however, has been made on introducing private initiatives in pensions; and shifting from the command and control model operated by the central government to a contracting model for healthcare. [source] The Elusive Underpinnings of U.S. Venturesomeness (If Not Prosperity),JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE, Issue 2 2009Amar Bhidé This article explores the question of how the U.S. economy has managed to maintain (or even increase) its lead over other nations in per capita income and the average productivity of its workforce. The answer provided in the author's recent book is that such productivity depends on the greater willingness and effectiveness of U.S. consumers and businesses in making use of innovations in products and business processes. But this begs the question: What accounts for the increase in the innovative capabilities or effectiveness of U.S. consumers and businesses, both over time and relative to that of their global counterparts? After starting with the conventional "supply-side" focus on low taxes, limited regulatory barriers, and strong property rights, the author goes on to shift the main emphasis to the following six "institutional" contributors to U.S. prosperity: ,Breadth of participation: the modern U.S. economy draws, to a greater extent than either its global competitors or the U.S. of a century ago, on the contributions of far more individuals both as developers and as users of new products. ,Organizational diversity and specialization: the evolution of new forms of organization in the U.S., from small venture capital-backed firms to huge public corporations with dispersed ownership, has enabled the system to use the contributions of many individuals more effectively. ,Changes in common beliefs and attitudes: greater receptiveness to technological change has accelerated the adoption of new products in all countries, but especially in the U.S. ,Increased pressure for growth: the "grow or die" imperative faced by U.S. businesses has encouraged them to look for help from new technologies. ,The professionalization of management and sales functions,a distinctively U.S. phenomenon whose beginnings can be traced to IBM in the 1920s,has improved the capacity of modern U.S. organizations to develop markets and use new products. ,The expansion of higher education, to a far greater extent in the U.S. than elsewhere, has increased the supply of individuals with habits and attitudes that improve their ability to develop and use innovations. [source] Skin colour is associated with periodontal disease in Brazilian adults: a population-based oral health surveyJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PERIODONTOLOGY, Issue 3 2007Marco Aurélio Peres Abstract Aim: To estimate the prevalence of periodontal disease in Brazilian adults and to test its association with skin colour after controlling for socio-demographic variables. Methods: The periodontal status of 11,342 Brazilian adults was informed by a nationwide oral health survey. Socio-demographic variables included skin colour, gender, schooling, per capita income, age and geographical region. The association between periodontal disease and skin colour was tested by a logistic regression model, adjusting for covariates. Interactions between skin colour and socio-demographic variables were tested. Results: The prevalence of periodontal diseases was 9.0% [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.6,10.3]. Lighter-skinned black people (pardos) and dark-skinned black people (pretos) presented higher levels of periodontal disease when compared with white people [odds ratio (OR)=1.5; 95% CI 1.2; 1.8; OR=1.6; 95% CI 1.2; 2.1, respectively] even after controlling for age, gender, schooling, per capita income and geographic region. No interactions were statistically significant. Conclusion: Skin colour was significantly associated with periodontal disease among Brazilian adults after adjustment for socio-economic and demographic covariates. [source] Does increase in women's income relative to men's income increase food calorie intake in poor households?AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 3-4 2010Evidence from Nigeria Nigeria; Intrahousehold redistribution of income; Women's income share elasticity; Calorie consumption Abstract This article addresses the important but not widely investigated question of how calorie consumption in African low-income households would respond to intrahousehold redistribution of income from men to women. Specifically, I use survey data on a sample of 480 households from semirural areas of south-western Nigeria to analyze the response of per capita calorie intake to changes in women's share of household income, after controlling for per capita income and demographic characteristics at individual, household, and community levels. I also examine the effect of marginal increases in household income on per capita calorie intake conditional on the income distribution factor: women's share of income. My results suggest that redistributing household income from men to women would neither raise per capita food energy intake nor increase the quality of food calorie source of households in rural south-western Nigeria. I also find that while the income elasticity of quantity of calorie intake is close to zero, income elasticity for quality of calorie intake is substantially positive. I conclude that neither gender-neutral household income increases nor redistribution of household income in favor of women would substantially motivate increased amounts of food energy intake within households in the population under study. However, gender neutral increase in household income is likely to substantially increase the household demand for high-quality food calorie sources. [source] US,Mexico fresh vegetable trade: the effects of trade liberalization and economic growthAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2001Jaime E. Málaga NAFTA; Vegetables; Trade liberalization; Mexico Abstract Studies of US-Mexico vegetable trade have generally emphasized the importance of US tariffs in determining the competitive advantage of US producers. Even so, research has identified at least four factors related primarily to the different levels of economic development in the US and Mexico that also have important effects on US-Mexico agricultural trade in general and fresh vegetable trade in particular. These include the differential growth rates of US and Mexican real wages, production technology (yields), and per capita income as well as cyclical movements in the real Mexican Peso/US Dollar exchange rate. This study examines the relative contribution of NAFTA and the development-related factors to likely future changes in US fresh vegetable imports from Mexico. The analysis employs an econometric simulation model of US and Mexican markets for five fresh vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers, squash, bell peppers, and onions) accounting for 80% of US fresh vegetable imports. The results suggest that the 1994,1995 Peso devaluation rather than NAFTA was primarily responsible for the sharp increase in US imports of Mexican vegetables observed in the first years following the implementation of NAFTA. Over time, however, the results suggest that differences in the growth rates of US and Mexican production yields and, to a lesser extent, of US and Mexican real incomes and/or real wage rates could plausibly contribute more to the future growth of US tomato, squash, and onion imports from Mexico than the trade liberalizing effects of NAFTA. [source] Endogenous innovation growth theory and regional income convergence in ChinaJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 2 2001Yingqi Wei Endogenous innovation growth theory is tested by using panel data for 27 provinces across China. R&D expenditure and openness are added to the standard convergence regressions to control for different structural characteristics in each province. A standardized ,t -bar' test for unit roots is applied to examine the properties of the data and identify a long-run relationship among the variables. By allowing for differences in the aggregate production function across regions, we find evidence of convergence. The empirical results support the endogenous innovation growth model in which regional per capita income can converge given technological diffusion, transfer and imitation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Privatization and Equity in Brazil and RussiaKYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 4 2002Werner Baer This paper uses cross,national data from happiness surveys, jointly with data on per capita income and pollution, to examine how self,reported well,being varies with prosperity and environmental conditions. This approach allows us to show that citizens care about prosperity and the environment, and to calculate the trade,off people are willing to make between them. The paper finds that the effect of urban air pollution on subjective well,being shows up as a considerable monetary valuation of improved air quality. For instance, a representative German citizen would need to be given more than 1900$ per year in order to accept the typical urban air pollution level prevailing in Japan. The subjective marginal valuation of air pollution is compared with marginal abatement costs from the literature. [source] Does corporate ownership structure matter for economic growth?MANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2009A cross-country analysis The role of corporations in allocating resources has been of great importance in the debate about the manner in which enterprises should be governed to enhance economic growth. Corporate governance features seem to be central to the dynamics by which successful firms and economies improve their performance over time as well as relative to each other. In this paper we try to clarify the relationship between corporate ownership structure and output growth by using the data of La Porta et al. (J. Finance 1999; LIV: 471,517) on ownership structure of large- and medium-sized corporations in 27 economies. To search for empirical linkages, we use cross-country growth regressions. The evidence provided in the paper suggests that an environment with a higher percentage of directly and indirectly widely held companies and a lower degree of state than private ownership is associated with a higher growth rate of per capita income. We also conclude that a higher degree of institutional investment does not seem to enhance the growth performance of an economy. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] THE ASTONISHING REGULARITY OF SERVICE EMPLOYMENT EXPANSIONMETROECONOMICA, Issue 3 2007Ronald Schettkat ABSTRACT An update of Victor Fuchs analysis shows an astonishing regularity of the relationship between per capita income and service industry employment. The two major theoretical hypotheses for the growth of the service sector, shifts in final demand towards services and the technological stagnancy of services, are then analyzed. Theories achieve simplicity and clarity from radical assumptions and it is therefore not surprising that empirically both dimensions are relevant. Shifts in final demand to services,especially of private consumption, however, gained importance over the last decades indicating a fundamental change of the division of labor: the marketization of household production, which is analyzed finally. [source] Oil demand in transportation sector in Iran: an efficiency and income asymmetric modelling approachOPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 4 2007Mohammad Mazraati The transportation sector in Iran consumed about 52 per cent of oil demand in 2005. This high consumption rate of oil in the sector is fuelled by many factors including fiscal policies structural, as well as infrastructural factors. The vehicle ownership (intensity), efficiency of vehicles, public transportation, transport infrastructure, per capita income, cost of vehicle use, and fuel prices are among the factors which are shaping the trend of oil demand in this very important sector. Energy in Iran is heavily subsidized and in the transportation sector, the subsidy amounted to $3.59 billion in 1996, rising to $12.43 billion in 2005. Logistic model of vehicle ownership is estimated as a function of real per capita income, length of roads and other explanatory variables. Per capita income is a cumulative non-declining variable incorporating the idea of income asymmetric. Oil demand is estimated as a function of fuel efficiency, age of car fleet, per capita income and vehicle ownership per 1,000 inhabitants. Oil demand elasticities of vehicle ownership and fuel efficiency are 1.29 and 1.11, respectively, confirming that these variables have major impacts on oil demand in the transportation sector. It is concluded that rationing of fuel or upward price adjustment merely cannot curb the fast growth of oil demand in the sector. A policy package including mandatory fuel efficiency standards, scraping of old vehicles, upward fuel price, and development of public transportation could lead to better management of fuel consumption in this sector. [source] NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF CONSUMPTIONPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2009Subrata Guha Abstract., The neoclassical growth model is used to compare an economy with growing per capita income with an economy with stationary per capita income, in terms of equity in distribution of consumption. The economies have the same initial conditions including the same initial wealth distribution. The outcome of the comparison depends on the nature of structural differences between the economies. Even with convergence in wealth distribution in the growing economy, the consumption distribution there may be less equitable and dynasties with least initial levels of wealth may be worse off than dynasties with same initial wealth levels in the stationary economy. [source] The Effects of Case-Mix Reimbursement on Ohio Medicaid Nursing Home CostsPOLICY STUDIES JOURNAL, Issue 3 2002Sunday E. Ubokudom This article examines empirically the effects of the Ohio case-mix reimbursement system on nursing home costs. The results show that case-mix is the single most important factor affecting both direct-care (nursing staff) and total per diem costs. Although other factors, such as bedsize, occupancy rate, ownership status, county per capita income, and the demand for nursing home care, also affeet costs; they have far smaller effects on costs than case-mix. Further, the results show that the cost differentials between for-profit and nonprofit facilities are largely explained by differences in cost response to case-mix and, to a lesser extent, by differences in cost response to bedsize, Medicaid utilization, county per capita income, demand for nursing home beds, and occupancy rate. The for-profit facilities in this study cost significantly less than their nonprofit counterparts. [source] State Support for Higher Education: A Political Economy ApproachPOLICY STUDIES JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001David R. Morgan This research examines state support for higher education by first ascertaining the amount supplied and demanded of this service. The approach assumes that supply and demand occur simultaneously, and that each is affected by higher education spending policies among the states. We argue that enrollment is the most satisfactory proxy for both supply and demand. State policy is measured as expenditure effort. We estimate three time-series equations using two-stage least squares regression with data for the years 1986,95. In the final equation, supply/demand (enrollment) emerges as the strongest predictor of state spending effort. Commitment to higher education (effort) is also especially sensitive to variations in the number of employees (per student). Employee costs clearly are a major factor in fueling increases in state higher education spending effort. State per capita income exerts a negative effect on the final dependent variable. Poor states exert greater financial effort in support of their colleges and universities than do more affluent states. [source] Performance measures in tax administration: Chile as a case studyPUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & DEVELOPMENT, Issue 2 2005Pablo Serra Abstract The article proposes a set of tax administration performance measures and contrasts them with measures actually used by the Chilean tax administration agency. The goals assumed for the tax administration agency (TA) are to maximize tax revenue collection and provide quality services to taxpayers. Ideal performance measures (PMs) would measure the deviation of actual outcome from a best-practice standard, given the value of all variables affecting organisation performance that are outside management control. The key challenge is to build and calculate these best-practice outcomes. In Chile the PM in use, for the first goal, is the ratio of actual to potential tax revenue collection. This PM does adjust revenue collection for variations in the tax structure and rate, but it fails to control other variables that affect performance such as the TA budget and per capita income. The PM in use, for the second goal, is taxpayer satisfaction measured through sample surveys. This seems the appropriate PM, as quality of taxpayer services depends directly on the TA efforts to improve them. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Is Post-Communist Health Spending Unusual?THE ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION, Issue 2 2000János Kornai What factors determine a country's spending on health? And what factors determine the share of spending financed by the public sector? Taking these factors into account, is post-communist health spending unusual? For the OECD economies, we find that per capita health spending is strongly related to per capita income, with an elasticity of about 1.5. The elasticity for developing economies is close to one. Spending is also positively related to the elderly dependency rate, but the relationship is weaker than a static comparison of spending by the elderly and non-elderly would suggest. Even though health spending as a share of GDP in the post-communist countries of eastern and central Europe is below the OECD average, there is evidence of above normal health spending in most countries when we control for income and demographics. For Hungary, the ,excess' spending reached over three percentage points of GDP in 1994. For the OECD sample, four development indicators account for half the variation in the public sector share of total health spending. Political variables help explain the remainder. If the post-communist countries converge to the market economy pattern, the share of public financing will fall, yet still remain well above half. [source] INCOME THRESHOLDS AND GROWTH CONVERGENCE: A PANEL DATA APPROACH,THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2 2006TSUNG-WU HO This paper applies a dynamic panel model to explore whether the low-income countries ,catch up' with the rich ones by examining the threshold effects of per capita income on the convergence behavior of growth rates. Empirical evidence from 121 Penn World Table economies and 48 US states indicates that income levels have substantial impacts on the convergence behavior. First, convergence is insignificantly found in the lowest-income regimes, which is interpreted that these poor countries persist at their income levels, which cause possible income barriers-to-growth. That is, the poor countries may not be able to catch up with the rich ones easily, unless an income threshold is overcome. Second, convergence is significantly found beyond the lowest-income regime, implying that the low-income countries catch up with the rich. We conclude that when a certain income threshold is overcome, the poor countries catch up with the rich ones; hence a subsidiary income policy can be helpful. [source] Demographic Change and Asian Dynamics: Social and Political ImplicationsASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2009Takashi INOGUCHI J11; D63; F2; H55; H56 This article describes the demographic change and its social and political implications in East and South-East Asia with a trajectory up to 2050. It selectively touches on inequalities, migration, social policy, and international security. In the course of this exercise, I present two hypotheses: one relating to the formation of the new middle class, and the other relating to the geriatric peace argument. The first hypothesis posits that when the growing inequalities in terms of per capita income aggravate the sense of happiness among the low- and middle-income strata as contrasted to high-income strata, the formation of a new middle class becomes more difficult. The second hypothesis posits that when the aging population carries a large demographic weight, it tends to be transformed into strong political voice, which is, in turn, translated into larger government spending on social policy items often accompanied by a likely decline in the defense expenditure budget. These hypotheses paint a provocative picture of East and South-East Asia in the next four decades, especially in the wake of the deepening economic difficulties prevailing over the entire globe. I present these hypotheses for further conceptual elaboration and empirical analysis. [source] Indonesia After the Asian Crisis,ASIAN ECONOMIC POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2007Hal HILL Indonesia was deeply affected by the 1997,1998 crisis, more so than its East Asian neighbors. Its economic contraction was deeper and more prolonged. It was the only one to experience a (temporary) loss of macroeconomic control. It also suffered "twin crises," in the sense that its serious economic and financial problems were accompanied by regime collapse. Consequently, recovery was a slow and complex process, as new institutions had to be created, and old ones reformed under successive short-lived administrations. But this process is largely over. The directly elected president with a strong popular mandate is in power. The new institutional framework for economic policy-making is in place. Macroeconomic stability has been restored. Although growth has yet to return to pre-crisis levels, by 2004 per capita income and poverty incidence had recovered to levels prevailing in the mid-1990s, and in the circumstances economic recovery has arguably proceeded about as quickly as could reasonably have been expected. [source] PUBLIC EDUCATION, FERTILITY INCENTIVES, NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFAREBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 1 2010Luciano Fanti I28; J13; O41 ABSTRACT Using a simple overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth, we analyse the effects of both child allowances and the system of public education on the rate of fertility, the per capita income and the individual lifetime welfare. The essential message of the present paper is that developed countries plagued by below-replacement fertility and income stagnation may raise per capita income and the rate of fertility at the same time by increasing the public education expenditure rather than by resorting to child allowances. The latter, in fact, are found to be harmful for long-run neoclassical economic growth and, in contrast with the common belief, for the rate of population growth as well. Moreover, welfare analysis has shown the existence of a Pareto-efficient welfare-maximizing educational contribution rate. [source] From rent seeking to human capital: a model where resource shocks cause transitions from stagnation to growthCANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2008Nils-Petter Lagerlöf The latter is interpreted as trade or manufacturing. Rent seeking exerts negative externalities on the productivity of human capital. Adding shocks, in the form of fluctuations in the size of the contested resource, the model can replicate a long phase with stagnant incomes and high levels of rent seeking, interrupted by small, failed growth spurts, eventually followed by a permanent transition to a sustained growth path where rent seeking vanishes in the limit. The model also generates a rise and fall of the so-called natural resource curse: before the takeoff, an increase in the size of the contested resource has a positive effect on incomes; shortly after the takeoff, the effect is negative; and on the balanced growth path the growth rate of per capita income is independent of resource shocks. Les auteurs présentent un modèle de croissance où les agents divisent leur temps entre la chasse aux rentes (sous la forme de concurrence pour la ressource existante) et le travail productif dans le secteur du capital humain. Cette dernière activité peut se faire dans le commerce ou le secteur manufacturier. La chasse aux rentes a des effets externes négatifs sur la productivité du capital humain. Si l'on injecte des chocs prenant la forme de fluctuations dans la taille de la ressource contestée, le modèle peut générer une longue période durant laquelle les revenus stagnent et le niveau de chasse aux rentes est élevé, période interrompue par des petits sursauts de croissance qui tournent court, et suivie éventuellement par une transition permanente à un sentier de croissance soutenue où, à la limite, les activités de chasse aux rentes disparaissent. Le modèle génère aussi l'apparition et la disparition de la malédiction des ressources naturelles: avant que la croissance prenne son envol, un accroissement de la taille de la ressource contestée a un effet positif sur les revenus; peu après le décollage, l'effet est négatif; et sur le sentier de croissance équilibrée, le taux de croissance des revenus per capita est indépendant des chocs sur la ressource. [source] Mass car ownership in the emerging market giantsECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 54 2008Marcos Chamon SUMMARY Cars The typical urban household in China owns a TV, a refrigerator, a washing machine, and a computer, but does not yet own a car. In this paper, we draw on data for a panel of countries and detailed household level surveys for the largest emerging markets to document a remarkably stable relationship between GDP per capita and car ownership, highlighting the importance of within-country income distribution factors: we find that car ownership is low up to per capita incomes of about US$5000 and then takes off very rapidly. Several emerging markets, including India and China, the most populous countries in the world, are currently at the stage of development when such takeoff is expected to take place. We project that the number of cars will increase by 2.3 billion between 2005 and 2050, with an increase by 1.9 billion in emerging market and developing countries. We outline a number of possible policy options to deal with the implications for the countries affected and the world as a whole. , Marcos Chamon, Paolo Mauro and Yohei Okawa [source] The European Commission on Factors Influencing Labor MigrationPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 2 2001Article first published online: 27 JAN 200 A controversial issue in discussions on enlargement of the European Union beyond its existing membership of 15 countries is the migration flows that admission of new members could generate. Given major differences in income and wage levels between the EU states and the candidates for membership, casual theorizing suggests that the potential for massive international migration is very high. The fact that such migration has thus far been of modest size by most plausible criteria is attributed to the restrictive policies of the potential destination countries, policies that reflect national interests, in particular protection of labor markets, as perceived by voting majorities. With accession to membership in the EU this factor is removed: a cardinal principle of the Union, established by treaty, is the free movement of persons, including persons seeking gainful employment. The factors governing migratory movements between member states then come to resemble those that shape internal migration. This should facilitate analysis and forecasting. A clear sorting-out of the relevant forces affecting such "internal" migration remains of course an essential precondition for success in that task. An "Information note," entitled The Free Movement of Workers in the Context of Enlargement, issued by the European Commission, the EU's Executive Body, on 6 March 2001, presents extensive discussion of relevant information, opinion, and policy options concerning its topic. (The document is available at «http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlarge-ment/docs/pdf/migration_enl.pdf».) An Annex to the document. Factors Influencing Labour Movement, is a lucid enumeration of the factors migration theory considers operative in determining the migration of workers and, by extension, of people at large, that is likely to ensue upon EU enlargement. This annex is reproduced below. As is evident from the catalog of factors and their likely complex interactions, making quantitative forecasts of future migration flows, envisaged primarily as originating from countries to be newly admitted to the EU and destined for the countries of the current EU15, is exceedingly difficult. This is reflected in disparities among the existing studies that have made such forecasts. Yet there appears to be a fair degree of agreement that major increases in migration are unlikely, suggesting that the overall effect on the EU15 labor market should be limited. Typical forecasts (detailed in the Information note cited above) anticipate that in the initial year after admission, taken to be 2003, total migration from the eight prime candidate countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania: the "CC8") might amount to around 200,000 persons, roughly one-third of which would be labor migration. According to these forecasts, the annual flow will gradually diminish in subsequent years. After 10 to 15 years the stock of CC8 migrants in the EU15 might be on the order of 1.8 to 2.7 million. The longer-run migration potential from the candidate countries would be on the order of 1 percent of the present EU population, currently some 375 million. (The combined current population of the CC8 is 74 million.) Such predictions are in line with the relatively minor migratory movements that followed earlier admissions to the EU of countries with then markedly lower per capita incomes, such as Spain and Portugal. The geographic impact of migration ensuing from enlargement would, however, be highly uneven, with Germany and Austria absorbing a disproportionately large share. Accordingly, and reflecting a prevailing expectation in these two countries that enlargement would have some short-run disruptive effects on labor markets, some of the policy options discussed envisage a period of transition following enlargement,perhaps five to seven years,during which migration would remain subject to agreed-upon restrictions. [source] | |||||||||||||